新华社记者邓茜 2025年，黄金经历了历史性牛市，国际金价年内涨幅一度超过约70%。这一暴涨既有此前数年价格上行 的蓄势而发，也有当前世界经济多重困境的催化。在国际秩序深度重构背景下，全球发展信心的显著变 化、世界经济前景的潜在风险以及历史周期的微妙镜像，都映照在黄金"狂飙"中。 国际金价迎来历史性牛市 2025年黄金价格飙升，出现自1979年石油危机以来最大涨幅，期货黄金和现货黄金在年末均一度逼近每 盎司4600美元，迎来数十年来最大牛市。 新华社北京12月31日电题：金价飙涨中的世界经济趋势观察 为了对冲美元信用风险，各国政府和全球主要央行近年来加快推动储备多元化，大规模增持黄金，成为 推升金价的重要力量。根据欧洲中央银行2025年6月发布的报告，2024年，按照市场价格计算，黄金在 全球央行储备中的份额升至20%，超过欧元的16%，成为继美元之后的全球第二大储备资产；各国央行 黄金净购买量也连续第三年突破1000吨，创历史纪录。 投资保值功能成为金价上涨助力。美联储从2024年9月开启本轮降息周期，至今六次降息，令美元资产 吸引力下降，也推动以美元计价的黄金上涨。2025年以来美元表现疲软，美元指数年内 ...

据新华社电 黄金价格今年屡创新高，助长了韩国人购买黄金的热情。 据报道，岁末年初礼尚往来对黄金的需求，叠加担心错过上涨行情的焦虑情绪，致使市场预测金价将持 续上涨一段时间。除"黄金银行"外，近期黄金交易所交易基金（ETF)同样受韩国人追捧。 韩国《朝鲜日报》25日报道，国民银行、新韩银行和友利银行的"黄金银行"账户总余额已接近1.91万亿 韩元（约合92.44亿元人民币）。这一数字比9月底金价开始飙升时增加近5000亿韩元（24.2亿元人民 币）。 ...

"不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不只是供 需基本面，还受到货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多重因素影响。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研 究员刘英表示，投资需求增加，特别是各国央行持续购金在短期内将强化黄金供需，或将推动金价上 行。 国际金价连日来持续走高。金饰价格也一路上扬，有品牌足金饰品报价突破每克1400元，足金999回收 价每克近1000元。 当前，黄金在全球资产配置中的多元化价值与风险对冲功能，已被全球投资者和政策制定者重新认知并 重视。 业内人士认为，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄金价格上涨的主要原因。各国 央行持续购买黄金以及黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也推高了黄金价格。 世界黄金协会日前发布的报告指出，推动2025年这一轮黄金强势上涨的重要因素，包括地缘政治与经济 不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。 金价上涨，引发市场对短期风险的关注。上海黄金交易所23日发布《关于继续加强近期市场风险控制工 作的通知》指出，近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多，贵金属价格波动剧烈。请会员提高风险防范意识， 继续做好风险应急预案，维 ...

国际清算银行（BIS）在最新报告中警告称，散户投资者的"追涨行为"正将黄金从避险资产推向投机性资产，黄金与 股市已同时进入"爆炸性区域"——这是至少50年来的首次。报告援引1980年黄金泡沫破裂的案例指出，在经历爆炸性 阶段后，泡沫通常会伴随急剧而迅速的调整。 传统金融逻辑中，黄金与股市通常呈现负相关：经济繁荣时，风险偏好上升推动资金涌入股市，黄金因无利息收益而 被冷落。而经济衰退时，避险需求激增支撑金价，股市则随盈利预期下滑而承压。 但2025年，全球混乱的金融市场彻底打破了这一规律，在AI科技股的带动下，欧美主要股指年内涨幅均达两位数，标 普500指数屡创新高，与此同时，黄金价格年内涨幅已接近60%，白银更是上涨近100%，均即将创下1979年以来的最 大年度涨幅！同时，美元、黄金、美股之间的关联关系也发生异常，商品和美元的锚定关系减弱，而美元也不再紧盯 商品市场的流动性变化！ 在此背景下，BIS的发布了2024年度收官报告，在报告中，其重点警告了上述现象，并称这是过去50年间两类资产首 次共同呈现"暴涨式同步走势"，这种反常同步本身就蕴含着巨大的风险！ BIS的首席经济顾问兼货币与经济部门主管申铉松表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, surpassing $4000 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including global trade uncertainties, concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year due to global trade uncertainties and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The ongoing U.S. government funding impasse has heightened market volatility, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to further support gold prices, with a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the near term [3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have laid the groundwork for the current gold price surge, with retail investors and ETF inflows driving the next phase of price increases [3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, reflecting a strategic move to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical tensions [3][4] - China's actions have not only boosted physical demand for gold but also sent positive signals to the market, reinforcing the upward momentum in gold prices [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The combination of political uncertainty, economic slowdown risks, and ongoing global market turmoil is expected to continue attracting funds into gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments related to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the U.S. government funding situation, as well as geopolitical events in the Middle East [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000, is driven by multiple factors including economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased by 52% year-to-date, with a significant rise of 27% in 2024 alone, marking a historic milestone for the asset [2][3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to its price increase [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated monetary easing is favorable for gold, as it does not yield interest, prompting increased investment in gold ETFs, which saw the highest inflow in over three years in September [2][3][4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are currently focused on the trend rather than attempting to predict price peaks, with a strategy of buying on dips being recommended [6][9] - The sentiment in the market remains bullish, with expectations that gold could reach the next significant milestone of $5,000 [2][3] - The psychological aspect of trading is highlighted, where many investors feel conflicted about entering positions due to the rapid price increases [8][9] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold remains in a strong upward trend, with key support levels identified around $3,990 to $3,985 [4][6] - The absence of significant resistance levels above $4,000 indicates that the bullish momentum may continue for an extended period [9] - The market is advised to maintain a cautious approach, with strict stop-loss measures in place to manage potential volatility [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by expectations of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. which has increased safe-haven demand [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Gold spot prices rose to a peak of $4,014.82 per ounce during Asian trading, marking a significant milestone [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 50% [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Multiple factors are driving the rise in gold prices, including interest rate cut expectations, persistent political and economic uncertainty, robust central bank purchases, inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a weakening U.S. dollar [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to safe-haven flows into gold, with no immediate resolution in sight [1] Group 3: Investment Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, suggests that even with gold prices exceeding $4,000 per ounce, investors should allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to gold [1]

Group 1 - The price of gold has broken historical records, briefly surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time, marking a nearly 50% increase since 2025, making it one of the most popular trades globally [1] - This surge in gold prices is described as an extreme movement, reminiscent of the dramatic price increases seen in the late 1970s during severe inflation, where prices rose over 200% in a year [1] - The current market sentiment is driven more by "fear" than "greed," indicating a shift in investor psychology towards gold as a safe haven asset [1] Group 2 - Ken Griffin's comments highlight a deeper anxiety regarding the erosion of confidence in U.S. institutions and the dollar as the world's reserve currency [2] - The rise in gold prices is largely attributed to central bank purchases, suggesting a shift away from accumulating dollars [2] - Factors contributing to this trend include U.S. government instability, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the popularity of gold ETFs, which have increased demand for precious metals and Bitcoin [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce, while silver prices have also risen for the third consecutive trading day, nearing $44 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1][2] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of a shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with investors anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment [2] - The significant increase in gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings indicates enhanced institutional allocation interest, with last Friday's single-day increase marking the highest in over three years [2] Group 2 - The silver market is performing strongly, with London spot silver prices hovering around $44 per ounce, the highest level since August 2011, and a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract price has surpassed 10,000 yuan per kilogram, reaching a nearly 13-year high, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [3] - Silver prices are more elastic compared to gold, supported by active bullish options trading amid expectations of interest rate cuts, with the trading volume of the iShares Silver Trust options reaching a peak since April 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raises its gold price forecast, citing expectations of Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks as factors that indicate the gold bull market is far from over [1] Price Forecast - UBS has increased its gold price target for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and raised its mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3,900 per ounce [1] - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, reaching a historical high of $3,673.95 per ounce recently, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] Investment Demand - UBS's analysis indicates a rapid increase in investment demand for gold, predicting that total holdings in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will exceed 3,900 tons by the end of 2025, nearing the historical record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020 [2] Macro Environment - The core logic behind UBS's bullish outlook on gold is based on macroeconomic conditions, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle, which would weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold priced in dollars [3] - Geopolitical risks and the policy divergence between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are key factors boosting gold's safe-haven value [3] - The report highlights President Trump's preference for low interest rates as a supportive factor for gold prices, as gold traditionally performs well in low-rate environments [3] Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold is expected to remain strong, with UBS forecasting purchases to be between 900 to 950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record of over 1,000 tons, indicating continued confidence in gold as a reserve asset [3]