| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 6 日，大宗商品市场走势整体偏弱，植物油板块弱势振荡为主。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8102 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.02%，日减仓 | | | | | 14549 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8054 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.10%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1551 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9026 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.18%，日减 | | | | | 仓 11261 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 8998 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.18%，日减仓 | | | | | 2111 手； | | | | | 菜籽油次主力合约 OI2605 合约报收于 9144 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The soybean No.1 market is expected to be oscillating strongly, while the soybean meal market will continue to fluctuate. The domestic sales of soybeans are accelerating, with over half sold in Northeast China, and the price remains firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory is decreasing, and the import auction is on hold. The oil mill's operating rate is decreasing, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, and the demand is strong [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Market Performance of Soybean No.1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 2605 rose after the holiday and then fell back after hitting resistance around 4300. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4200 yuan/ton to around 4320 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price remained at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3070 yuan/ton to around 3050 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price discount widened [4]. b. Supply and Demand of Domestic and Imported Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The sales of domestic soybeans are accelerating, with the remaining grain ratio in Northeast China dropping significantly. As of January 2, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang dropped to 47%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it dropped to 52%, a 3% decrease; in Henan, it dropped to 57%, a 3% decrease; in Shandong, it dropped to 58%, a 4% decrease. In the context of the expected tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned to supplement the market [4]. - **Imported Soybeans**: The auction of imported soybeans has been suspended since December 19. China's procurement of soybeans has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease but still a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of January 2, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.301 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 8.236 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decrease [4]. c. International Soybean Market - The US soybeans rebounded after a continuous decline. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report, which made few adjustments in December. On the one hand, the subsequent implementation of China's soybean purchase contracts still depends on Sino - US trade relations. On the other hand, there is an increasing production pressure of new - season soybeans in South America, and some Brazilian traders' withdrawal from the "Soybean Ban" may increase the export potential of Brazilian soybeans [5]. d. Oil Mill and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills decreased again. As of January 2, the operating rate of oil mills was 48.23%, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.1025 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The soybean meal output was 1.385 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1702 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, remaining at a relatively high level; the unfulfilled contracts of soybean meal were 5.798 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.4 days, a slight month - on - month decrease, at a high level in recent years [5]. e. Feed Demand - **Pig Farming**: The pig price rebounded, and the breeding loss significantly narrowed. As of January 2, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 48.35 yuan per head, a significant narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan per head, also a significant narrowing. The productive sow capacity continued to be adjusted down. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, indicating a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Poultry Farming**: The egg price was low, the breeding was continuously in loss, and the culling increased. The inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soybean Auction Restarts, Soybean Meal Weakly Fluctuates" [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Soybean No. 1: The main contract changed to 2605, fluctuating up and down during the week. The spot price rose slightly, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,100 yuan/ton to around 4,120 yuan/ton. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, with the futures price at a slight discount [4]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract weakly fluctuated. The spot price slightly declined, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal dropping from 3,060 yuan/ton to around 3,030 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, with the futures discount widening [4]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic Sales: Sales of domestic soybeans showed regional differentiation. Due to the quality differentiation in North China, the sales progress varied by region. As of December 19, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 58%, in Anhui to 56%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 64%. Except for Northeast China, which was faster than the same period last year, other regions were slower [4]. - State Reserve Auction: State reserve soybean auctions restarted. On December 23, 210,000 tons were put up for auction, and 130,000 tons were sold [4]. Group 4: Imported Soybean Situation - Imported Auction: Imported soybean auctions resumed in December. As of December 19, over 1.5 million tons had been put up for auction, with nearly 900,000 tons sold in total. In November, China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans, a decline from the previous month but still a 13.3% increase year-on-year. Chinese purchases of soybeans slowed down, and port soybean inventories continued to decline. However, with the supplement from imported auctions, the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [4]. - Port Inventory: As of December 19, the soybean arrival volume at oil mills was 1.9825 million tons, a decline from the previous week. Port soybean inventories were 8.656 million tons, continuing to decline [4]. Group 5: US Soybean Situation - US Soybean Trend: US soybeans continued to decline and adjust. The USDA December supply and demand report made few adjustments and was neutral. There were concerns about Chinese future soybean purchases and the increasing production pressure of the new South American soybean season [5]. Group 6: Oil Mill Situation - Operating Rate: As of December 19, the oil mill operating rate was 58.61%, a slight increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The soybean crushing volume was 2.1306 million tons, and the soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.2236 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: The soybean meal production was 1.683 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.1371 million tons, an increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.736 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. Group 7: Feed Demand Situation - Pig Farming: Pig prices were low, and farming losses were still large. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -189.5 yuan per head, narrowing, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was -130.88 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity continued. In October, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both declined, indicating a weak mentality for restocking. The commercial pig inventory still increased, and it was difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - Poultry Farming: Egg prices were low, and poultry farming continued to operate at a loss. The number of culled poultry increased, and the inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month, and was expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed was still strong, but there were concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]. Group 8: Market Outlook - Soybean No. 1: It will continue to fluctuate as the sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated and the price increase slows down with the supplement from auctions [6]. - Soybean Meal: It will weakly fluctuate and adjust due to sufficient domestic soybean supply, a slight increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that soybean futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.16% to 4120.00 yuan/ton as of August 13 [1] - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August 2025 reached 2.7745 million tons, a significant decrease from 8.0415 million tons in the same period last year, although the daily average shipment increased by 26.51% compared to last year [2] - The European Union's soybean import volume for the 2025/26 season is reported at 1.3 million tons, down from 1.47 million tons last year, while the USDA's August supply and demand report indicates a reduction in expected soybean planting and harvesting areas in the U.S. for the 2025/26 season [3] Group 2 - Industry analysis from Dayue Futures suggests that while weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions may support a bottom in soybean prices, the anticipated high yield from South American soybeans and favorable planting conditions in the U.S. may limit price rebounds [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the price gap between soybean contracts has reached a new low, indicating that soybean prices are entering an undervalued region, while also highlighting the importance of weather conditions and policy impacts on the market [4] - The report emphasizes the critical growth stage for soybeans in August, with potential weather risks due to high temperatures and low rainfall in certain U.S. regions, which could affect yield [4]