除了美国因素，中国央行的行动也为黄金涨势注入了强劲动力。中国人民银行数据显示，9月份该行连 续第11个月增加黄金储备。这一持续增持行为并非偶然，而是反映出中国在全球地缘政治紧张和贸易不 确定性下的战略布局。作为全球最大黄金生产国和消费国，中国通过增持黄金来多元化储备，减少对美 元的依赖。这不仅提振了黄金的实物需求，还向市场传递出积极信号。结合美联储的宽松政策和美元疲 软，中国央行的买盘成为金价上涨的另一重要支柱。此外，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也 持续强劲，进一步放大这一效应。 综上所述，黄金价格突破4000美元关口是多重利好因素叠加的结果，从美联储降息预期到政府停摆，再 到中国央行增持和全球市场动荡，都为其提供了强大动能。展望后市，随着政治不确定性和经济放缓风 险持续存在，黄金的避险魅力将继续吸引资金流入。投资者应密切关注美联储会议纪要和政府停摆进 展，但需警惕短期回调风险。此外，需要溜腿新西兰联储利率决议和美联储官员的讲话。另外，还需要 关注中东地缘局势相关消息。巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）与以色列在埃及沙姆沙伊赫市举行的 新一轮加沙地带停火谈判10月7日继续。哈马斯方面提出两大要求，一是 ...

换资前言： 牛市不言顶！最近粉丝关注最多的问题就是，老师金价会涨到哪里？目前已经突破4000关口，盲目猜顶 不可取，周线级别7连阳，试问你错过多少次上车机会？我还是那句话：强势不言顶不是口号，是扎扎 实实的趋势。现在一堆人纠结"价格太高""该回调了"不妨看看隔壁虚拟币，我反复说过：别盯着数字 看，要看格局！牛市的本质是"蓄谋已久的宣泄"，不杀透不会停；就算回头，也不是某一根K线的事， 是多重因素慢慢发酵后，市场才会软下来。 策略一：黄金早盘4025-4030附近分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损8个点，目标4000-3990附近， 破位看3985一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实施布局建议在钉钉实盘学员内部公布） 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(10月8日)亚市盘中，黄金价格一举突破4000美元创下历史新高，主要受投资者在不断加剧的经济 和地缘政治不确定性中寻求避险，以及对美联储进一步降息的预期推动。截至发稿，现货金上涨 0.62%，至4,014.53美元。与此同时，12月交割的美国黄金期货上涨0.5%，至4,030美元。对于两年前还 低于2,000美元的黄金来说，这是一个里程碑 ...

格隆汇10月8日｜金价继续破顶，美联储本月减息0.25%的预期升温，加上美国政府持续停摆引发避险 需求，刺激黄金现货价格今早在亚洲时段首次升穿每盎斯4000美元大关，最高至4014.82美元/盎司，再 创历史新高。 年初至今，金价已攀升逾50%。多种因素推动黄金升势，包括减息预期、政治和经济的 持续不确定性、央行的稳健买盘、黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)流入以及美元疲软。 有金属策略师认为， 目前的避险资金流动部分源于华府停摆，而且没有迹象表明这会在短期内得到解决，因此黄金仍有相当 不错的买盘。对冲基金桥水(Bridgewater)创办人、"鳄王"达里奥(Ray Dalio)早前表示，即使金价飙升至 每盎斯4000美元以上创历史新高，投资者也应该将至多15%的投资组合配置在黄金上。 ...

纽约期金本周打破了历史纪录，历史上首次短暂突破每盎司4000美元的大关。 这一里程碑标志着黄金 在2025年已累计飙升近50%，使这种金融领域历史最悠久的"避险资产"一跃成为全球最热门、最拥挤的 交易之一。 对于一种通常只实现个位数年涨幅的资产来说，这次的飙升是一个极其极端的走势。黄金上一次以如此 快的速度上涨是在四十多年前，即通胀严重的1970年代后期，当时价格在一年内上涨了200%以上。 自那时以来，即使是像2008年或2020年这样的危机，也很少产生大致相当的上涨动能。2024年黄金回报 率虽然处于历史高位，约为25%，但2025年的涨幅更为剧烈。 总而言之，近50%的涨幅使得2025年的黄金市场与其说是一轮牛市，不如说是明确回到了黄金历史上最 戏剧化时期的狂热心理——需求主要由"恐惧"而非"贪婪"驱动。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成 格里芬的不安凸显了一种更深层次的焦虑：市场对美国机构的信心以及对美元作为世界储备货币的信念 正在被侵蚀。 格里芬周一表示："我们正在看到大量资产脱离美元，出现通胀，"他形容美国经济"有点像在吸食兴奋 剂（sugar high）"。 正如格里芬的评论 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce, while silver prices have also risen for the third consecutive trading day, nearing $44 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1][2] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of a shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with investors anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment [2] - The significant increase in gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings indicates enhanced institutional allocation interest, with last Friday's single-day increase marking the highest in over three years [2] Group 2 - The silver market is performing strongly, with London spot silver prices hovering around $44 per ounce, the highest level since August 2011, and a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract price has surpassed 10,000 yuan per kilogram, reaching a nearly 13-year high, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [3] - Silver prices are more elastic compared to gold, supported by active bullish options trading amid expectations of interest rate cuts, with the trading volume of the iShares Silver Trust options reaching a peak since April 2024 [3]

瑞银集团大幅上调其金价预测，认为受美联储宽松预期、美元走弱及地缘政治风险的共同作用下，黄金的牛市行情远未结束。 瑞银已将其2025年底的金价目标从原先的水平上调300美元，至每盎司3800美元。同时，该行还将2026年年中的金价预测上调200美元，至每盎司 3900美元。 近期，黄金市场已经表现出强劲的上涨势头，在本周二已创下每盎司3673.95美元的历史新高，年内累计涨幅超过39%。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨 0.3%至3644美元/盎司。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 | 1m | 5m | 15m | | 30m | 1H | 4H | 1D | 1W | 1M | | | | N | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3655.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 365 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2029 from $2850/oz to $3300/oz, maintaining a positive outlook on gold prices with potential risks pushing prices to $4500-$5000/oz [1] - The revision by Goldman Sachs comes after a sustained increase in gold prices and gold stocks, with Newmont rated as neutral but showing positive prospects in production, free cash flow, and capital management [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that margin expansion is a key driver for the strong performance of mining stocks, expecting the current gold stock cycle to continue, outperforming commodities throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - UBS has also raised its gold price forecasts, increasing the 2025 year-end prediction by $300 to $3800/oz and the mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3900/oz, citing expected Fed easing policies and geopolitical risks affecting the dollar [4] - UBS revised its estimate for gold ETF holdings, predicting they will exceed 3900 tons by the end of 2025, close to the record of 3915 tons set in October 2020, maintaining a bullish view on gold [4] - UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong at around 900-950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record levels, while highlighting the key risk of unexpected Fed rate hikes due to inflation [4]

Group 1 - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 20 years, with a return of 616% compared to the S&P 500's 421% [1] - As of Wednesday, gold has increased nearly 29% since the beginning of 2025, while the S&P 500 has only risen 8.1% this year [3] - The recent strong performance of gold is attributed to concerns over government debt levels and a weakening dollar, leading to increased demand for alternative currency assets [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has historically been a hedge against crises, but since 2020, it has shown strong performance even during stable market periods, indicating a new paradigm [4] - The relative performance of gold has fluctuated over the past 20 years, with exceptional performance from 2005 to 2014 due to low confidence in the financial system [7] - Many countries are now including gold in their foreign exchange reserves as part of a long-term strategy to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [7] Group 3 - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has attracted over $8 billion in inflows this year, despite a recent 1.2% decline [7] - The company believes that gold remains a valuable addition to diversified investment portfolios [8]

Group 1 - The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is seeking public comments on using local spot gold prices as a reference for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold is often regarded as a safe-haven asset, its risk-hedging capabilities are not absolute and are influenced by various market conditions and investor behavior [2][7]. - Gold has historically demonstrated stability during crises, such as wars and economic downturns, due to its scarcity and physical properties, which contribute to its demand as a tangible asset [3][4]. - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of dollar weakness [4]. Group 2 - Despite its reputation, gold is not immune to market volatility; during liquidity crises, investors may sell gold along with other assets, leading to price declines [4][5]. - Gold lacks yield generation, making it less attractive during periods of economic growth when investors may prefer higher-return assets like stocks and bonds [5]. - Market supply and demand fluctuations significantly impact gold prices, with changes in jewelry demand and ETF inflows/outflows being critical factors [5][6]. Group 3 - Liquidity risks in the gold market can affect trading conditions, with wider bid-ask spreads during extreme market conditions, complicating transactions [6]. - Investor behavior and market psychology play a crucial role in gold price movements, often driven by short-term speculation rather than fundamental factors [6]. - Gold's role in a diversified investment portfolio is to reduce overall risk, but over-reliance on gold can lead to insufficient returns, especially in bull markets [7].