存款大迁徙：一场静默的流动性革命 根据8月18日的数据显示，沪指突破3731.69点 刷新近十年新高，自2015年8月12日之后，上证指数从来没有碰到过这样的高点。 731.69点，今天上午上证指数冲破这道尘封十年的关口时，迅速登上了中文互联网平台的热搜。但更扎眼的数字是A股总市值首次站上100万亿元。 和以往不同的是这次没有美联储降息助攻，全球的流动性资金并没有从美国溢出，并且海外投行还在反复唱衰中国工业数据。 美媒把上涨归因于"消费贷贴息政策"，他们或许没看懂，自从俄乌战争之后，关税战以来，中国正在逐渐退出美国制定的西方经济学和金融学的体系。 A股的上涨是不是会引发一场存款大搬家的财富运动？对全球资本市场来说A股的上涨影响有多大？ 然而现实是，当A股大涨之后，在中文互联网平台之上，讨论最多的却是中国是不是正在进行一场存款大搬家的运动？ 这场迁移背后是60万亿"超额存款"的堰塞湖正在泄洪。中信建投测算，若按2008-2018年趋势线推算，居民部门沉淀的超额储蓄高达60万亿。当国有大行存 款利率跌进"0时代"， 股市成了唯一的泄洪闸。前海开源杨德龙说得更直白："资本市场走强，恰好接住了这波史诗级的储蓄转移"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in capital is occurring as conservative funds move from bank deposits to capital markets, driven by low interest rates and inflation concerns [2][3]. Group 1: Capital Migration - In July, there was a sharp decline in resident deposits by 1.11 trillion, while non-bank financial institution deposits surged by 2.14 trillion, marking a record high [2]. - The movement of funds indicates a collective shift towards capital markets as individuals seek better returns amid low deposit rates and shrinking money market fund yields [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current trading volume and margin financing balance reflect a burgeoning market, with daily trading volumes reaching 2 trillion and margin financing balances at 2.05 trillion [3]. - Despite this growth, the market is still far from the historical peak trading volume of 3.45 trillion, suggesting that the current capital migration may just be beginning [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The increase in retail investor discussions about stocks signals a potential risk, yet the growth in new accounts is only at 40% of the levels seen during the 2015 bull market [7]. - The initiation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle may further enhance liquidity, indicating that the current capital migration could be in its early stages [7].

Core Viewpoint - The significant outflow of resident deposits, amounting to 1.11 trillion yuan in July 2025, indicates a shift in investment behavior and highlights the need for policy guidance to direct funds towards the real economy to prevent asset bubbles [1][8]. Group 1: Deposit Outflow and Market Impact - The outflow of deposits has disrupted the previously high levels of bank deposits, with funds primarily flowing into the A-share market, which saw a surge in non-bank financial institution deposits by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, the highest in a decade [3]. - The stock market experienced significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.20%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.14% in July [3]. - Trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached new highs for the year, exceeding 15.6 trillion yuan and 21.4 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting unprecedented market enthusiasm [3]. Group 2: Fund Allocation Trends - Public funds attracted substantial investments, with the total scale of public funds reaching 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, marking the ninth historical high since early 2024 [3]. - Bond funds saw the most significant growth, increasing by 507.8 billion yuan in June, while stock and mixed funds grew by 148.3 billion yuan and 121.3 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Bank wealth management products also gained traction, with a market size of 30.67 trillion yuan as of June 2025, offering a 2.12% annualized return, which is significantly higher than the 0.95% return on one-year fixed deposits from major state-owned banks [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Loan Repayment - A portion of the outflowed deposits was directed towards early mortgage repayments, with personal housing loan balances decreasing by 852 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [6]. - Consumer demand has rebounded, particularly in the mid-to-low-end markets such as dining, entertainment, and tourism, with domestic tourism reaching 3.08 billion trips in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [6]. - Total tourism revenue surpassed 3.2 trillion yuan, and outbound tourism increased by over 40%, reaching 89.5 million trips, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [6]. Group 4: Changing Investment Preferences - The diminishing yield advantage of bank deposits is evident, with bank wealth management products and dividend stocks offering returns above 2%, compared to just 0.95% for one-year fixed deposits [9]. - Residents are diversifying their asset allocation strategies, opting for a mix of low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk investments to balance risk and return [11].

Group 1 - Wuxi Zhenhua (605319) issued convertible bonds named "Xizhen Convertible Bonds," which began trading on July 14, with a current stock price of 31.98 yuan and a conversion price of 31.98 yuan, resulting in a conversion value of 100 [1] - The subscription number for the convertible bonds was relatively low at 71,700, attributed to a small issuance scale of 520 million yuan and approximately 86.20% of the shares being allocated to existing shareholders [2] - The bonds received an AA- rating, indicating a strong position in the convertible bond market, with expectations that the bonds could rise above 300 yuan upon listing, potentially providing significant returns for investors [2] Group 2 - The current market for newly issued convertible bonds is experiencing high demand, often leading to price surges on the first trading day, comparable to the excitement surrounding new stock listings [5] - Many individual stocks are currently underperforming, while the market is seeing strong performances from bank stocks and active small-cap stocks, creating a disparity in market dynamics [5] - There is a significant amount of capital on the sidelines, waiting for market indices to break key resistance levels, which could trigger a wave of investment into the stock market, leading to a positive feedback loop of rising prices and increased buying [7]