Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report by Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For nickel, new disturbances from Indonesia have emerged, and the departure of pre - holiday funds limits price elasticity. For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [2][4] Summary of Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,350 yuan, a decrease of 1,170 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,740 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 135,669, and that of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 61,676 [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for certain products. China has implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia may adjust the nickel ore production quota and revise the benchmark price formula. There are also issues such as mine violations, port monopolies, and ship accidents [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [10] 2. Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Downstream replenishment has temporarily ended, and the pre - holiday price fluctuation on the disk has decreased [12] Summary of Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 137,340 yuan, an increase of 340 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 10,090, and the open interest increased by 1,918. The spot - 2605 basis was - 1,340 yuan [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada has introduced incentives and stricter emission standards to stimulate domestic electric vehicle production. Whensheng Technology has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Huineng Technology [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For industrial silicon, a small number of upstream producers have resumed production, and the sentiment has suppressed the price on the disk. For polysilicon, it is in a spot vacuum period, and attention should be paid to post - holiday transactions [17] Summary of Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,375 yuan, a decrease of 75 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 11,212, and the open interest increased by 8,477. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 48,950 yuan, a decrease of 420 yuan [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada has launched a second anti - dumping and anti - subsidy sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and laminates [17][19] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend, while that of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on February 10, 2026, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia [2][4] - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has moved up [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Inventory has accumulated, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2][15] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot transactions [2][16] Summary by Commodity Nickel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,520 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 417,105 lots, showing a significant decline. The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,600 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and there are plans to adjust nickel ore production targets. There are also issues such as potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land by some mines, and the investigation of monopoly behavior in the port of IMIP Park [4][5][7] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Stainless steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,735 yuan, and the trading volume was 202,243 lots, showing a downward trend. The prices of various stainless steel products in the market also had different changes [4] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Lithium carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 137,000 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators compared to previous periods. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts in the industrial chain also showed different fluctuations [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Beijing has launched an automobile trade - in subsidy plan, and Ningxia's cumulative external power transmission has exceeded 900 billion kWh [13][14] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [14] Industrial silicon - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,450 yuan/ton, and the industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.2 million tons, showing an upward trend [16] - **Macro and industry news**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will decline compared to 2025 and will return to an upward trend after 2027 [16][18] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18] Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,370 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 34.1 million tons, showing an increase [16] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The marginal situation is dominated by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts are occurring in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the lower end [2][6]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in the macro - sentiment of commodities [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][16]. - Polysilicon: It is in a range - bound pattern [2][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 134,430, down 3,250 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,810, down 15 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads are also provided [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel ore production target and revise the benchmark price formula; there are issues such as ship accidents and port monopoly investigations [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral state [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract is 132,780, down 14,440 from the previous day. Other data including trading volume, positions, and prices of related lithium products are presented [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The weekly production decreased by 825 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2019 tons; Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a stake in Huirong Mining [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral state [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,605, down 245 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 49,550, down 1,645 from the previous day. Data on trading volume, positions, spreads, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Hainan Province has announced its 2026 major project investment plan, including 3 photovoltaic projects [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral state [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

Report Information - Report Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The policy aspect remains the dominant logic, with anti - involution vs. anti - monopoly. Liquidity shortage amplifies emotional fluctuations, and multiple contracts closed at the daily limit down. The exchange continues the previous margin increase and position limit policies, making operations difficult, so it is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals still face real challenges [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Multiple polycrystalline silicon contracts hit the daily limit down. The PS2605 contract closed at 53,610 yuan/ton, a 9% decline, with a trading volume of 39,605 lots, an open interest of 58,049 lots, a net decrease of 9,751 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 5,354 lots, and the top twenty short positions had a net decrease of 5,148 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The transaction price range of n - type polycrystalline silicon re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The expected polycrystalline silicon output in January is about 80,000 - 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream is in a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices squeezes the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and components is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively [4]. 2. Market News - On January 8, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 4,390 lots, an increase of 50 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In December 2025, the output of Chinese silicon wafer enterprises was 46.6GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.75% and a year - on - year increase of 8.62%. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in January 2026 will be 46.18GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% [5]. - In December 2025, the output of Chinese cell enterprises was 46.22GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62%. It is expected that the cell production schedule in January 2026 will be 39.06GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15.51% [5]. - In December 2025, the output of Chinese photovoltaic module enterprises was 35.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.59%. It is expected that the photovoltaic module production schedule in January 2026 will be 31.14GW, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of polysilicon is holding up, with the average price of n-type polysilicon reported by the Silicon Industry Association at 59,200 yuan/ton. However, the fundamentals still face real challenges. The expected polysilicon output in January is about 80,000 - 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream is in a cycle of production cuts, the sharp rise in silver prices is squeezing the profits of photovoltaic products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. The futures price has entered a stage of shrinking volume, reducing positions, and oscillating, with high operation difficulty. It will continue to oscillate until there is a significant improvement in the industry and the implementation of unexpected policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract was weakly oscillating. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%. The trading volume was 20,581 lots, the open interest was 67,800 lots, a net decrease of 4,553 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2,569 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,937 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The transaction price range of n - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 7th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. In December 2025, the output of Chinese silicon wafer enterprises was 46.6GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.75% and a year - on - year increase of 8.62%. It is estimated that the silicon wafer production schedule in January 2026 will be 46.18GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In December 2025, the output of Chinese cell enterprises was 46.22GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62%. It is estimated that the cell production schedule in January 2026 will be 39.06GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15.51%. In December 2025, the output of Chinese photovoltaic module enterprises was 35.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.59%. It is estimated that the photovoltaic module production schedule in January 2026 will be 31.14GW, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market: LME was absent during Christmas, while domestic Shanghai copper increased positions to a record level, with the price reaching a maximum of 102,000 yuan, and LME copper jumped to a maximum of 12,900 dollars after opening. The high price may face adjustment pressure but could also benefit from raw material shortages and other factors. The target price is adjusted upwards, with LME copper at about 13,100 dollars and Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [1]. - Domestic Supply - Demand: The SMM spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong widened, and the social inventory increased. High copper prices affected the pre - Spring Festival start - up of copper - related intermediate products, but overseas price differences mitigated the impact of the domestic off - season [1]. - Overseas: Congo (Kinshasa) suspended the processing of artisanal copper and cobalt mines, and waiting for overseas investment banks to update the 2026 copper target price [1]. - Strategy: Observe or try an option combination of selling call options at an exercise price of 104,000 yuan and buying put options at 98,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Industry: Policy guidance on alumina and copper smelting industries was issued, but it will take time to implement. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing, while the supply of alumina is in surplus and needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [1]. - Demand: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 60.8%, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and spot discounts widened. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods remained stable [1]. - Trend: Shanghai aluminum follows the sector's fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bulls can participate based on the MA40 daily line [1]. Zinc - Market: The external market was in high - level shock last week, and Shanghai zinc repeatedly tested 23,000 yuan. The supply is tight, but the end - of - year consumption is weak [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME inventory increased, and the squeeze - out atmosphere declined. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased, and the zinc concentrate import window opened. The supply - side pressure decreased, and there is strong support at around 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [1]. - Consumption: After the zinc price fell slightly last week, downstream restocking increased, and the start - up rate rebounded. The market is not pessimistic about January's zinc consumption [1]. - Trend: With strong cost support, reduced supply - side pressure, and resilient consumption expectations, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose 4% last week but encountered resistance at around 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the spot import window opened. The supply of primary and secondary lead has different situations, and the overall supply tension has not been alleviated [1]. - Consumption: Most battery enterprises stopped purchasing raw lead ingots at the end of the year, and the spot trading was light [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures had active trading after rising [1]. - Macro and Demand: The 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia decreased significantly, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened at the end of the year. The profit of stainless steel was repaired, and the social inventory decreased [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products varied, and the upstream prices began to rebound. The inventories of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel all decreased [1]. - Strategy: Wait for the end of market disturbances and mainly observe in the short term [1]. Tin - Market: The tin market fluctuated at a high level last week, and the market sentiment followed silver and copper prices [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information on the situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa), and attention should be paid to the mining conference in Wa State around the New Year [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices suppressed consumption, and the domestic social inventory increased [1]. - Trend: High - level risks are emphasized. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options with an exercise price of 350,000 yuan and pay attention to the callback range [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures rose sharply last week and then tumbled on Monday [1]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai electric carbon strengthened, but the market trading was light. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited [1]. - Macro and Demand: The demand maintained strong resilience, but the downstream demand decreased slightly this month [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the ore price was strong [1]. - Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price limit - down on Monday, entering the trend - stopping stage, and risk prevention should be noted [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward, driven by the expected end - of - month production cuts and the demand for price support at low prices [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal, the core raw material, remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The weekly supply decreased slightly, and the start - up rates in major production areas declined. The production of polysilicon and the start - up rate of organic silicon DMC have different situations [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory in major areas increased slightly [1]. - Trend: The demand still has pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures price may remain firm, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price rose and then fell last week, with policy support but also affected by regulatory strengthening and the approaching holiday. The spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply - Demand: The supply increased slightly, and the demand was affected by rising auxiliary material costs. The price increase has not led to actual transactions [1]. - Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory increased [1]. - Trend: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game, and the futures price will probably fluctuate at a high level. Risk control should be noted [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, closing at 56,500 yuan per ton, with a decline of 4.84% [2][7] - The trading volume decreased by 23,500 contracts compared to the previous trading day, totaling 95,600 contracts [2][7] - Recent price declines are attributed to the diminishing impact of policies, industry self-discipline, and inventory management, alongside a seasonal demand contraction [2][8] Group 2 - The basic demand is weak due to the off-peak season, leading to reduced production in downstream sectors and low purchasing activity [8] - According to SMM research, polysilicon production is expected to decrease by approximately 16% in December, with global battery cell production estimated at 48.7 GW, a month-over-month decrease of 12.5% [8] - The exchange has implemented risk control measures, including raising the margin for speculative and hedging transactions to 15% starting December 30, which has increased trading costs and contributed to the recent price drop [8]