联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示，当前全球经济正处于多重挑战叠加的关键时期，加强多边合作、维护以规 则为基础的多边贸易体系，对于稳定全球经济、促进可持续发展至关重要。 当地时间1月8日，联合国在纽约发布《2026年世界经济形势与展望》报告。报告指出，全球经济在复杂 环境下展现出一定韧性，但贸易紧张、财政压力和不确定性上升，正持续影响中长期增长前景。报告预 计，2026年全球经济增长率为2.7%，低于2025年的2.8%。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 联合国指出，2025年在通胀回落、消费保持稳定的支撑下，全球经济经受住了美国大幅加征关税带来的 冲击，但投资低迷、财政空间受限等问题依然突出，全球经济面临长期增速放缓风险。 报告还指出，尽管2025年全球贸易保持韧性，但在关税上升和政策不确定性加大的背景下，2026年全球 贸易增速预计将放缓。与此同时，全球投资仍然疲弱，地缘政治风险和财政紧张对投资活动形成制约。 在通胀方面，全球通胀水平持续回落，但高价格仍在侵蚀居民实际收入。联合国强调，各国需要在货 币、财政和产业政策之间加强协调，在稳定物价的同时，保障社会民生和长期增长。 ...

2025年，各区域制造业PMI均值水平较2024年走势有所分化。亚洲制造业PMI均值为50.8%，较2024年 微幅下降；非洲制造业PMI均值为50.2%，较2024年上升；美洲制造业PMI均值为48.8%，较2024年持 平；欧洲制造业PMI均值为48.8%。 中新社北京1月7日电 (记者 阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会7日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全球制造 业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.5%，较上月微幅下降。2025年，全球制造业PMI均值为49.6%，较2024年上 升0.3个百分点，复苏态势仍稳中偏弱，恢复力度仍需加强。 分析认为，展望2026年，全球经济或仍面临不确定性，继续保持弱势复苏态势。但也要看到，当前全球 通胀水平总体呈现下行态势，2026年通胀压力有望进一步缓解。而人工智能领域的投资热潮正加速形成 增长新动能，有助于稳定全球经济复苏的基本盘。面对复杂环境，世界各国应加速策略调整，破解增长 瓶颈，实现可持续复苏。(完) 分析称，从2025年全年表现来看，全球制造业整体恢复力度要略好于2024年，但指数均值水平仍低于 50%，意味着全球经济在地缘政治冲突等多重冲击下，复苏态势仍稳中偏弱 ...

第一种：通胀挂钩债券，稳赚不跑输的"隐形盾牌" 很多人不知道，债券里藏着抗通胀神器。普通国债收益固定，通胀一高就容易亏购买力。但通胀挂钩债券不一样，收益直接和CPI挂钩，通胀越高，利息反 而越多。 澳大利亚未来基金早就行动了，特意削减普通政府债券，大幅增加这类资产配置。数据显示，2025年国内通胀挂钩债券发行量同比涨了60%，机构认购率高 达95%。对普通人来说，通过基金参与门槛很低，10元就能起投，年化收益能稳定跑赢CPI 1-2个百分点。 全球通胀没停，大家都在找抗跌资产。 多数人第一反应是买黄金，这确实没错。2025年全球央行购金需求居高不下，前三季度就买了220吨，黄金ETF更是连续五个月资金净流入。但机构早就不 满足于单一黄金了，他们正悄悄加仓三类冷门资产。 这些资产平时没人关注，却在通胀周期里表现亮眼。看懂它们的配置逻辑，才能跟上机构的财富节奏。 2025年国内基建基金规模已突破万亿，不少产品分红率能达到4%以上。而且流动性不错，支持场内交易，既适合长期持有拿分红，也能应对突发的资金需 求。 第三种：战略小金属，踩中能源转型的"潜力股" 黄金、铜、铝大家很熟悉，但稀土、钴、锂这些战略小金属，才是机 ...

【大河财立方消息】据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普1月3日称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉。他还说，美国将深度介入委内瑞拉的石油产业。 对于上述事件，中信建投首席政策分析师胡玉玮、政策分析研究员杨旭泽近日发表研报，分析该事件对 资本市场可能带来的影响。 其中，在大宗商品市场方面，中信建投认为，短期油价虽小幅上扬，但波动有限，因全球重油库存仍处 安全区间。 此外，中长期恢复过程可能需要数年时间，这意味着未来原油市场的结构性供需失衡将持续存在。油价 因此可能在中长期维持高位震荡，特别是对炼厂高度依赖重油的美国墨西哥湾沿岸而言，其成本压力将 传导至下游化工与交通能源价格，引发全球通胀链条的再度强化。 贵金属市场方面，研报中提到，在风险偏好层面，市场短期出现温和的避险情绪，黄金作为核心避险资 产，呈现温和上涨。 然而，中信建投认为这种短期避险在中期将面临反转压力。随着地缘冲突的区域化与美国财政赤字扩 张，美元的长期吸引力或被削弱，而黄金及能源资产可能成为更具战略配置价值的资产类别。 然而，若委内瑞拉陷入长期动荡或新政府难以恢复产能，全球能源供应将出现结构性缺口。委内瑞拉重 ...

在白银与黄金出现巨大涨幅的背后，一方面与美联储重启降息周期，并可能引发全球通胀再次抬升的预期有关；另一方面与地缘局势持续紧张，全球资金避 险情绪持续升温有关。此外，美元指数持续下跌、全球央行持续加码黄金等，这些因素都对金价构成了积极的提振影响。 美元信用体系发生动摇，引发全球资金的加速流动，这也是引发大量资金流向白银黄金渠道的主因之一。实际上，从近几年美元与黄金占全球外汇储备的比 例变化，我们可以看到美元的竞争力在持续下降，越来越多的资金流向黄金，促使黄金在全球外汇储备中的实际占比持续提升。 随着CME的接连出手，结合26年美联储降息预期有所降温，对黄金这一类非生息资产而言，构成了或多或少的抛售压力。在白银黄金价格大跌的背后，市 场资金已经意识到白银黄金价格已经处于阶段性的高位水平，CME的接连出手，也是白银黄金触顶的主要信号。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）在一个月内连续两次上调了白银保证金，在最近一次的出手中，CME上调履约保证金的品种范围扩大至黄金、锂等多类金属期 货品种，可见这一次的影响力更大，白银黄金价格随之大跌。 CME上调多个品种的履约保证金，为何会引发白银黄金价格大跌？从主要原因分析，当履约保证金 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the volatility in precious metals, particularly silver, which experienced significant fluctuations in both domestic and international markets [1][2] - Domestic silver funds showed a slight increase of 0.75% at the close after a dramatic trading session, while New York silver futures initially surged by 7% before experiencing a sharp decline [1] - The trading day saw New York silver futures fluctuate over 10%, with a notable drop of 1.77% after reaching a peak of $82.67 [1] Group 2 - The decline in silver futures led to a broader sell-off in precious and base metals, indicating a market-wide reaction to the volatility [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in margin requirements for various metals, including gold and silver, which is seen as a catalyst for the recent price drops [4] - Historical context is provided, referencing the 1980s incident involving the Hunt brothers, where increased margin requirements led to a significant drop in silver prices, although current market conditions differ due to global inflation [4][5]

今年以来周期板块涨势喜人，临近年底最近好多朋友来问，周期股还能不能投、该怎么投。 在投资的世界里，周期板块总是让人又爱又惧——机会鲜明，波动也大。有没有一种方法，能把它理解 得更清晰、更踏实一些？ 中信保诚基金的基金经理孙惠成，提供了一套值得关注的思路。这位拥有北大化学本科、中科院物理所 博士背景的基金经理，把他十多年扎根化工、有色等行业的研究积淀，转化成了一套可理解、可执行的 投资框架。今年以来，他管理的周期产品尽力把握相关行业的市场机遇，取得了不错的业绩。 | 产品名称 | 今年以来收益率 | | --- | --- | | 中信保诚周期优选A | 40.35% | 数据截至2025.12.04，基金业绩已经托管行复核，中信保诚周期优选A同期业绩比较基准收益率： 15.39%，基金净值具有波动性，基金的过往业绩不代表未来表现。 他是怎么做的？对未来又怎么看？ 听完他最近的路演，我大概理清了两个关键问题： 1．他的钱是怎么赚的？（投资框架） 2．接下来他关注哪儿？（市场展望） 一、他是谁？——典型的"研究驱动型"选手 背景硬核：北大化学本科，中科院物理所博士。科班出身，博士课题还跟光伏材料有关。2012年入 ...

白银期货价格上涨超过4%，当前在每盎司60美元上方交投。美联储明日的利率决定是本周市场的主要 焦点，与此同时，有迹象显示，澳大利亚正在展开新一轮抗击通胀的斗争，这令投资者感到不安。斯巴 达资本证券的分析师Peter Cardillo表示："我认为，澳洲联储维持利率不变，并警告称存在通胀风险， 而其下一步可能是加息。这显然是一种通胀恐慌。" 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bull market for gold is not over, but a correction is expected in the short to medium term due to rapid price increases in 2025, leading to a forecast of a volatile market until the end of the year, followed by steady long-term growth [2][12]. Long-term Factors - Gold prices are influenced by long-term factors such as currency devaluation, global debt, and geopolitical issues, which are expected to have a lasting impact [7][8]. - The trend of de-dollarization is ongoing, with many countries increasing their gold reserves to support their currencies, which is likely to continue for over three years [8][12]. - Global debt and credit are expanding, particularly U.S. debt, with some countries selling U.S. bonds to buy gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [8][12]. - Historical inflation trends suggest that inflation may rise significantly after 2025, potentially leading to a substantial increase in gold prices [9][12]. - The global economy is entering a recession, which is expected to last for over a decade, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [9][10]. Medium-term Factors - The ongoing divergence in global monetary policies is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment, providing support for gold prices over the next three years [10][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and the current economic cycle suggests that demand for gold as a safe asset will continue to rise [10][12]. Short-term Factors - The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is decreasing, which has led to a recent decline in gold prices, but the overall outlook remains bullish for the end of the year [10][12]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China, have created short-term pressures on gold prices [11][12]. - Recent price movements indicate that gold is currently experiencing a downward adjustment, with key support levels identified at $3,900 and $3,520 [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - Investors and the general public are advised to consider allocating 5% to 30% of their asset portfolio to physical gold or gold ETFs, reflecting a long-term optimistic view on gold [6][13].

Core Insights - Palladium prices surged from $870 per ounce in early April 2025 to nearly $1,700 by October, marking an increase of over 95%, with a simultaneous rise in gold, silver, and platinum prices during the same period [1] - The global inflationary environment driving this surge is attributed to three main factors: significant budget deficits in multiple countries with limited control measures, core inflation rates exceeding target levels and trending upwards, and the easing of monetary policies by most central banks despite rising inflation [1] Price Correlation and Trends - Palladium typically shows a positive correlation with other precious metals, but this correlation is weaker compared to the relationships among gold and silver, which are primarily driven by jewelry demand [4] - The second strongest correlation among precious metals is between palladium and platinum, reflecting their applications in automotive catalytic converters, with palladium used in gasoline engines and platinum in diesel engines [4][8] Supply Dynamics - Palladium is rarely used in jewelry, with its primary application in the automotive industry, highlighting its price trend independence compared to other metals [10] - The supply of palladium is highly concentrated, particularly in Russia and South Africa, with overall global palladium production showing a declining trend since 2003 [15] - The demand for palladium surged due to stricter automotive emission laws and concerns over supply disruptions from Russia, leading to a parabolic price increase in the late 1990s [15] Market Shifts - Since 2021, palladium prices have returned to historical price ratio ranges relative to gold, silver, and platinum, coinciding with peak palladium usage per vehicle and a surge in electric vehicle sales [18] - In the U.S., electric vehicle sales are projected to account for 11.4% of total vehicle sales in 2024, while in China, the share is expected to approach 50% [20][18] Investment Considerations - Palladium presents research value as a potential diversification tool for investors looking to allocate precious metals, given its limited supply and the inability of central banks to print or digitally create such assets [23]