Macroeconomic and Industry Insights - In August, the Ministry of Finance reported corporate income tax revenue of 31,477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Personal income tax revenue reached 10,547 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - Vehicle purchase tax revenue was 1,334 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 17.7% [1] - Stamp duty revenue totaled 2,844 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty revenue of 1,187 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% year-on-year [1] Commodity Market Updates - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease by 8.05% from September 1-15, 2025, with a yield drop of 6.94% and an oil extraction rate decline of 0.21% [1] - The expected export volume for palm oil is 404,688 tons, down 24.7% compared to the same period last month [1] - Coking coal auction prices in Linfen market showed mixed results, with 290,000 tons sold and an average price increase of 54 yuan/ton for 7 companies, while 4 companies experienced an average price drop of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index price at 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton; average price at 73,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [1] - The average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials was 53,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57% [1] - The average price for n-type granular silicon was 49,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.13% increase [1] Production Data - In August 2025, China's alumina production reached 7.925 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Cumulative alumina production from January to August was 60.523 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in August was 3.800 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - Cumulative electrolytic aluminum production from January to August was 30.138 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In August, China's copper product production was 2.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - Cumulative refined copper production from January to August was 9.891 million tons, up 10.1% year-on-year [1] Market Predictions - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce and silver price forecast to $45 per ounce [1] - As of September 15, total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased to 13.089 million barrels, with reductions in light, medium, and heavy oil inventories [1] - Attention is drawn to the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision scheduled for the evening of September 17 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - **LPG**: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - **Propylene**: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - **PVC**: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - **Pure Benzene**: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - **Sugar**: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - **Cotton**: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - **Egg**: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Report Overview - Date: September 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The fundamental logic shows a narrow - range oscillation, and news stimulates sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices are running in a narrow - range oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market [2] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the logic is to short at high prices [2] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of market news [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,915, down 45 from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 87,549, down 43,080 [5] - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790, down 740. The trading volume is 125,550, down 3,232 [5] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [6] - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [7] - The approved RKAB production in Indonesia in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than in 2024 [7] - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly production by about 1,900 tons of nickel metal [7][8] - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [8] - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, reducing hot - rolled coil supply [8] - The Indonesian president will crack down on illegal mining [9] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract is 72,080, down 1,200. The trading volume is 94, down 786. The open interest is 5,571, down 2,123 [11] - The closing price of the 2511 contract is 71,880, down 740. The trading volume is 442,800, down 177,641. The open interest is 346,048, down 2,061 [11] - The warehouse receipt volume is 34,118, up 2,111 [11] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton [12] - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, down 19.2% month - on - month and up 4.9% year - on - year [12] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,490, up 20. The trading volume is 275,841, down 69,772. The open interest is 279,742, down 1,738 [16] - The closing price of the PS2511 contract is 52,160, up 285. The trading volume is 362,759, down 168,019. The open interest is 149,210, up 3,355 [16] - Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.5 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.2 million tons [16] - Polysilicon factory inventory is 21.3 million tons [16] Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia's Wulatezhongqi plans to invest 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 22 billion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan in new energy projects [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Different commodities are expected to have different trends such as range - bound trading, upward trends, or downward trends [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The JH meeting saw Powell adopt a dovish stance. Gold prices showed certain movements, with Comex gold 2510 rising 1.00% to 3417.20. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is expected to reach the previous high. Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, copper prices rose. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.18% to 78,650, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.16% to 22275, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][14][17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.21% to 16780, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][20][24]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation has slowed down. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20630, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: It is in narrow - range bound trading. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,610, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in short - term low - level range - bound trading. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,750, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related**: No direct crude oil analysis, but related products are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend is obvious, and the short - term strength will continue [2][55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market has a slight rebound [2][55]. - **LPG**: Import costs provide support, but the supply - demand situation lacks obvious improvement [2][51]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in range - bound trading, and the strategy is to go long on dips. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **PTA and PX**: They are both in an upward - trending state and suitable for positive spreads. PX rose 0.11% to 6966, and PTA rose 0.16% to 4868 [2][59]. - **MEG**: It is in an upward - trending state, rising 0.02% to 4474 [2][59]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The negative impact of the US soybean oil SRE has been digested, and international oil prices have risen [2][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in high - level range - bound trading [2][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans rose slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][65]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors, and the trend intensity is 2 [2][41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are both in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][52][54]. - **Log**: It is in repeated fluctuations, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][55][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the price elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the steel price fluctuates [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The auction price is slightly at a discount to the market price, and the range - bound shock trend may continue [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled down [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the news [2][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,340 yuan, down 100 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,130 yuan, down 70 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 89,510 lots, down 6,845 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,324 lots, up 29,895 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 123,150 yuan, up 350 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 923 yuan, up 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage [5]. - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The approved RKAB production of Indonesian nickel - mining companies in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6][7]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the RKAB for 2026 starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance and suspended long - term supply agreements due to capacity limitations and a 5% annual production reduction target [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 85,040 yuan, up 2,480 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 75,743 lots, down 86,924 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 108,394 lots, down 9,256 lots from T - 1 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan, up 3,000 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,800 yuan, up 3,000 yuan from T - 1 [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10]. - The auction prices of 100 tons of Ronghui Lithium Industry and 100 tons of Yongshan Lithium Industry's lithium carbonate were 85,000 yuan/ton and 84,388 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary will jointly develop the PPGS lithium - salt lake project in Argentina [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 510,280 lots, down 10,224 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 284,500 lots, up 5,640 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was down 510 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - **Price and Inventory**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with no change from T - 1. The industrial - silicon enterprise inventory was 170,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from T - 1. The polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 233,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from T - 1 [13]. Macro and Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the environmental impact report (draft for public comments) of Haidong Hongshi Semiconductor's 500 - ton silicon - based electronic special gas project was publicized [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15].

Domestic Macro - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the establishment of new policy financial tools to encourage private enterprises to participate in major national projects [6][7] - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, which will exempt public kindergarten fees for the last year of preschool starting from the autumn semester of 2025, benefiting approximately 12 million children [6][7] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued regulations to reduce formalism and lighten the burden on grassroots levels [6][7] Industry Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy for the second half of the year [7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry [7][8] - Starting from August 8, the interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds will be subject to VAT again [7][8] Local Policy - The Hangzhou Municipal Committee emphasized cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, with subsidies up to 10 million yuan [8][9] - The Guangdong Provincial Financial Management Bureau issued guidelines for loan interest subsidies for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises [8][9] Overseas Dynamics - On August 2, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not reached agreements with the U.S., effective from August 7, 2025 [9][25] - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase oil production in September [9][25] - The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% on August 7 [9][25]

Report Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Market Performance - Multiple contracts of polysilicon declined significantly. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,330 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.88%. The trading volume was 433,130 lots, and the open interest was 127,587 lots, a net increase of 20,838 lots [4] Future Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices. It has ended its previous adjustment and returned to range - bound trading. The price increase in the photovoltaic industry has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the pressure of a sharp decline in terminal demand has gradually spread upstream, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand relationship remains loose. Currently, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled market sentiment. Prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with 47,000 yuan as a short - term support level [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline. On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025. According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic components was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]