FICC日报 | 2026-02-25 A股马年开门红，关注特朗普国情咨文演讲 市场分析 国内春节假期期间，海外地缘风险不断。首先是伊朗紧张，美伊于2月17日在日内瓦举行第二轮间接谈判，双方承 认分歧仍存，但同意继续接触，美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行。据美国《纽约时报》22日报 道，美国总统特朗普已告诉其顾问，他"倾向于在未来数日（对伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场 更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗"屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。此前，特朗普曾公开表示考虑对伊朗进行"初步的 有限军事打击"，并给出约10-15天的"最后期限"，否则将面临严重后果。其次是美国"对等关税"被宣布违法，2月 20日，美国最高法院以6票对3票的投票结果裁定，1977年出台的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）并未赋予总统 在未经国会批准时征收关税的权力。同日，特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，征收"全球进口关税"， 税率10%，为期150天，以取代被最高法院认定违法的关税，该关税2月24日已经正式生效。当地时间2月21日，美 国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对全球商品加征10%的 ...

最近这大半年，只要出门逛一逛，就能明显感觉到身边的外国面孔越来越多。 不管是一线城市的核心商圈，还是二三线城市的网红景点，甚至是小区楼下的菜市场、街边的早餐店， 都能看到拖着行李箱、拿着手机拍照的外国人。 你有没有发现外国游客越来越多了？ 在北京吃烤鸭要排队，重庆洪崖洞挤满东南亚面孔，成都的熊猫基地甚至成了日本人的集结地。 看似热闹的背后，其实是一面镜子，把我们当前的经济结构和社会状况照了个通透。 他们成群结队逛商场、蹲在路边吃小吃、在超市里成筐采购商品，脸上满是轻松惬意，社交媒体上全是 老外夸赞中国生活方便、物价便宜的内容，看上去一派热闹红火的景象。 很多人看到这一幕都觉得自豪，觉得是中国的吸引力越来越强，才让这么多外国人慕名而来。 可剥开这层光鲜的表象，往深了看就会发现，这份满街的热闹从来都不属于我们普通人，藏在热闹背后 的压力和苦楚，才是我们每天都要面对的现实。 而造成这种反差的核心逻辑，只有八个字：外通胀，内通缩。 先说说让外国人往中国涌的外通胀，这是把他们推到我们这里的直接原因。 过去这几年，全球范围内的通货膨胀一直没有缓解，欧美、日韩、大洋洲等绝大多数国家，物价都在一 路疯涨，生活成本压得当地普通 ...

美国可通过该方式获取全球范围内的服装、石油、矿石等实体商品，多国经济总量将出现虚增，同时推 高全球通胀水平，普通劳动者收入将因美元供给增加被稀释，购买力同步下降。 如果美国新增印发两万亿美元并用于全球采购商品，将对全球经济产生多维度连锁影响。 若美国再次大规模投放美元，市场对美元的信任度或将进一步下降，美元购买力可能出现实质性削弱。 若新增美元无法顺利流出美国本土，将直接推高美国国内通胀水平，加重民众生活压力，同时加剧美国 国债发行难度，对本国金融系统稳定性形成冲击。 当前，多国已针对美元超发风险采取应对措施。多国央行开启黄金储备增持操作，贸易结算环节加速推 进本币结算，沙特等产油国已采用人民币开展石油贸易，去美元化进程已进入落地实施阶段。 从生产端来看，制造业大国的原材料价格将率先上涨，铜、铁、铝、锂等工业核心物资将出现抢购潮， 工厂进货成本大幅抬升，企业利润空间被持续压缩，终端消费品价格上涨压力最终将传导至全球消费 者。2021年至2022年间，美国大规模美元投放引发全球原材料价格大幅上涨，终端消费品价格随之攀 升，同期美元购买力出现稀释，劳动者实际收入承压，即为类似传导路径的体现。 金融市场层面，新增投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is divided into two camps regarding gold prices: the bearish camp, which holds a pessimistic view and advises against entering the market, and the bullish camp, which is optimistic about long-term trends and sees current adjustments as buying opportunities [1]. Group 1: Bearish Perspective - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, indicating a severe valuation bubble, and a correction is inevitable [2]. - If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and delays rate cuts, the strength of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will increase, significantly reducing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts are likely to ease, leading to a gradual decline in risk aversion, which will remove core support factors for gold prices [2]. - Institutions have already taken profits, while retail investors are chasing prices at high levels, making entry at this point akin to catching a falling knife [2]. Group 2: Bullish Perspective - The trend of de-dollarization globally is irreversible, with central banks continuing to purchase large amounts of gold, providing solid long-term demand support [2]. - The weakening of the dollar's credibility and the restructuring of the monetary system will highlight gold's monetary attributes [2]. - Persistent global inflation and geopolitical risks ensure that the rigid demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will not disappear [2]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a short-term fluctuation rather than a trend reversal, with the long-term price center expected to continue rising [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The upcoming U.S. CPI data will be crucial in determining short-term trends; if inflation remains high, gold prices may continue to face pressure, seeking the next support level around $4,800 [4]. - For ordinary investors, it is advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize and for gold prices to regain the $5,000 level before considering entry [4].

FICC日报 | 2026-02-13 人民币升破6.9关口，关注美国1月CPI数据 市场分析 关注凯文.沃什观点。1月30日，特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替5月任期届满的现任主 席鲍威尔；凯文·沃什较为知名的政策主张是"降息+缩表"的政策组合拳，随后市场计价"美联储独立性回顾"，白银 一度跌超30%，黄金一度跌11%创下1980年3月以来的最大单日跌幅，并且当周比特币、贵金属、美股均有所承压， 短期需要警惕极端情绪反转所带来的波动。趋势上，我们认为本轮大跌并不改全球通胀的叙事，本轮海外的核心 驱动是来自特朗普的"一言堂"及其政策，对于凯文·沃什的提名更核心诉求在于降息和推降信用卡利率，以及带动 房地产市场，而相对的，在当下流动性略偏紧的环境中，沃什的"缩表"若想实现，需要更激进的"降息"进行对冲和 配合。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三再次警告称，美国正走在一条不可持续的财政道路上，并将未来十年的 赤字预测上调了1.4万亿美元，部分原因是总统特朗普2025年的税法以及移民政策。 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 ...

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh has been nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with a focus on a policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" [2][10] - Following the announcement, silver prices dropped over 30% and gold prices fell 11%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 1980, indicating market volatility [2][10] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has raised its ten-year deficit forecast by $1.4 trillion, partly due to Trump's tax and immigration policies [2][10] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [3][11] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, with the one-year re-lending rate now at 1.25% [3][11] - China's January CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 0.2%, while the PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4% [4][11] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in January, with the growth rate reaching its fastest level since 2022, driven by increases in new orders and production [4][11] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April of the previous year [4][11] - A temporary trade agreement framework has been reached between the U.S. and India, with India committing to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. products over five years [4][12] Group 4 - The energy sector is facing geopolitical support for oil prices, with OPEC+ confirming plans to maintain stable oil production in March [5][12] - The chemical sector, including PTA and PVC, is showing resilience against market downturns due to anti-competitive measures and stock market interactions [5][12] - Agricultural products are under scrutiny due to weather forecasts and short-term swine disease situations [5][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of global inflation remains unchanged, and the core driver overseas is Trump's policies. His nomination of Kevin Warsh aims to cut interest rates, lower credit - card rates, and boost the real - estate market. Although there was a significant short - term decline in assets such as silver, gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks, the long - term inflation narrative persists [1][2]. - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, including the central bank's interest - rate cuts and the finance ministry's policy releases. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different investment outlooks, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh advocates a "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy. After the news, silver fell over 30%, and gold dropped 11%, hitting the biggest single - day decline since March 1980. Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks were all under pressure in the short term. Trump hopes to stimulate the economy to grow at a 15% rate, indicating a pursuit of significant rate cuts and higher inflation tolerance [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption - boosting and anti - "involution" measures. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the finance ministry released five important policy documents on January 20. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy and conduct regular treasury bond transactions. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, with the fastest growth rate since 2022. The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, much higher than the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed that India would stop importing Russian oil. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister will discuss food tax cuts [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, Indonesia cut the annual production quota of the world's largest nickel mine to 1.2 billion tons, a 71% drop from 2025, causing the LME nickel price to rise over 2.6%. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC + will keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel. In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline. Agricultural products need attention on weather and short - term pig diseases, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [3]. News - US employment growth in January exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased. The actual new employment from March 2025 was about 900,000 less than initially reported. November and December non - farm employment numbers were revised down [4]. - After the base - period rotation of China's CPI and PPI, the average impact on the year - on - year index was about 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2][4]. - Indonesia will significantly reduce the production quota of PT Weda Bay Nickel to 1.2 billion tons this year, down from 4.2 billion tons in 2025. Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex geopolitical maneuvers involving the U.S., Venezuela, and Iran, aiming to establish a new "oil empire" through strategic energy cooperation and manipulation of oil resources [1]. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Industry - Venezuela is the country with the largest oil reserves globally, yet its oil industry is in a dire state, with production levels significantly below historical peaks [6]. - The country’s oil extraction equipment is outdated, with many pipelines over 50 years old, leading to a daily oil production of less than 900,000 barrels, far below the peak of 3.7 million barrels [6]. - The heavy, high-sulfur oil produced in Venezuela is difficult and costly to extract, likened to "asphalt" or "honey" in terms of viscosity, which complicates the extraction process [9]. Group 2: U.S. Strategic Interests - The U.S. has effectively controlled Venezuela's oil resources and is preparing for large-scale oil extraction, using political maneuvers to clear obstacles [5]. - The U.S. aims to mix Iranian light crude oil with Venezuelan heavy crude to improve flow and reduce extraction costs, potentially cutting the recovery investment from $145 billion to $70 billion [12]. - The U.S. possesses advanced oil extraction technology and seeks to establish a low-cost, high-yield oil empire by integrating the oil industries of Venezuela and Iran [14]. Group 3: Iran's Position - Iran's oil is characterized as light and low-sulfur, making it easier to extract compared to Venezuela's heavy oil [8]. - The U.S. is imposing strict conditions on Iran, aiming to limit its military capabilities and ensure that Iran becomes dependent on U.S. channels for oil sales, effectively turning it into a compliant state [16][18]. - Iran faces significant economic pressure, leading to a critical decision point: whether to yield to U.S. demands for short-term relief or to resist and endure ongoing sanctions [22]. Group 4: Global Oil Prices and Economic Implications - The U.S. strategy involves maintaining high oil prices to facilitate future investments in Venezuelan oil extraction, making the initial costs appear profitable [26]. - If Iran compromises and supplies light oil to Venezuela, extraction costs will decrease, allowing the U.S. to lower oil prices, which could help alleviate domestic inflation [28]. - The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in 2026 are framed as a struggle for oil dominance, with significant implications for global inflation and economic stability [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of global inflation remains unchanged. The recent sharp decline in the market does not alter this long - term narrative. The core overseas driver is Trump's policies, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh aims to cut interest rates, lower credit card rates, and boost the real estate market. In China, domestic policies are also pushing up inflation [2][3]. - In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against market volatility, especially the potential reversal of extreme emotions. However, from a long - term perspective, there are still investment opportunities in different commodity sectors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Areas Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Warsh's well - known policy combination is "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction". After the nomination, the market priced in "a review of the Fed's independence", causing silver to fall by more than 30%, gold to drop by 11% (the largest single - day decline since March 1980), and Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks to face pressure in the short term. Trump hopes that his nominee can stimulate the economy to grow at a rate of 15%, indicating a pursuit of significant interest rate cuts and a higher tolerance for inflation [2]. Inflation and Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 emphasized boosting consumption, rectifying "involution - style" competition, and promoting economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents to support multiple loan areas. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and carry out regular treasury bond transactions [3]. Global Economic and Geopolitical News - US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, with the fastest growth rate since 2022. The US ADP employment increase in January was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with the US imposing an 18% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods, and India promising to purchase $500 billion of US products over five years. Trump confirmed that India will stop importing Russian oil. In Japan, the ruling coalition won a majority in the House of Representatives election, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio plans to discuss food tax cuts [3]. Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous metals sector, long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, with high certainty. Precious metals have regained allocation value after the recent adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on consignment" Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. In the chemical sector, PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline. The agricultural products sector needs to pay attention to weather and short - term pig disease conditions, and the black metals sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair potential [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [5]. Important News - The central bank's 2025 Q4 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report shows that the central bank suspended buying treasury bonds in the open market in January 2025 and resumed purchases in October, with net purchases of 20 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan in October, November, and December respectively. In the future, it will carry out regular treasury bond transactions. Trump's nominee for the Fed Chairman is expected to stimulate 15% economic growth. Japan will hold a special parliamentary session on February 18 for the prime minister nomination election. The UK Prime Minister's ruling crisis has temporarily eased. Iran's air force is on the highest - level combat readiness, and the US has advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian waters [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent sharp decline in the market does not change the global inflation narrative, with the core driver of overseas markets being Trump's policies [1] - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, and globally, geopolitical tensions continue to drive the competition for mineral and energy resources [2] - In the short - term, be vigilant about market volatility, while in the long - term, inflation trends remain unchanged unless there is an economic recession or strong interest - rate hike expectations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh's policy of "rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" led to a significant decline in silver and gold prices, and put pressure on Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks. On February 10, Warsh may make his first public speech as a Fed candidate [1] - Hasset believes that employment data may slow down, but it does not hinder strong economic growth [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and price stability. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 [2] - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, with the ADP employment increase of 22,000 people, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil [2] - The ruling coalition in Japan won a majority in the House of Representatives election. Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced plans to discuss food tax cuts and promote private - public investment [2][4] - Due to the political turmoil of UK Prime Minister Starmer, the UK's stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets all declined [2][4] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, and precious metals have regained allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC+ will keep oil production stable in March. The US plans to "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [2] - In the chemical sector, products like methanol and PTA are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases need attention, and for the black metal sector, domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair potential are key points [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Hasset expects a slight decline in employment data, consistent with high GDP growth [4] - Kaoi Sanae will promote food tax - cut discussions in Japan, not issue deficit bonds, and seek to raise funds through non - tax revenues and subsidy reviews. She hopes to visit the US next month [4] - The ruling coalition in Japan won a majority in the House of Representatives election [4] - Two key officials of UK Prime Minister Starmer resigned [4] - Zelensky said the US hopes to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict by summer, and a new round of tripartite talks may be held this week [2][4]