2026年01月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪消退，盘面宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价抬升，盘面宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 12 日 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 814. 5 | 1.5 | 0. 18% | | | I 2605 ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,915 | 200 | 135 | -215 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） Si2605持仓量（手） | 366,201 | -16,214 | 14,776 | 168,310 | | | | | 216,220 | -4,845 | 2,444 | 4,421 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） PS2605成交量（手） | 57,890 | 1,390 | -1,335 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,713 83,335 | -26,715 -12,296 | -110,600 -48,268 | - - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -35 | 0 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 1, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Focus: Analysis of the futures market for black series commodities, including iron ore, steel products, ferroalloys, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to trade in a low range [2][6] - Ferrosilicon is subject to market sentiment and is expected to trade in a low range; ferromanganese silicon has firm ore prices and is also expected to trade in a low range [2][10] - Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a wide range [2][16] - Logs are expected to trade weakly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan or 0.69%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 23,368 lots. Spot prices for most imported ores declined, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis for some contracts increased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar futures (RB2601) closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Hot-rolled coil futures (HC2601) closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.27%, also with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices showed mixed changes, and some basis and spreads changed [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of November 27, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed various trends for different products [6] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils, indicating a neutral outlook Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon remained stable, while some prices for manganese ore increased. Various price spreads changed, including basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in production, inventory, and procurement prices in the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon markets in November [12][15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices for coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, and some basis and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices for different log contracts showed various trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. Spot-futures spreads also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans (DCE bean - 1) is "shock" [2] - The investment rating for soybean meal is "shock, avoid risks during the long holiday" [3] Core Viewpoints - On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans and insufficient demand from China. The warm and dry weather in the US Corn Belt accelerated the autumn grain harvest, and the weather is expected to remain similar this week. Analysts predict that the US soybean inventory as of September 1 will be 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decrease from the previous year, and lower than the USDA's September forecast. As of September 28, the US soybean harvest was 19% complete. Brazil, the world's largest oilseed exporter, has started soybean planting, with 3.2% of the sowing completed as of last Thursday, higher than 2% in the same period last year [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - DCE bean - 1 2511: The daytime closing price was 3938 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the night - time closing price was 3926 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.13%) [2] - DCE soybean meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 2933 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.54%); the night - time closing price was 2931 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (-0.20%) [2] - CBOT soybean 11: The price was 1009.25 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.47%) [2] - CBOT soybean meal 12: The price was 275 dollars/short ton, up 0.1 dollars (+0.04%) [2] Spot Data - Shandong: The price of 43% soybean meal was 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton, flat. The spot basis was M2601 + 0/+30, with different basis levels for different months [2] - East China: The price in Taizhou Huifu was 2920 yuan/ton, flat. Different trading companies had different basis levels for different months, and some basis levels increased compared to the previous day [2] - South China: The price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, flat. With different basis levels for different months [2] Main Industry Data - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.04 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 8.05 million tons/day two trading days ago [2] - Inventory: The inventory data was not available, and the inventory two trading days ago was 117.04 million tons/week [2] Macro and Industry News - On September 29, CBOT soybean futures declined due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans and insufficient demand from China. The US autumn grain harvest accelerated, and the weather is expected to remain warm and dry. Analysts predict a year - on - year decrease in US soybean inventory as of September 1. The US soybean harvest progress was in line with market expectations, and Brazil has started soybean planting with a higher sowing progress than last year [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans (DCE bean - 1) is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime on the report day [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with a trend strength of 0 [1][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased; trading volume and open interest had different changes, with BU2509's trading volume and open interest decreasing, and BU2510's trading volume and open interest increasing; the total market asphalt warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 09), 09 - 10 inter - period spread, Shandong - South China spread, and East China - South China spread had different changes [2] - **Spot Market Data**: Shandong and Yangtze River Delta wholesale prices had different changes; refinery operating rates decreased by 0.07%, and refinery inventory rates decreased by 0.20% [2] Market Information - **Shipment Volume**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Shandong's shipment volume decreased, while East China's increased [17] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% due to factors such as refinery production changes [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities in the black series are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore will experience range - bound oscillations due to fluctuating expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal will be affected by macro - sentiment or sector - wide sentiment resonance; thermal coal's demand remains to be released; and logs will undergo basis repair [2][4][6][10][14][18][22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 695.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values decreased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,986 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,102 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase. Spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and some basis and spread values also changed slightly [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel increased by 3.2% month - on - month, pig iron by 2.6% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 6.4% month - on - month. From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes varied. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions, and a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia newly ignited a furnace, while a silicon - iron furnace in Qinghai was shut down [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2509 was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for coke J2509, it was 1375 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton with a 0.70% increase. Some spot prices remained unchanged, and some basis and spread values decreased [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index changes. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of DCE, the long positions of coking coal JM2509 decreased, and the short positions increased; for coke J2509, both long and short positions increased [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Inner - Market Situation**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [19]. - **Fundamentals**: There were price quotes for imported thermal coal in southern ports and domestic thermal coal in production areas. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2507 contract did not change [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions had different degrees of changes, and some basis and spread values changed significantly [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the industrial silicon market is experiencing weak demand, with the futures market showing a weak and volatile trend, while the polysilicon market is also weak due to the fermentation of news. The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Si2506 and PS2506 decreased compared to previous periods. Si2506's closing price dropped by 980 yuan/ton compared to a month ago, and PS2506's by 640 yuan/ton compared to a week ago. Trading volumes and open interest also showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premiums or discounts showed different trends compared to different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type recycled feedstock) increased by 610 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon (such as East - China oxygen - passing Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210) and polysilicon (N - type recycled feedstock) decreased to varying degrees. The prices of related products in the photovoltaic industry chain also generally declined, like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [2]. - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories (both in Xinjiang and Yunnan) and polysilicon enterprises were mostly negative, and the profit margins of DMC and recycled aluminum enterprises also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social, enterprise, and industry inventories decreased to varying degrees, while polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News As of the end of March, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.43 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. The national power generation equipment's average utilization hours decreased, power source project investment declined, and grid project investment increased [2][4].