Core Viewpoint - The coconut water market is experiencing high growth potential, with a market size just over $1 billion, indicating room for improvement compared to other beverage categories. The sustainable growth is supported by increasing penetration rates and a focus on high-quality raw materials and stable supply chains [1][2]. Industry Summary - The coconut water industry has a clear division of labor, with raw material attributes determining the stability of the supply chain as a key factor. The market is currently attracting numerous participants, but issues such as substandard products are disrupting market order. Future industry standards are expected to favor companies with high-quality raw material sources and stable supply chains [1]. - The market for coconut water is projected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with significant growth opportunities as the industry becomes more regulated [1]. Company Summary - IFBH is identified as a leading company in the domestic coconut water market, focusing on branding rather than midstream processing or downstream sales. The company has a strong relationship with its main raw material supplier, General Beverage, which enhances its supply chain efficiency [1][2]. - General Beverage is the sole supplier of coconut water raw materials, having established strong partnerships with qualified farmers and local collectors in Thailand. In 2024, IFBH's coconut water sales are expected to reach 132 million liters, accounting for over 45% of Thailand's estimated coconut water production in 2023 [2]. - The company has successfully entered the Chinese market since 2017, enhancing brand recognition through packaging, distribution, and online marketing strategies. This has led to a positive market cycle, with expectations for continued high growth in the future [2]. - Profit forecasts indicate that IFBH's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach $0.43 billion, $0.56 billion, and $0.7 billion for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +29.5%, +28.77%, and +25.12% respectively, reflecting the high industry growth potential [2].

投资评级：增持（维持） 证券研究报告|公司专题报告 食品饮料 2025年8月8日 IFBH（6603.HK）： 椰子水行业高增势能延续，龙头优势助力前行 分析师：张东雪（S1350525060001） 分析师：林若尧（S1350525070002） 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 椰子水产业链分工明确，原料属性决定上游稳定性为供应链关键环节 盈利预测：我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为0.43/0.56/0.7亿美元，同比增速分别为+29.5%/+28.77%/+25.12%，考虑 到公司所处赛道景气度高，且未来业绩增速预计维持较高水平，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：过度依赖外部资源所产生的风险、原材料价格波动风险、国内市场竞争加剧的风险 2 椰子水市场高景气度有望维持，格局仍具较大改善空间。椰子水饮料作为天然健康饮品，近年来市场规模迅速提升，但规模 绝对额也仅10亿美元出头，和其他饮料品类规模相比仍较小，渗透率持续提升下预计规模增长具备较强可持续性。由于椰子 水产品原材料主要就是椰子水本身，因此产品的原材料属性偏重，竞争环节更靠近上游，短期内行业景气度保持较高水平， 吸引众多参与者 ...

Core Insights - The rise of sugarcane drinks is becoming a trend in the beverage market, with specialized stores like "Mai Sugarcane" in Suzhou achieving top rankings on local review platforms during trial operations [1][3] - The market is witnessing a surge in sugarcane drink offerings, with various brands launching innovative products that combine sugarcane with other fruits and flavors [5][8] Group 1: Market Trends - "Mai Sugarcane" achieved the number one spot on the local review platform during its trial period, indicating strong consumer interest and demand [1] - The store features a unique design with a circular ordering bar and a visible juice extraction area, enhancing consumer trust and engagement [15] - "Ba Zhi Tea" and "Liang Xiao Tang" have also introduced sugarcane-based products, showcasing the growing popularity of this ingredient among established beverage brands [7][8] Group 2: Product Innovation - The product range includes five main series: divine water, sugarcane, ice slurry, couple, and syrup, with offerings like fresh sugarcane juice and sugarcane ice [3][12] - Sugarcane drinks are marketed as "naturally sweet" with no added sugars, aligning with consumer preferences for healthier options [12][15] - Innovative combinations with lesser-known fruits from the Lingnan and Chaoshan regions are being explored, expanding the product offerings and attracting diverse consumer segments [5][18] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Consumers express nostalgia and a preference for the refreshing taste of sugarcane juice, associating it with childhood memories and summer enjoyment [5][12] - The trend towards "natural" and "zero additives" in beverages is driving the popularity of sugarcane, which is perceived as a healthier alternative to traditional sweeteners [12][21] - The high water content and organic acids in sugarcane juice provide additional health benefits, appealing to health-conscious consumers [21][23] Group 4: Supply Chain and Production - Advances in NFC (Not From Concentrate) and HPP (High Pressure Processing) technologies have enabled the standardization of sugarcane juice production, making it more accessible year-round [10][12] - The ability to produce sugarcane juice consistently has simplified operational processes for beverage stores, facilitating the growth of sugarcane drink offerings [10][12] Group 5: Future Opportunities - The potential for sugarcane drinks to evolve into a staple menu item hinges on continuous innovation and the ability to meet consumer demands for freshness and health [23] - Brands are encouraged to explore unique flavor combinations and expand consumption scenarios, such as caffeine-free options for nighttime consumption [23]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH Limited (referred to as "if") is the fastest-growing coconut water company among the five major market participants in mainland China and Hong Kong, planning to raise up to HKD 1.158 billion through its IPO [2][3]. Company Overview - IF was established in 2013 and has been operating under the General Beverage brand. In 2022, it launched the Innococo brand and restructured its international business to focus on these brands outside Thailand [4]. - The company has become the second-largest player in the global coconut water beverage market by retail revenue as of 2024, with a market share of approximately 34% in mainland China and 60% in Hong Kong [5]. Financial Performance - IF's revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected to be USD 87 million and USD 158 million, respectively, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.3% [7]. - Gross profit for the same years is expected to be USD 30 million and USD 58 million, with gross margins of 34.7% and 36.7% [7]. - Net profit is forecasted to be USD 17 million and USD 33 million for 2023 and 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 98.9% [8]. Market Trends - The Greater China ready-to-drink soft drink market is projected to grow from USD 138.4 billion in 2024 to USD 194.7 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [8]. - Coconut water beverages are expected to be the fastest-growing segment, increasing from USD 109.3 million in 2024 to USD 265.2 million by 2029, with a CAGR of 19.4% [8]. Marketing Strategy - To enhance brand awareness, if has engaged high-profile brand ambassadors and collaborated with top KOLs on social media platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [6]. - The company has also invested in advertising on large LED screens in prominent locations to further extend its brand influence [6].