Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 沥青：震荡偏弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,552 | -0.08% | 3,538 | -0.39% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,528 | -0.03% | 3,508 | -0.57% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 35,708 | (13,497) | 60,579 | (7,259) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 155,921 | 21,495 | 211,556 | 712 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 76650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].

2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com （1） 财联社 6 月 16 日电，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国房地产开发投资 36234 亿元，同 比下降 10.7%。(来自财联社 APP) 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the industrial silicon market is experiencing weak demand, with the futures market showing a weak and volatile trend, while the polysilicon market is also weak due to the fermentation of news. The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Si2506 and PS2506 decreased compared to previous periods. Si2506's closing price dropped by 980 yuan/ton compared to a month ago, and PS2506's by 640 yuan/ton compared to a week ago. Trading volumes and open interest also showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premiums or discounts showed different trends compared to different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type recycled feedstock) increased by 610 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon (such as East - China oxygen - passing Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210) and polysilicon (N - type recycled feedstock) decreased to varying degrees. The prices of related products in the photovoltaic industry chain also generally declined, like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [2]. - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories (both in Xinjiang and Yunnan) and polysilicon enterprises were mostly negative, and the profit margins of DMC and recycled aluminum enterprises also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social, enterprise, and industry inventories decreased to varying degrees, while polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News As of the end of March, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.43 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. The national power generation equipment's average utilization hours decreased, power source project investment declined, and grid project investment increased [2][4].