我先说个细节。 就在中美新一轮磋商开始前，特朗普突然对俄罗斯下了最后通牒。最初，美国给出的时间是50天。大家去算一算，如果从6月底算起，50天正好到9月初。那 个时间点有多敏感？两个关键词： 你有没有想过，为什么是90天？不是60天，不是半年，偏偏就是90天？ 我最近也在琢磨这个问题。这90天，看似只是延迟了一下中美之间那根紧绷的弦，实则背后藏了不少算计。而且这次的时间点卡得太巧，几乎每个节点都踩 在敏感位置上。 说白了，这不是简单的给你喘口气，而是我让你喘几天，就得看我接下来手上的牌。 但就在会谈开始前，美国突然把这个50天大幅压缩成了10到12天。这么一改，最后期限瞬间跳到了8月中旬。而这个节点恰好对上了中美磋商设定的暂停期 截止时间——8月12日。 这巧合，真不是凑巧。 我查了下，美方此前已经放话，如果俄罗斯不在期限内停火，就会启动100%次级关税制裁。这什么意思？不是只对俄罗斯，而是对所有还在买俄罗斯能源 的国家征收100%的次级关税。 你细想，美国如果真这么干，最直接受影响的并不是欧洲，而是中国。 • 北京九三阅兵 • 美联储9月议息会议 一个是政治大场面，一个是经济风向标。 这就回到了最开始的问题 ...

IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3.1%，分别比2025年4月WEO的预测调高0.2 个和0.1个百分点。IMF称，这反映出由于加征关税的预期，全球经济活动提前的水平强于此前预 期。 此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年降至3.6%，与4月预测相似，但各 经济体间的通胀水平仍将存在明显分化，比如IMF预测美国的通胀率将保持在目标水平之上，其他大 型经济体的通胀率则将更低。 IMF建议，全球政策需要通过缓和紧张局势、维护价格和金融稳定、恢复财政缓冲和实施急需的结构 性改革，从而带来信心、可预测性和可持续性。 2025.07. 30 本文字数：2561，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 在7月29日发布的最新《世界经济展望》（WEO）报告中，国际货币基金组织（IMF）将全球经济情 况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧性"。 | Year over Year Q4 over Q4 2/ Difference from April | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Impact of US Tariff Policy - The US tariff policy is used as a tool for trade negotiations and political pressure, significantly affecting global economic order, inflation trends, investment markets, and US-China trade relations [1][2] - Short-term effects of the tariff policy include increased import costs leading to temporary inflation pressure, with 16.7% of US consumer spending reliant on imports [2][3] - Long-term implications involve supply chain restructuring, which may result in efficiency losses and sustained inflationary pressures due to increased production and transportation costs [2][3] Group 2: Investment Market Reactions - Increased policy uncertainty from frequent tariff adjustments suppresses investment confidence, leading to more cautious long-term investment decisions [3][4] - Higher tariff rates raise production costs for companies and negatively impact consumer confidence, potentially leading to layoffs and production line relocations [3][4] Group 3: Global Trade Rule Restructuring - The World Trade Organization (WTO) faces challenges in addressing trade disputes effectively, prompting countries to shift towards regional trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) [4][5] - RCEP is expected to expand export markets, reduce trade costs, and promote deeper integration of supply chains, enhancing competitiveness for traditional labor-intensive industries [5][6] Group 4: Challenges for Chinese Export Enterprises - US tariffs have negatively impacted Chinese exports, with imports from China to the US projected to decline from $503.65 billion in 2017 to $429.43 billion in 2024, a drop of 14.7% [12][13] - Chinese enterprises are adopting strategies such as product upgrades, price competition, transshipment trade, and overseas production capacity to mitigate the impact of tariffs [12][13][14] Group 5: Economic Resilience Strategies - To enhance economic resilience, China is focusing on strengthening domestic demand, improving income distribution, and promoting consumption through targeted subsidies [14][15] - The emphasis is on reinforcing the resilience of the entire industrial chain and fostering innovation to create competitive advantages [14][15]

Group 1 - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that frequent adjustments in U.S. trade policies will gradually reveal negative impacts on the global economy by Q2 2025, affecting U.S. consumer demand and investment activities in other economies [1] - Global economic growth momentum weakened in Q2 2025 due to changes in the trade environment, with a stable supply side and continued weak demand side [1] - Major economies are experiencing sluggish consumer growth, with U.S. retail sales declining by 0.9% month-on-month in May, and consumer confidence indices in the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan at two-year lows [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the global economy will face more challenges in Q3 due to tariff impacts, with a potential continuation of slowing demand expansion [1] - High inflation continues to erode real income in Japan, leading to weak domestic demand growth [1] - Emerging economies may increase their expansion into domestic and non-U.S. markets, and the restructuring of global supply chains could boost some economies' real investments, but overall global demand expansion remains uncertain [1] Group 3 - The report states that tariff increases and trade policy uncertainties will raise price levels in Q3, while changes in the Middle East may exacerbate inflationary pressures through impacts on international energy prices and global shipping [2] - Weak consumer market growth expectations may alleviate price pressures from the demand side, leading to differentiated inflation trends across different economies [2] - As U.S. inventories of previously "imported goods" are depleted, tariff burdens will gradually be passed on to U.S. consumer prices and production costs, while weak consumer demand will suppress price increases [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising costs of new copper mines globally due to increasing inflation, which is impacting copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Global inflation is intensifying, leading to higher costs for establishing new copper mines [1] - The article raises questions about how copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations will evolve in response to these rising costs [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has alleviated tensions in the Middle East and led to a significant drop in oil prices, benefiting global inflation control efforts [2] - Following the ceasefire, oil prices fell nearly 3%, after a previous drop of nearly 9%, bringing U.S. crude futures close to their lowest point before the Israeli attacks on Iran [2] - The U.S. dollar weakened due to the easing geopolitical tensions, with notable declines against the Japanese yen and British pound, as investors shifted their focus to the upcoming congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2] Group 2 - In the context of uncertain interest rate outlooks, the U.S. dollar index fell from 99.40 to below 98, indicating a potential downward trend if it breaches the 97.60 level [3] - The Federal Reserve has not taken action on interest rates this year, influenced by inflation from Trump's tariff policies, but there are emerging divisions within the Fed regarding potential rate cuts, with some officials leaning towards a reduction in July [2] - Powell is expected to face questions regarding the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and its future borrowing cost outlook, especially after Trump's call for a significant rate cut [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum (New Champions Annual Meeting) is being held in Tianjin, highlighting global economic uncertainties and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on market confidence and inflation [2] Economic Performance - China's economy is currently performing steadily, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in Q2, indicating a generally positive economic outlook for the first half of the year [2] - Strong performance in exports and industrial production in recent quarters reflects the resilience of the economy, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] Fiscal Policy Discussion - There is a need to differentiate between short-term and long-term fiscal policy objectives, with long-term fiscal health being crucial to avoid sustainability issues [3] - In response to external uncertainties that may slow economic growth, it is recommended to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy to create space for further economic stabilization [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has led to a more unpredictable security and political landscape in the region [1] - International crude oil prices have surged approximately 10% within a week after the Israeli attack on Iran, with a total increase of over 20% for June, indicating heightened geopolitical risks affecting global commodity and financial markets [3] - Iran has threatened to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, which could significantly impact global economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil supplies [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the U.S. military action may not only exacerbate tensions with Iran but also lead to further increases in international oil prices, potentially raising global inflation levels and affecting monetary policies worldwide [3] - The international community is calling for restraint to prevent further escalation of conflict, with the UN Secretary-General emphasizing that diplomatic solutions are the only viable path to resolve the current crisis [4] - The long-standing differences between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with the profound impacts of recent events, suggest that achieving a genuine peace solution may take considerable time [4]

在巨大波动中，多空均有人爆仓。据Coinglass统计，过去24小时内，全球超过12万人爆仓，爆仓总 金额超过4.5亿美元。 整体上看，多单最为惨烈，爆单金额超过4亿美元。 其中，最大单笔爆仓单出 现在比特币，爆仓金额达800万美元。 来源：e公司 过去24小时内，数字货币市场巨震，多空双方都有大量投资者爆仓。 比特币单价从104000美元附近突然直拉超2000美元，之后又快速下跌近4000美元，之后缓慢抬升， 最新报价在103800美元附近。 以太坊直接跳水，短线跌超200美元，最新报2440美元/枚，日内跌幅超过4%。 | 交易对 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 念 BTC/USDT 永续 | 103870.5 | -1.92% | 165.93亿 | | > ETH/USDT 永绞 | 2442.11 | -4.23% | 168.65 Z | | 念 SOL/USDT 永绞 | 141.89 | -4.03% | 37.76亿 | | 念 XRP/USDT 永续 | 2.1364 | -1.56% | 10.45 Z | | > DOGE/ ...

Market Overview - The digital currency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin's price fluctuating dramatically, dropping to around $104,000 before rebounding over $2,000 and then falling nearly $4,000 again, settling at approximately $103,500 [1] - Ethereum also saw a sharp decline, dropping over $200 to a price of $2,440, representing a daily decrease of more than 4.5% [2] - Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin, SOL, and SUI also faced declines exceeding 4% [3] Liquidation Statistics - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 investors were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amounts exceeding $460 million [3] - Long positions were particularly affected, with liquidation amounts surpassing $500 million, and the largest single liquidation occurred in Bitcoin, amounting to approximately $8 million [3] Market Influences - The recent downturn in the digital currency market is attributed to several factors, including unclear global inflation prospects, high geopolitical uncertainties causing liquidity panic, an escalation in SEC policy reviews, and profit-taking by investors who previously went long [5] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, precious metals like gold and silver also saw declines, with gold prices dropping approximately $80 from a peak of $3,450 per ounce [5] Economic Commentary - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that a reduction to 1-2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually [10][11] - Trump criticized Powell's handling of inflation and hinted at possibly reconsidering his previous stance on Powell's job security [10][11]