豆一偏强，豆粕延续震荡 2026年1月6日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约节后冲高，在4300附近遇阻回落。现货价格继续上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4200元/吨涨至4320元/ 吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面维持贴水。 豆粕主力2605合约上下震荡。豆粕现货价格小落，张家港43粕由3070元/吨落至3050元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘 面贴水扩大。 （1）国产大豆销售加速，东北过半，国储大豆拍卖补充。据钢联：截至1月2日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至47%，环 比降3%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至52%，环比降3%；河南大豆余粮占比落至57%，环比降3%；山东大豆余粮占比落至58%， 环比降4%。在国产优质大豆预期偏紧的情况下，国储大豆大量拍卖补充市场。 （2）进口大豆拍卖暂缓，港口大豆库存回落。进口大豆拍卖12月19号后暂无公告。中方采购大豆有所放缓，11月 国内进口大豆811万吨，环比再落，同比仍增13.3%；港口大豆库存持续回落。据钢联：截至1月2日，油厂大豆到港量为 230.1万吨，环比大增；港口大豆库存为823.6万吨，环比持续回落。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal is likely to continue its oscillating trend. The soybean No. 1 contract will experience an oscillatory rebound, while the soybean meal contract will maintain an oscillatory state. This is due to a slight reduction in domestic soybean production, a likely return to normal imports of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, an increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [4][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal Contracts - The soybean No. 2601 contract is in an oscillatory adjustment. The spot price has slightly increased, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans rising from 4,040 yuan/ton to around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 oscillates, and the futures price maintains a premium [4]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is also in an oscillatory adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal has slightly decreased, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3,000 yuan/ton to around 2,980 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates, and the futures price maintains a slight premium [4]. Supply - Side Analysis - **Domestic Soybean Production and Inventory**: Domestic soybean production has decreased, and inventory is being depleted. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' November report, poor weather in North China has led to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean production has been slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 21, the remaining soybean stocks in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong have decreased, and the inventory in Heilongjiang is lower than the same period in previous years, with faster sales [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Port Inventory**: In October, domestic soybean imports were 9.48 million tons, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, imports of US soybeans will return to normal. However, due to the 10% basic tariff, the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 21, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, while port soybean inventory has decreased [4]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report has adjusted down the yield and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The South American production remains unchanged, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is waiting for China's soybean purchases to be gradually implemented [5]. - **Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory has further increased. With the large - scale import of US soybeans and a significant decrease in the cost of Brazilian soybeans, the profit margin of oil mills has improved. As of November 21, the operating rate of oil mills was 64.22%, the soybean crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, the soybean meal production was 1.844 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1515 million tons, all showing an upward trend. The unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 4.5951 million tons, a decrease from the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 7.98 days, also showing a decline [5][6]. Demand - Side Analysis - **Feed Demand**: Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, pig prices are low, and farming is suffering significant losses. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory is slow. In the poultry sector, egg prices have dropped, and farming is in a continuous loss state, with an increase in culling. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with the northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. Under the agreement, China may increase the import of US soybeans, resulting in a very sufficient soybean supply. The oil mill operating rate drops again, easing the pressure on soybean meal inventory. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of soybean meal will remain volatile [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The soybean No. 2601 contract fluctuates sharply around 4150, with intense long - short competition. The spot price is stable, and the market price of Fujin soybeans is around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands. The soybean meal 01 contract fluctuates around 3050. The spot price of soybean meal rises slightly, from 2970 yuan/ton to around 2990 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang. The basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands [4]. Domestic Production - The quality of domestic soybeans differentiates, and the output decreases slightly. According to the November report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, poor weather in North China leads to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean output is slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 7, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang drops to 90%; in Anhui, it drops to 89%; in Henan, it rises to 90%; in Shandong, it rises to 95%. The high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang are in high demand [4]. Import Situation - The import of domestic soybeans declines in October, with 9.48 million tons imported, a 26% month - on - month decrease and a 17.2% year - on - year increase. China and the US reach an agricultural product agreement, with China set to import tens of millions of tons of US soybeans and purchase at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. Coupled with the previous over - purchase of South American soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be very sufficient. Although China and the US have mutually reduced taxes, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the import cost of US soybeans is not low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans decreases, with great cost advantages. As of November 7, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills is 2.4375 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase; the port soybean inventory is 10.334 million tons, a month - on - month increase to a new high in recent years [5]. US Soybean Market - US soybeans fluctuate at a high level. The soybean import agreement between China and the US boosts US soybeans. The US government may end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the November supply - demand report. Currently, US soybeans may be at the end of the harvest season. Attention should be paid to the report's feedback on the trade agreement [5]. Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills drops again, and the soybean meal inventory decreases. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing declines due to high costs. As of November 7, the operating rate of oil mills is 49.67%, a significant month - on - month drop; the soybean crushing volume is 1.8057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills is 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase, at a high level in recent years. The soybean meal production is 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 998,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal are 6.0015 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills are 7.75 days, a month - on - month decrease [5][6]. Feed Demand - The feed demand is strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and the farming continues to incur losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming is - 175.54 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 89.21 yuan per head. Currently, the adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of reproductive sows is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms also decreases slightly, but the piglet production increases slightly, and the piglet sales decline; the phenomena of over - fattening and secondary fattening increase. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory is 436.8 million, a 29% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 23% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, the egg price drops again, the farming continues to incur losses, the culling of poultry increases, the inventory in October decreases slightly month - on - month, and it may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. The feed demand is strong [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market in Shandong presents a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations [19][22]. - The profit in the poultry breeding sector is poor, while the profit in the pig - breeding sector is still available. The feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong is expected to be promising in the third quarter [13][19]. - Due to policy uncertainties, companies have not made large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year [6][25]. 3. Summary According to Different Enterprises Enterprise 1 - In the broiler industry chain, the price of chicks has dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chick prices falling below 2 yuan per chick at the end of June (about 3 yuan per chick at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, the slaughter link has a slight loss, and the deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales [2]. - The feed cost shows that the corn price has increased, and the soybean meal price has decreased. The breeding profit of 817 broilers is not good [2]. - The daily consumption of soybean meal has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected to remain stable in July compared with June, and if the formula remains unchanged, the consumption will continue to increase month - on - month in August and September, mainly due to the growth of feed sales [4]. - The current addition ratios of soybean meal are 6% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to last until September - October [4]. Enterprise 2 - The addition ratio of soybean meal in broiler feed has increased significantly from 25% at the end of March to 30% currently, and the current formula has reached the upper limit. The future growth of soybean meal demand mainly depends on the growth of feed demand (sales) [7]. - The export of poultry feed has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the sales peak from May to October (especially from August to October) and the off - season from October to December [8]. - It is expected that the company's feed production this year will be the same as last year [9]. Enterprise 3 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while that from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12]. - The oil yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is 22% (about 19% in previous years), and the protein content is lower. Now it mainly produces 45% protein soybean meal instead of 46% [12]. - In the breeding link, except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors such as poultry and aquaculture are not good [13]. Enterprise 4 - The overall crushing profit of oil mills this year is acceptable. Currently, enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends [16]. - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is relatively fast, with relatively small sales pressure. However, the sales progress of forward contracts (after October) lags behind that of foreign - funded oil mills [18]. - It is expected that the feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong will be promising in the third quarter. The soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, but the price is unlikely to rise significantly due to the poor profit and high inventory in the downstream poultry industry [19]. Enterprise 5 - As of the end of June, the soybean purchase progress was too fast. The soybean crushing profit in the third quarter is good. It is expected that the expected arrival volume of soybeans from August to October will continue to be adjusted upward, and the expected terminal inventory pressure of soybeans in September will also be adjusted upward [21]. - The domestic supply of soybean meal in October is expected to be sufficient. The tightness of the spot supply from December to January of the next year and from February to March of the next year still needs to be observed [22]. - The current soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. It is expected that the demand in the third quarter will be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly [22]. Enterprise 6 - It is expected that the soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, and the demand for soybean meal from August to September is expected to increase compared with July [24]. - Due to policy uncertainties, large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year have not been made. The potential risk is that the possible cargo - right risk from December to January of the next year may drive up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [25]. Enterprise 7 - The month - on - month increase in soybean meal consumption is mainly due to formula adjustment. The current addition ratio of soybean meal in chicken feed is 25% [27]. - The feed sales in June were better than those in May, and it is expected to be the same in July as in June, with a month - on - month increase in August. August - September is the peak season for aquaculture feed sales, and the sales of pig feed are also expected to be good [28]. - The forward (October to January of the next year) purchase ratio of soybean meal is low [30]. Enterprise 8 - Currently, some oil mills in Shandong have started to urge customers to pick up goods to prevent the risk of warehouse overflow, but there is no widespread and substantial warehouse overflow phenomenon yet [32]. - The sales contracts of oil mills in July have been basically sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10%. The raw material procurement of downstream customers in June has been basically completed [32]. - The later demand for soybean meal is expected to improve month - on - month. The demand from August to September in the third quarter should be better than the current level. The demand for poultry feed and aquaculture feed may weaken from October to January of the next year, but the demand for pig feed is expected to increase [33]. Enterprise 9 - At present, the egg - laying chicken breeding is in a loss state, mainly due to high inventory. Feed enterprises have reduced the use of by - products and increased the addition ratio of soybean meal due to the high prices of corn and other feed by - products [35]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is cost - effective, and it is expected that the spot price of soybean meal will have strong support below 2800 yuan per ton. The position pressure in June was not large, but there may be some pressure in early July [35]. - It is expected that the M2601 contract may be relatively strong, mainly driven by the potential concern about the tight cargo - right from December to January of the next year [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]