Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Overall, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand for industrial silicon remains unchanged, and silicon prices may run weakly. On the supply side, the resumption of production in Northwest China has slowed down, and the weekly production increase of industrial silicon has decreased. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon and organic silicon has declined. On the inventory side, the reduction of warehouse receipts has led to an overall reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SI2511 closed at 45793 with a -0.29% change and a position of 8000. SI2512 closed at 8980 with a -0.39% change and a position of 122104. SI2601 closed at 8965 with a -0.17% change and a position of 201518. SI2602 closed at 8970 with a -0.06% change and a position of 26702. SI2603 closed at 8980 with a 0.22% change and a position of 11082 [1]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of 553 (non-oxygenated) was 9300 with no change, 553 (hydrogenated) was 9350 with no change, 421 was 9650 with no change, 441 was 9600 with a 200 increase, and 3303 was 10500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 9950 with no change, and 553 (oxygenated) was 9250. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9800 with no change, and 553 (hydrogenated) was 9600. In Sichuan, 421 was 9750 with no change [1]. Price Difference - The difference between SI2511 and SI2512 was -375 with a 5 increase. The difference between SI2512 and SI2601 was 15 with a -15 decrease. The difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygenated spot was 300 with no change. The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 385 with a -45 decrease [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt capacity was 280,000 tons, with a decrease from 39677 to 39297. Many warehouses had no change in warehouse receipts, while some had decreases, such as -100 in Zhongchu Lutong (No. 1 Sijingzhilu), -6 in Waiyun Tianjin Binhai, -7 in Jianfa Tianjin Binhai, -56 in Qingdao Port Logistics, -3 in Jianfa Gaoke (Waiyun Longquanyi), -7 in Xiangyu Sichuan Shanghai, -5 in Zhongchu Wuxi, -14 in Jianfa Dongguan [1]. Industry Dynamics - The contract dispute between Xinjiang Transformer Factory of TBEA Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qibu Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Zhongbu Hesheng Brick Industry Co., Ltd. will be heard in Changji People's Court on November 4, 2025, with the case number "(2025) Xin 2301 Min Chu 9566" [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251021：关注供给端变动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/21 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,565.00 | 1.60% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 735.00 | -135.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 | | 元/千克 | 51.25 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 50,340.00 | -3.82% | | | 基差 | | 元/吨 | 910.00 | 2,000.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均 ...

Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the current supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon has not reversed, and there is a lack of driving force for price increases. In the short term, industrial silicon will mainly operate weakly and stably [2] Group 3 Logic - The spot market quotation of industrial silicon was stable yesterday, but the actual transaction price may decline. The price of East China oxygen - mixed 553 silicon is 10100 - 10300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 10800 - 11200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2505 of industrial silicon futures was 9760, down 0.20%, with the main contract reducing its position by 17,564 lots, the position being 192,500 lots, and the trading volume being 6.161 billion yuan [1] Supply - side - The production of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Shandong is currently stable, and the previously planned production cuts have not been implemented, resulting in the accumulation of enterprise inventories. The northern market has abundant supplies, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting prices. The market's inquiries about substitutes such as recycled silicon and 97 - silicon are increasing, but the transactions are average. The powder - list tender price has declined again, and the demand in the silicone industry is difficult to remain stable due to production cuts [1] Demand - side - The current polysilicon price is stable, and downstream buyers still purchase on demand, with no significant increase in the demand for silicon materials. The current price of re - feeding materials is 37 - 39 yuan/kg, the price of dense materials is 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the price of cauliflower materials is 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type materials is 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The silicone DMC quotation is generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price referring to 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The mainstream production devices have gradually started flexible production adjustments. However, the demand side is restricted by weak terminal consumption, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand and try to lower prices. The market trading activity depends on rigid demand. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, the alloy ingot market still has weak demand, the market trading atmosphere remains light, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises is not high [1] Inventory - On April 2, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 70,034 lots, an increase of 324 lots on that day, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a high level [1]