Group 1 - The core logic of the upcoming A-share bull market in 2025 is driven by the rise of national fortunes, which injects strong momentum into the capital market through institutional adjustments, technological breakthroughs, and major power dynamics [1] - The meeting in February 2025 between top leaders and private entrepreneurs marked a turning point, correcting previous restrictive policies and optimizing the institutional environment for private high-tech enterprises, enhancing long-term market expectations [3] - Breakthroughs in technology, such as the DeepSeek model and advancements in robotics, have positioned AI and semiconductor assets as new hotspots in the capital market, reflecting the technological foundation of the national fortune bull market [4] Group 2 - In the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, China demonstrated strong countermeasures against unilateral tariffs from the U.S., showcasing its ability to effectively respond in trade negotiations [4] - The military and diplomatic strategies employed by China have not only safeguarded national interests but also enhanced the country's image as a responsible major power, boosting confidence in the capital market [4] - The combination of institutional support for the private economy, technological breakthroughs, and strengthened national power dynamics distinguishes the 2025 bull market from previous cycles, transforming abstract concepts of national fortune into tangible growth drivers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical attempts of various companies to challenge Kweichow Moutai's dominance in the A-share market, highlighting the cyclical nature of these challenges and the eventual decline of most contenders. Group 1: Historical Challenges to Kweichow Moutai - China Shipbuilding, originally known as Hudong Heavy Machinery, became the highest-priced stock in A-shares in 2007, reaching 111.62 yuan before a significant market crash [5]. - Following the 2007 peak, China Shipbuilding's stock plummeted to around 10 yuan by 2018, while Moutai's price rose to 500 yuan [6]. - Other companies like Shenzhou Taiyue and Yanghe Distillery made brief attempts to surpass Moutai but ultimately failed to maintain their positions [9][13]. Group 2: Yanghe Distillery's Rise and Fall - Yanghe Distillery capitalized on the booming white liquor market and innovative marketing strategies, briefly surpassing Moutai in 2010 with a closing price of 146.87 yuan [10][11]. - However, after government regulations on public spending, Yanghe's stock price fell from around 70 yuan to below 20 yuan [11]. Group 3: Other Notable Contenders - Companies like Wanshu Technology and Feitian Chengxin also attempted to challenge Moutai during market booms but faced significant declines post-peak [16][18]. - All-in-one education company Quanta Education saw its stock soar to 467 yuan in 2015 but subsequently crashed to around 3 yuan due to unsustainable valuations [19][22]. Group 4: Current Context and Future Challenges - The article notes that since 2013, despite a generally weak macroeconomic environment, several companies have emerged to challenge Moutai, with the latest being Cambrian [23]. - Cambrian's challenge is set against a backdrop of Moutai's declining stock price and the resurgence of interest in semiconductor stocks, reminiscent of past challenges [23].

Core Insights - The rise of major powers is closely linked to the shift of global financial centers, influencing the trajectory of global dynamics over the past 500 years [1][4]. Historical Context - The Netherlands emerged as a global power from the 17th century, developing its transportation industry and establishing the first joint-stock company, with Amsterdam becoming the world's financial center [1][3]. - Following the Netherlands, Britain established its own East India Company and took control of New Amsterdam, renaming it New York, marking the beginning of British global dominance from 1714 to 1944 [3][4]. Transition of Financial Power - The Bretton Woods Conference marked a significant transition where the British pound was replaced by the US dollar as the international reserve currency, with the dollar pegged to gold at $35 per ounce [4][5]. - The US dollar's detachment from gold in 1971 and its subsequent linkage to oil solidified the US's financial dominance, which is projected to last until 2025, totaling 81 years [5][6]. Current Economic Landscape - The US GDP stands at $29.2 trillion, while China's GDP is approximately $18.4 trillion, indicating that China's economy is about 66% the size of the US economy [5][6]. - The total market capitalization of US securities markets is around $64 trillion, compared to China's approximately $12 trillion, highlighting a significant gap in financial market size [6]. Implications for China - China's rise is driven by a dual engine of manufacturing and finance, emphasizing the need for coordinated development in both sectors to achieve its goals [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that the success of rising powers is often tied to their financial systems, indicating that China must prioritize financial development to secure its position as a global power [6].