宏观对冲基金和商品交易顾问（CTA）对冲基金似乎也已平仓美元空头。他们的收益对美元表现的敏感度曾跌至三年多来的最低 （负值），如今已回到中性水平。 当然，投机者和对冲基金或许会开始做多美元——但前提是他们无视美国的财政状况。美国年度赤字已达约2万亿美元，若经济陷 入衰退，占GDP 6%-7%的赤字很容易翻倍至两位数。 彭博社宏观策略师西蒙·怀特（Simon White）认为，美元的主要趋势是长期走弱，因投机性空头头寸已平仓，而随着经济放缓，美 国财政前景将进一步恶化。 美元指数正经历又一次反弹失败。近几周，它第二次尝试从7月初的低点反弹，却再度受阻。就目前而言，这种模式可能持续—— 因为美元的基本面前景将使其持续承压。 做空美元的交易曾一度非常拥挤，以至于出现反弹只是时间问题而非"是否会出现"。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的持 仓数据，投机者在美元期货中的空头头寸已相当极端。 尽管整体而言美元持仓仍处于净空头状态，但美元兑欧元、英镑等发达市场货币的空头头寸已平仓，目前持仓重回净多头。投机 者对美元兑新兴市场货币的持仓仍维持净空头状态（且空头规模还在扩大），但对于美元指数而言，只有发达市场货币（主要是 ...

Group 1 - The macro hedge fund Rokos Capital Management achieved a return of 2.58% in June [1] - The cumulative return for Rokos Capital Management has reached 12.26% as of now for the year 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent research conducted by Kaifeng Investment on a listed company, Jialian Technology, focusing on its operational status and future plans for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - Jialian Technology is expanding its production lines in 2024, with subsidiaries in the early stages of production, leading to lower capacity utilization and increased costs [1] - The issuance of convertible bonds has resulted in higher financial expenses for the company [1] - Uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies exist, but overseas sales are gradually recovering, with the company leveraging its overseas production bases for flexible capacity allocation [1] - The completion of the first phase of the factory in Thailand has enabled production and supply capabilities, with plans to release capacity in stages based on business needs [1] - The company has received an average tax rate for countervailing duties, allowing it to set up factories in Thailand to circumvent tariff barriers and promote industrial upgrades [1] - Market demand is expected to increase with rising temperatures, and the company aims to enhance customer loyalty and core competitiveness through high-quality products and services [1] - Product innovation is being utilized to improve gross margins, while strict cost control and refined management are enhancing profitability [1] Group 2 - Kaifeng Investment is a macro-hedge fund management company that invests in global commodities, bonds, equity assets, and their derivatives [2] - The company is a member of the China Fund Industry Association and the China Futures Association, with qualifications approved by the China Securities Investment Fund Association [2] - Kaifeng Investment has received multiple awards for its performance and scale in managing various funds, ranking among the top in its category in China [2] - The investment philosophy of Kaifeng Investment emphasizes the importance of details in uncovering industrial insights and discovering value [2] - The company has a high-level research team of over 50 members focused on macro and industrial fundamental research, covering major trading varieties in domestic and international futures markets [2] - In 2016, Kaifeng Investment aimed to strengthen communication and cooperation with real enterprises, providing comprehensive solutions including industrial consulting and hedging services [2]