弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约陷入震荡调整。现货价格小幅上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4040元/吨涨至4060元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡， 盘面升水维持。 豆粕01合约震荡调整。豆粕现货价格小跌，张家港43粕由3000元/吨跌至2980元/吨附近。基差震荡，盘面维持小幅 升水。 豆粕或延续震荡走势 2025年11月25日 （1）国产大豆减产，继续去库。据农业农村部11月报告，华北等天气不佳致单产下降，国产大豆总产量微下调19 万吨至2090万吨，仍高于去年。国内大豆开始去库。据钢联：截至11月21日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至79%；安徽大豆 余粮占比落至78%；河南大豆余粮占比落至80%；山东大豆余粮占比落至86%。黑龙江地区大豆库存低于近年同期，销售 较快。 （2）国内大豆进口回落，港口大豆库存回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月21日，油厂大豆到港量为204.7 ...

油厂大豆充盈，开机率再落 2025年11月11日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约在4150附近震荡加剧，多空博弈激烈。现货价格稳定，富锦大豆市场价在4040元/吨附近。大豆基差 震荡走弱，盘面升水扩大。 豆粕01合约在3050附近震荡。豆粕现货价格小幅上涨，张家港43粕由2970元/吨涨至2990元/吨附近。基差震荡走弱， 盘面升水扩大。 （1）国产大豆品质分化，产量微降。据农业农村部11月报告，华北等天气不佳致单产下降，国产大豆总产量微下 调19万吨至2090万吨，仍高于去年。国内大豆进入购销阶段，据钢联：截至11月7日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至90%；安 徽大豆余粮占比落至89%；河南大豆余粮占比升至90%；山东大豆余粮占比升至95%。新豆品质分化，黑龙江高蛋白大豆 受追捧。 （2）国内大豆进口回落，但后期大量美豆或装船。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中 美贸易达成农产品协议，将进口千万吨美国大豆，且未来三年内每年采购至少2500万吨。叠加此前超买南美大豆，国内 大豆供应将十分充足。中美已相互降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market in Shandong presents a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations [19][22]. - The profit in the poultry breeding sector is poor, while the profit in the pig - breeding sector is still available. The feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong is expected to be promising in the third quarter [13][19]. - Due to policy uncertainties, companies have not made large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year [6][25]. 3. Summary According to Different Enterprises Enterprise 1 - In the broiler industry chain, the price of chicks has dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chick prices falling below 2 yuan per chick at the end of June (about 3 yuan per chick at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, the slaughter link has a slight loss, and the deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales [2]. - The feed cost shows that the corn price has increased, and the soybean meal price has decreased. The breeding profit of 817 broilers is not good [2]. - The daily consumption of soybean meal has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected to remain stable in July compared with June, and if the formula remains unchanged, the consumption will continue to increase month - on - month in August and September, mainly due to the growth of feed sales [4]. - The current addition ratios of soybean meal are 6% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to last until September - October [4]. Enterprise 2 - The addition ratio of soybean meal in broiler feed has increased significantly from 25% at the end of March to 30% currently, and the current formula has reached the upper limit. The future growth of soybean meal demand mainly depends on the growth of feed demand (sales) [7]. - The export of poultry feed has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the sales peak from May to October (especially from August to October) and the off - season from October to December [8]. - It is expected that the company's feed production this year will be the same as last year [9]. Enterprise 3 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while that from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12]. - The oil yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is 22% (about 19% in previous years), and the protein content is lower. Now it mainly produces 45% protein soybean meal instead of 46% [12]. - In the breeding link, except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors such as poultry and aquaculture are not good [13]. Enterprise 4 - The overall crushing profit of oil mills this year is acceptable. Currently, enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends [16]. - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is relatively fast, with relatively small sales pressure. However, the sales progress of forward contracts (after October) lags behind that of foreign - funded oil mills [18]. - It is expected that the feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong will be promising in the third quarter. The soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, but the price is unlikely to rise significantly due to the poor profit and high inventory in the downstream poultry industry [19]. Enterprise 5 - As of the end of June, the soybean purchase progress was too fast. The soybean crushing profit in the third quarter is good. It is expected that the expected arrival volume of soybeans from August to October will continue to be adjusted upward, and the expected terminal inventory pressure of soybeans in September will also be adjusted upward [21]. - The domestic supply of soybean meal in October is expected to be sufficient. The tightness of the spot supply from December to January of the next year and from February to March of the next year still needs to be observed [22]. - The current soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. It is expected that the demand in the third quarter will be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly [22]. Enterprise 6 - It is expected that the soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, and the demand for soybean meal from August to September is expected to increase compared with July [24]. - Due to policy uncertainties, large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year have not been made. The potential risk is that the possible cargo - right risk from December to January of the next year may drive up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [25]. Enterprise 7 - The month - on - month increase in soybean meal consumption is mainly due to formula adjustment. The current addition ratio of soybean meal in chicken feed is 25% [27]. - The feed sales in June were better than those in May, and it is expected to be the same in July as in June, with a month - on - month increase in August. August - September is the peak season for aquaculture feed sales, and the sales of pig feed are also expected to be good [28]. - The forward (October to January of the next year) purchase ratio of soybean meal is low [30]. Enterprise 8 - Currently, some oil mills in Shandong have started to urge customers to pick up goods to prevent the risk of warehouse overflow, but there is no widespread and substantial warehouse overflow phenomenon yet [32]. - The sales contracts of oil mills in July have been basically sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10%. The raw material procurement of downstream customers in June has been basically completed [32]. - The later demand for soybean meal is expected to improve month - on - month. The demand from August to September in the third quarter should be better than the current level. The demand for poultry feed and aquaculture feed may weaken from October to January of the next year, but the demand for pig feed is expected to increase [33]. Enterprise 9 - At present, the egg - laying chicken breeding is in a loss state, mainly due to high inventory. Feed enterprises have reduced the use of by - products and increased the addition ratio of soybean meal due to the high prices of corn and other feed by - products [35]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is cost - effective, and it is expected that the spot price of soybean meal will have strong support below 2800 yuan per ton. The position pressure in June was not large, but there may be some pressure in early July [35]. - It is expected that the M2601 contract may be relatively strong, mainly driven by the potential concern about the tight cargo - right from December to January of the next year [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]