Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side may tighten as some silicon enterprises in the southwest will gradually reduce production or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the demand side has limited improvement, and the overall situation remains in an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For polycrystalline silicon, although the supply side may still have a slight increase in production in October, the demand side is weak, and the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upward space of the spot price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.60% to 8,565 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will reduce or stop production. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply will tighten. The demand side shows that polysilicon enterprises may still have an increase in production in October, organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The overall situation is oversupplied, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to conduct range operations [1]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.25 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 0.09% to 52.80 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 50.25 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.82% to 50,340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may still have a slight increase in production in October after offsetting the increase and decrease. The demand side is weak during the National Day holiday, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The upward movement of the polycrystalline silicon market is limited by the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips [1]. Export and Import Information - **Industrial Silicon**: In September 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In September 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon was 1,900 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Some polycrystalline silicon production bases in the southwest region will gradually reduce raw material input and are expected to completely stop production from the end of October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term, with future trends dependent on demand improvement and effective implementation of production cut policies in Q4, leading to a substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The report anticipates a return to normal profitability for the industry by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from significant technological and cost advantages post-capacity clearance, recommending a focus on New Energy (01799) and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) [1] - Currently, there are about 10 polysilicon producers operating, with overall operating rates remaining relatively low and stable supply of silicon materials. In September, domestic polysilicon production is expected to be around 130,000 tons, which still exceeds downstream demand [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that polysilicon inventory remains above 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend due to weak market demand and ongoing supply surplus. This is compounded by self-discipline in production cuts and strong policy expectations from the government [2] - The market is experiencing a divergence between producers' pricing and actual market transaction prices, driven by high inventory levels and reduced mainstream order volumes, leading to expectations of short-term price stability at high levels [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon contract opened lower and encountered resistance on the upside. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,110 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80%. The trading volume was 400,810 lots, and the open interest was 136,324 lots, a net decrease of 2,072 lots. Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. The supply in August has increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. The terminal demand has been decreasing since June, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply and demand are generally in a loose pattern. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled the market sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 50,110 yuan/ton, down 2.80%, with a trading volume of 400,810 lots and an open interest of 136,324 lots, a net decrease of 2,072 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Polysilicon has a rigid lower - bound support from costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain is not smoothly transmitted to components. Supply in August is 125,000 tons, meeting 56.82GW of downstream demand. Terminal demand has been decreasing since June, with silicon wafer and cell monthly output at about 52GW. The supply - demand remains loose, and the price will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 7th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,580 lots, a net increase of 60 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. The domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]. - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, requiring local departments to standardize supervision procedures and report results by September 30th [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].