2026.01. 11 本文字数：1876，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 在美元信用承压、全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，美元与人民币的中期走势以及未来国际货币体系的演变，成为 市场高度关注的核心议题。 在1月10日举行的"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛"年会上，多位中外资机构首席经济学家围绕美元前景、人民币汇 率区间以及全球货币体系可能出现的结构性变化展开深入讨论。 与会专家普遍认为，美元仍具韧性但长期地位面临"渐进去魅"，人民币则有望在可控前提下实现温和升值，而未来 国际货币体系或将呈现更加多极化的格局。 美元与人民币走势：短期波动与中期"收敛" 围绕2026年至2027年的汇率走势，与会专家认为，美元指数已进入阶段性调整区间，但并非单边下行；人民币短 期存在升值空间，但难以通过大幅升值来解决结构性经济问题。 回顾美元近期走势，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强指出，美国当前的高债务、高赤字环境，叠加以高增长、 相对高通胀来压低实际利率的"化债"路径，使美元面临贬值压力。过去一年美元指数明显回落，但这一贬值更多体 现在美元对欧元等发达经济体货币之间的相对变化。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙 ...

在美元信用承压、全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，美元与人民币的中期走势以及未来国际货币体系的 演变，成为市场高度关注的核心议题。 在人民币走势上，邢自强认为，短期内人民币具备一定升值基础，尤其是在美元走弱、季节性结汇等因 素推动下，不排除阶段性触及6.8附近水平。但从全年甚至中期来看，汇率仍可能回归基本面中枢，围 绕7左右波动。 智汇集团首席经济学家夏春则认为，若美国年内出现三次降息，人民币在今年触及6.8并非没有可能。 杨德龙也认为，美元走弱的背景下，人民币升值趋势已经形成，中期升至6.8甚至更高水平并非不可想 象。 渐进去美元化、更加多元的货币格局。 在1月10日举行的"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛"年会上，多位中外资机构首席经济学家围绕美元前 景、人民币汇率区间以及全球货币体系可能出现的结构性变化展开深入讨论。 与会专家普遍认为，美元仍具韧性但长期地位面临"渐进去魅"，人民币则有望在可控前提下实现温和升 值，而未来国际货币体系或将呈现更加多极化的格局。 美元与人民币走势：短期波动与中期"收敛" 围绕2026年至2027年的汇率走势，与会专家认为，美元指数已进入阶段性调整区间，但并非单边下行； 人民币短期 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that as of the end of Q2 2025, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995, while the Chinese yuan has made significant inroads in international energy settlements, particularly with Saudi Arabia [3] - The structural weakening of the petrodollar system is accelerating, highlighted by Saudi Arabia's shift towards multi-currency settlement mechanisms and the completion of the first oil transaction using digital yuan, significantly reducing transaction times [3][4] - The transition from a petrodollar system to a multi-currency framework is driven by concerns over the risks associated with dollar dependency and the strategic diversification efforts of oil-producing countries [4][5] Group 1: Energy Settlement Changes - The shift in the Middle Eastern energy settlement system is rooted in a profound change in the stance of oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has expressed openness to using currencies other than the dollar for oil transactions [4] - The geopolitical risks associated with the dollar system, especially following the financial sanctions against Russia, have prompted oil-producing nations to seek alternatives to reduce reliance on a single currency [4][5] - China's position as the largest energy importer and its growing trade with Saudi Arabia, which reached $107.53 billion in 2024, underscores the importance of diversifying currency use in energy transactions [4] Group 2: Financial Circulation and Investment - Establishing a financial circulation system that allows yuan to flow in and out of the Middle East is crucial for the yuan's acceptance as a stable currency [10] - The issuance of yuan-denominated sovereign bonds by China in the Middle East, which saw a subscription rate of nearly 20 times the amount offered, reflects strong investor confidence in Chinese credit [10][12] - The expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the establishment of currency swap agreements with over 40 countries facilitate the use of yuan in international trade and investment [11][12] Group 3: Economic Cooperation and Trust - The deepening of economic cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries, moving beyond oil trade to infrastructure and technology, is essential for building trust in the yuan [14][15] - Projects like the China-Saudi Arabia Special Economic Zone and the Jizan Economic City highlight the growing demand for yuan-denominated transactions in various sectors [14][15] - The collaboration in green energy and high-tech sectors further solidifies the reliability of China as a partner, enhancing the yuan's stability and acceptance [15][16] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Challenges - The decline of the petrodollar system is influenced by historical factors, including the US's use of financial sanctions, which have raised concerns among traditional allies about the risks of dollar dependency [19][20] - Despite the weakening of the petrodollar, the dollar's entrenched position in global trade and finance presents challenges for the yuan's internationalization [20][22] - The geopolitical dynamics and the US's potential response to the de-dollarization trend could pose significant hurdles for the yuan's rise as a global currency [20][22] Conclusion - The transition towards a multi-currency system is underway, with the yuan gaining traction in the Middle East, signaling a shift away from dollar dominance and towards a more balanced international monetary order [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent expansion of China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) signifies a strategic move towards enhancing the internationalization of the Renminbi, aiming to challenge the dominance of the US dollar and promote a multipolar global currency order [3][10][12] Group 1: Strategic Developments - CIPS has signed direct participation agreements with six foreign institutions, including banks from South Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, marking a significant step in expanding its global reach [1][3] - The inclusion of the African Export-Import Bank is particularly noteworthy, as it opens access to a broader financial network across 52 African countries [3][4] - The CIPS expansion is seen as a response to the increasing global demand for a diversified payment system, moving away from reliance on a single sovereign currency [4][10] Group 2: Economic Implications - The ability to settle transactions in Renminbi directly through local banks in resource-rich regions like Africa and the Middle East is expected to enhance the currency's utility in global commodity trade [6][9] - The launch of China's international letter of credit business allows companies to issue letters of credit in Renminbi, providing a reliable alternative to the dollar-dominated system [7][9] - This development is anticipated to facilitate smoother trade financing and settlement processes, particularly for emerging markets seeking more efficient payment channels [9][10] Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Despite the strategic advancements, the Renminbi's international payment network faces challenges, including liquidity issues and geopolitical risks that could impact its adoption [13][15] - The need for robust legal frameworks and regulatory transparency is emphasized to build trust in the Renminbi as a viable alternative to the dollar [15] - Historical lessons from the euro's challenge to the dollar highlight the importance of integrating payment systems with trade scenarios to ensure effective penetration in global markets [13][15]