Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The soybean No.1 market is expected to be oscillating strongly, while the soybean meal market will continue to fluctuate. The domestic sales of soybeans are accelerating, with over half sold in Northeast China, and the price remains firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory is decreasing, and the import auction is on hold. The oil mill's operating rate is decreasing, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, and the demand is strong [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Market Performance of Soybean No.1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 2605 rose after the holiday and then fell back after hitting resistance around 4300. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4200 yuan/ton to around 4320 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price remained at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3070 yuan/ton to around 3050 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price discount widened [4]. b. Supply and Demand of Domestic and Imported Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The sales of domestic soybeans are accelerating, with the remaining grain ratio in Northeast China dropping significantly. As of January 2, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang dropped to 47%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it dropped to 52%, a 3% decrease; in Henan, it dropped to 57%, a 3% decrease; in Shandong, it dropped to 58%, a 4% decrease. In the context of the expected tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned to supplement the market [4]. - **Imported Soybeans**: The auction of imported soybeans has been suspended since December 19. China's procurement of soybeans has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease but still a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of January 2, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.301 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 8.236 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decrease [4]. c. International Soybean Market - The US soybeans rebounded after a continuous decline. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report, which made few adjustments in December. On the one hand, the subsequent implementation of China's soybean purchase contracts still depends on Sino - US trade relations. On the other hand, there is an increasing production pressure of new - season soybeans in South America, and some Brazilian traders' withdrawal from the "Soybean Ban" may increase the export potential of Brazilian soybeans [5]. d. Oil Mill and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills decreased again. As of January 2, the operating rate of oil mills was 48.23%, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.1025 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The soybean meal output was 1.385 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1702 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, remaining at a relatively high level; the unfulfilled contracts of soybean meal were 5.798 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.4 days, a slight month - on - month decrease, at a high level in recent years [5]. e. Feed Demand - **Pig Farming**: The pig price rebounded, and the breeding loss significantly narrowed. As of January 2, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 48.35 yuan per head, a significant narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan per head, also a significant narrowing. The productive sow capacity continued to be adjusted down. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, indicating a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Poultry Farming**: The egg price was low, the breeding was continuously in loss, and the culling increased. The inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6].

大豆拍卖再起，豆粕弱势震荡 （2）进口大豆大量拍卖，港口大豆库存回落。12月起进口大豆再度拍卖，至12月19日已投放150多万吨，累计成交 近90万吨。11月国内进口大豆811万吨，环比再落，同比仍增13.3%。中方采购大豆有所放缓，港口大豆库存持续回落； 但进口拍卖补充下，国内大豆供应充足。据钢联：截至12月19日，油厂大豆到港量为198.25万吨，环比回落；港口大豆 库存为865.6万吨，环比持续回落。 （3）美豆持续回落调整。美农12月供需报告多未调整，偏中性。美担忧中方后续买船，且南美新季大豆增产压力。 （4）油厂开机率微增，豆粕库存仍高。据钢联数据：截至12月19日，油厂开机率为58.61%，环比微增，近年同期 高位；大豆压榨量为213.06万吨；油厂大豆库存为722.36万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为168.3万吨，环比回升；油厂豆 粕库存为113.71万吨，环比回升，在近年高位；豆粕未执行合同为473.6万吨，环比回落。饲料厂豆粕库存天数为9.23 天，环比持续回升，近年高位。 2025年12月24日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that soybean futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.16% to 4120.00 yuan/ton as of August 13 [1] - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August 2025 reached 2.7745 million tons, a significant decrease from 8.0415 million tons in the same period last year, although the daily average shipment increased by 26.51% compared to last year [2] - The European Union's soybean import volume for the 2025/26 season is reported at 1.3 million tons, down from 1.47 million tons last year, while the USDA's August supply and demand report indicates a reduction in expected soybean planting and harvesting areas in the U.S. for the 2025/26 season [3] Group 2 - Industry analysis from Dayue Futures suggests that while weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions may support a bottom in soybean prices, the anticipated high yield from South American soybeans and favorable planting conditions in the U.S. may limit price rebounds [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the price gap between soybean contracts has reached a new low, indicating that soybean prices are entering an undervalued region, while also highlighting the importance of weather conditions and policy impacts on the market [4] - The report emphasizes the critical growth stage for soybeans in August, with potential weather risks due to high temperatures and low rainfall in certain U.S. regions, which could affect yield [4]