1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the commodity market was weak on February 6, with the vegetable oil sector mainly in a weak oscillation. The prices of various oil futures contracts showed different changes, and the inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased week - on - week. For the oil market, due to factors such as the unstable situation in the Middle East, US biodiesel policies, and changes in production and exports of palm oil, the market is expected to be volatile. For the two - meal market, although there is an external input cost increase, due to domestic auction expectations and the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market is mainly in a weak and narrow - range oscillation, and is likely to be under pressure after the Spring Festival [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Vegetable Oil**: On February 6, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8102 yuan/ton, down 0.02% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 14,549 lots; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8054 yuan/ton, up 0.10% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,551 lots. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9026 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,261 lots; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8998 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,111 lots. The rapeseed oil main contract OI2609 closed at 9090 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,447 lots; the second - main contract OI2605 closed at 9144 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,911 lots [1] - **Two - Meal**: On February 6, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5,5549 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2858 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5,583 lots. The rapeseed meal main contract RM2605 closed at 2239 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 12,185 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2286 yuan/ton, up 0.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1,045 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Vegetable Oil**: Crude oil futures fell nearly 3% as supply concerns eased before the US - Iran talks. The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons. Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, imports were 40,000 tons, consumption was 340,000 tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons. Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 17.9% compared with December. In 2025, Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, with a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [1] - **Two - Meal**: Trump said that he had a "very positive" call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and China agreed to increase soybean purchases from the US from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. The ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.79 million tons. The AgRural predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be 181 million tons. As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete. As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,200 tons, and the contract volume was 4.9937 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 762,200 tons. The domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the contract volume was 0 tons. The domestic imported soybean inventory was 6.8483 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 343,500 tons. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons [3] 3.3 Spot Market - **Vegetable Oil**: As of February 6, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8640 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 536 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9080 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 84 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 335.9 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 726 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 41 yuan/ton [2] - **Two - Meal**: As of February 5, the spot price of soybean meal was 3106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 62,000 tons. The base difference of the soybean meal main contract was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2510 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 61 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Market Logic - **Vegetable Oil**: Externally, the unstable situation in the Middle East made international oil prices fluctuate, but the decline of US soybean oil was limited due to US biodiesel policies. The decrease in January production boosted the expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price was expected to oscillate. For soybean oil, the factory's开机率 remained around 65% in the past two weeks, and the decrease in factory soybean oil inventory was limited. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated restocking of traders would support the base difference, but then the traditional off - season would come, and if the rumor of 5 million tons of soybean auctions came true, the base difference would be under pressure. For palm oil, although the decrease in production and increase in exports were positive, the high inventory of about 2.9 million tons put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, due to the weakening of the domestic macro - sentiment and the expected maintenance of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed at 14.9%, the far - month contracts of rapeseed oil were under pressure [2] - **Two - Meal**: Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' call, the expectation of purchasing 45 million tons of US soybeans in the second quarter and the increase in domestic biodiesel demand in the US made US soybeans continue to rise strongly. As the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions. The increasing sales pressure in Brazil and the falling premium led to the market's focus on the profit transfer from upstream to downstream. The rumor of 5 million tons of imported soybean auctions after the Spring Festival weakened the expectation of supply shortage. Domestically, the logistics transportation gradually stopped around the Lunar New Year's Eve, and the actual trading of oil mills was light. For rapeseed meal, due to the active far - month purchases of rapeseed by domestic oil mills, the domestic two - meal market was mainly in a weak and narrow - range oscillation and was likely to be under pressure after the Spring Festival [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Vegetable Oil**: With the Spring Festival approaching, due to the uncontrollable external macro - risks, it is advisable to conservatively wait and see and conduct intraday trading. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [2] - **Two - Meal**: During the Spring Festival, the two - meal market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation, and it is advisable to conduct intraday trading with an unclear direction. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [3][4] 3.6 Contract Pressure and Support Levels - **Vegetable Oil**: The pressure level of Y2605 is 8560, and the support level is 7400; the pressure level of Y2609 is 8692, and the support level is 7370; the pressure level of P2605 is 9418, and the support level is 7940; the pressure level of P2609 is 9696, and the support level is 7940; the pressure level of OI2605 is 9544, and the support level is 8250; the pressure level of OI2609 is 9400, and the support level is 8400 [2] - **Two - Meal**: The pressure level of M2605 is 2858, and the support level is 2660; the pressure level of M2607 is 2840, and the support level is 2559; the pressure level of M2609 is 2920, and the support level is 2717; the pressure level of RM2605 is 2444, and the support level is 2220; the pressure level of RM2607 is 2429, and the support level is 2200; the pressure level of RM2609 is 2448, and the support level is 2274 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The soybean No.1 market is expected to be oscillating strongly, while the soybean meal market will continue to fluctuate. The domestic sales of soybeans are accelerating, with over half sold in Northeast China, and the price remains firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory is decreasing, and the import auction is on hold. The oil mill's operating rate is decreasing, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, and the demand is strong [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Market Performance of Soybean No.1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 2605 rose after the holiday and then fell back after hitting resistance around 4300. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4200 yuan/ton to around 4320 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price remained at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3070 yuan/ton to around 3050 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price discount widened [4]. b. Supply and Demand of Domestic and Imported Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The sales of domestic soybeans are accelerating, with the remaining grain ratio in Northeast China dropping significantly. As of January 2, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang dropped to 47%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it dropped to 52%, a 3% decrease; in Henan, it dropped to 57%, a 3% decrease; in Shandong, it dropped to 58%, a 4% decrease. In the context of the expected tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned to supplement the market [4]. - **Imported Soybeans**: The auction of imported soybeans has been suspended since December 19. China's procurement of soybeans has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease but still a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of January 2, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.301 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 8.236 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decrease [4]. c. International Soybean Market - The US soybeans rebounded after a continuous decline. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report, which made few adjustments in December. On the one hand, the subsequent implementation of China's soybean purchase contracts still depends on Sino - US trade relations. On the other hand, there is an increasing production pressure of new - season soybeans in South America, and some Brazilian traders' withdrawal from the "Soybean Ban" may increase the export potential of Brazilian soybeans [5]. d. Oil Mill and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills decreased again. As of January 2, the operating rate of oil mills was 48.23%, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.1025 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The soybean meal output was 1.385 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1702 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, remaining at a relatively high level; the unfulfilled contracts of soybean meal were 5.798 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.4 days, a slight month - on - month decrease, at a high level in recent years [5]. e. Feed Demand - **Pig Farming**: The pig price rebounded, and the breeding loss significantly narrowed. As of January 2, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 48.35 yuan per head, a significant narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan per head, also a significant narrowing. The productive sow capacity continued to be adjusted down. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, indicating a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Poultry Farming**: The egg price was low, the breeding was continuously in loss, and the culling increased. The inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soybean Auction Restarts, Soybean Meal Weakly Fluctuates" [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Soybean No. 1: The main contract changed to 2605, fluctuating up and down during the week. The spot price rose slightly, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,100 yuan/ton to around 4,120 yuan/ton. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, with the futures price at a slight discount [4]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract weakly fluctuated. The spot price slightly declined, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal dropping from 3,060 yuan/ton to around 3,030 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, with the futures discount widening [4]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic Sales: Sales of domestic soybeans showed regional differentiation. Due to the quality differentiation in North China, the sales progress varied by region. As of December 19, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 58%, in Anhui to 56%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 64%. Except for Northeast China, which was faster than the same period last year, other regions were slower [4]. - State Reserve Auction: State reserve soybean auctions restarted. On December 23, 210,000 tons were put up for auction, and 130,000 tons were sold [4]. Group 4: Imported Soybean Situation - Imported Auction: Imported soybean auctions resumed in December. As of December 19, over 1.5 million tons had been put up for auction, with nearly 900,000 tons sold in total. In November, China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans, a decline from the previous month but still a 13.3% increase year-on-year. Chinese purchases of soybeans slowed down, and port soybean inventories continued to decline. However, with the supplement from imported auctions, the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [4]. - Port Inventory: As of December 19, the soybean arrival volume at oil mills was 1.9825 million tons, a decline from the previous week. Port soybean inventories were 8.656 million tons, continuing to decline [4]. Group 5: US Soybean Situation - US Soybean Trend: US soybeans continued to decline and adjust. The USDA December supply and demand report made few adjustments and was neutral. There were concerns about Chinese future soybean purchases and the increasing production pressure of the new South American soybean season [5]. Group 6: Oil Mill Situation - Operating Rate: As of December 19, the oil mill operating rate was 58.61%, a slight increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The soybean crushing volume was 2.1306 million tons, and the soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.2236 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: The soybean meal production was 1.683 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.1371 million tons, an increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.736 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. Group 7: Feed Demand Situation - Pig Farming: Pig prices were low, and farming losses were still large. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -189.5 yuan per head, narrowing, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was -130.88 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity continued. In October, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both declined, indicating a weak mentality for restocking. The commercial pig inventory still increased, and it was difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - Poultry Farming: Egg prices were low, and poultry farming continued to operate at a loss. The number of culled poultry increased, and the inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month, and was expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed was still strong, but there were concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]. Group 8: Market Outlook - Soybean No. 1: It will continue to fluctuate as the sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated and the price increase slows down with the supplement from auctions [6]. - Soybean Meal: It will weakly fluctuate and adjust due to sufficient domestic soybean supply, a slight increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that soybean futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.16% to 4120.00 yuan/ton as of August 13 [1] - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August 2025 reached 2.7745 million tons, a significant decrease from 8.0415 million tons in the same period last year, although the daily average shipment increased by 26.51% compared to last year [2] - The European Union's soybean import volume for the 2025/26 season is reported at 1.3 million tons, down from 1.47 million tons last year, while the USDA's August supply and demand report indicates a reduction in expected soybean planting and harvesting areas in the U.S. for the 2025/26 season [3] Group 2 - Industry analysis from Dayue Futures suggests that while weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions may support a bottom in soybean prices, the anticipated high yield from South American soybeans and favorable planting conditions in the U.S. may limit price rebounds [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the price gap between soybean contracts has reached a new low, indicating that soybean prices are entering an undervalued region, while also highlighting the importance of weather conditions and policy impacts on the market [4] - The report emphasizes the critical growth stage for soybeans in August, with potential weather risks due to high temperatures and low rainfall in certain U.S. regions, which could affect yield [4]