豆一偏强，豆粕延续震荡 2026年1月6日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约节后冲高，在4300附近遇阻回落。现货价格继续上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4200元/吨涨至4320元/ 吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面维持贴水。 豆粕主力2605合约上下震荡。豆粕现货价格小落，张家港43粕由3070元/吨落至3050元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘 面贴水扩大。 （1）国产大豆销售加速，东北过半，国储大豆拍卖补充。据钢联：截至1月2日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至47%，环 比降3%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至52%，环比降3%；河南大豆余粮占比落至57%，环比降3%；山东大豆余粮占比落至58%， 环比降4%。在国产优质大豆预期偏紧的情况下，国储大豆大量拍卖补充市场。 （2）进口大豆拍卖暂缓，港口大豆库存回落。进口大豆拍卖12月19号后暂无公告。中方采购大豆有所放缓，11月 国内进口大豆811万吨，环比再落，同比仍增13.3%；港口大豆库存持续回落。据钢联：截至1月2日，油厂大豆到港量为 230.1万吨，环比大增；港口大豆库存为823.6万吨，环比持续回落。 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean sales are regionally differentiated, with accelerated sales in the Northeast and supplemented by state - reserve soybean auctions, and the price is firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory has declined, and there is import and auction activity. The oil mill's operating rate has slightly decreased, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, while the demand is strong. The soybean No.1 futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal futures will fluctuate and adjust [6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The main contract of soybean No.1 2605 rebounded significantly. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,120 yuan/ton to around 4,200 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No.1 strengthened in oscillation, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 rebounded but then fell back, continuing to oscillate. The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3,030 yuan/ton to around 3,060 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened in oscillation, and the futures discount widened [4] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales - The sales of domestic soybeans are regionally differentiated. As of December 26, the remaining soybean inventory in Heilongjiang accounted for 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 8%; in Anhui, it was 55%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; in Henan, it was 60%, unchanged; and in Shandong, it was 62%, a decrease of 2%. Recently, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans have been continuously auctioned. From December 23, about 600,000 tons have been put up for auction, and 480,000 tons have been sold, supplementing the market [4] 3.3 Soybean Import and Inventory - China's soybean procurement has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decline but still a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. It is reported that the purchase of US soybeans may also be delayed, and the port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of December 26, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.443 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline; the port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, with a continuous month - on - month decline [4] 3.4 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market continued to oscillate and adjust. The USDA's December supply - demand report made few adjustments, being neutral. The US is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases and the production increase pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [4] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The cost of Brazilian soybeans has dropped significantly, and the crushing margin has increased, but the operating rate of oil mills has not increased. As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 2.0644 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a significant decline. The soybean meal production was 1.631 million tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1676 million tons, a month - on - month increase, remaining at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 3.816 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills was 9.45 days, a continuous month - on - month increase and at a high level in recent years [5] 3.6 Feed Demand - In the livestock farming sector, the pig price rebounded, and the farming losses narrowed. As of December 26, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, also narrowing. The productive sow capacity has been continuously reduced. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, reflecting weak restocking sentiment, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price is low, and the poultry farming has been in continuous losses, with an increase in culling. The inventory decreased slightly again in November and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]