1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to potential复产 of some bases and release of new production capacity of leading companies in the second half of the year, while short - term demand is weak as June's PV new installation decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Therefore, the polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend due to cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. Industrial silicon demand is steadily declining with supply also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state. The current advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 137,977 lots, up 2,460 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,420 yuan, down 130 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43,635 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is - 5,280 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - shaped, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,7386,000 kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the PV industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a PV enterprise symposium on August 19th. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and consider promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. There are expectations of increased supply of polysilicon due to the复产 of some bases and new capacity release [2] 3.7 Key Points of View - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase, while the demand is weak. The short - term demand for polysilicon is restricted by the low PV new installation in June. The operating rate of downstream PV enterprises is difficult to improve. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week, with prices showing a volatile trend. Industrial silicon demand is declining, and the market remains volatile [2] 3.8 Key Concerns - There is no news today. The polysilicon market is in high - level volatility, and the PV symposium has not released much news. The market is still speculating on merger rumors. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]

Report Date - The report is dated July 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is in a state of loose balance between supply and demand, with no inventory reduction drive. The short - term price limit - down was mainly driven by policy - induced reversals, and recent price fluctuations are not closely related to fundamentals. The price has entered a wide - range oscillation range with strong support at the bottom due to spot prices and policy expectations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract hit the daily limit down. The PS2509 closed at 49,405 yuan/ton, down 5.84%. The trading volume was 581,460 lots, and the open interest was 136,295 lots, with a net decrease of 18,873 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly output of polysilicon in the third week of July was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase. The supply in July will reach 100,000 - 110,000 tons, expected to meet the downstream demand of 50 - 55GW. The downstream cell production schedule is also around 50GW. After the end of the rush - installation period, the domestic monthly terminal demand will drop to about 45GW. The spot price ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market News - On July 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,020 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a 23% month - on - month surge and a 12% year - on - year increase, hitting an 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand and Malaysia as the main incremental markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a 18.7% year - on - year increase. The installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a 54.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals saw significant gains, with polysilicon futures main contract opening at 33,350.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 34,650.0 CNY, marking a 5.27% increase [1] - New Lake Futures indicates that there is an expectation of increased production of silicon materials within the month, but the overall market remains weak with a tendency towards a loose supply-demand relationship [1] - The supply side is currently operating at reduced capacity across all polysilicon manufacturers, while demand from downstream photovoltaic components has weakened, leading to a decrease in production plans for battery manufacturers [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment is beginning to improve due to the issuance of photovoltaic desertification plans in the northern desert regions, although polysilicon inventory remains high and is exerting downward pressure on market prices [2] - The recent market dynamics show mixed signals with increased production expectations during the flood season, but the demand is expected to decline significantly in the second half of the year after the end of the installation rush [3] - Overall, the market is facing significant pressure on the demand side, with a cautious purchasing attitude prevailing among end-users following the end of the "rush installation" trend [2][3]

Group 1 - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 34,745.0 yuan, with a current price of 34,770.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.49% [1] - Short-term outlook for polysilicon is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with high inventory levels and slight destocking observed [2] - The photovoltaic installation rush is anticipated to cool down after June, potentially leading to weaker demand influenced by prior overdraw [2] Group 2 - The current pricing in the photovoltaic upstream remains stable, with slight price increases from leading component manufacturers, while polysilicon production plans for June are unclear [3] - High inventory levels of polysilicon are pressuring prices, as previous purchases by silicon wafer companies have not been fully digested [4] - The medium to long-term outlook for polysilicon remains bearish due to significant demand pressures and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and international trade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon market is currently experiencing a stalemate with no transactions reported for rod silicon, while the price for n-type granular silicon has decreased by 2.70% compared to the previous week [1] Industry Summary - No transactions have occurred in the rod silicon market this week, indicating a lack of activity and potential market stagnation [1] - The price range for n-type granular silicon is reported between 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 36,000 yuan per ton [1] - Due to the extreme market conditions, some polysilicon companies are considering advancing their scheduled maintenance from the third quarter to the second quarter, or may adjust their operational load based on actual order conditions [1]