Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 5, 2025, including the bias towards strong or weak oscillations, and provides resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 4, 2025, the stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly lower and then rising. The broader market also opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext 50 leading the gains. A - share trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of new A - share accounts in July increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Brokerage institutions are generally optimistic about the market outlook [13][15][16]. - On August 4, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures both opened higher, with the ten - year showing a slight upward trend and the thirty - year continuing to rebound. The central bank conducted 5448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 490 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, reaching a new high in July [35][39][40]. - On August 4, 2025, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.85% and COMEX silver futures up 1.40%. International oil prices fluctuated downward, with the U.S. oil main contract down 1.62% and the Brent crude main contract down 1.38%. London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 0.99%, LME copper up 0.81%, and LME nickel up 0.79%. The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose slightly [9][10][12]. 2. Futures Market Forecast for August 5, 2025 Stock Index Futures - IF2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 4087 and 4100 points and support levels at 4052 and 4035 points [2]. - IH2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 2785 and 2800 points and support levels at 2770 and 2763 points [2]. - IC2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6215 and 6275 points and support levels at 6169 and 6130 points [2]. - IM2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6700 and 6750 points and support levels at 6642 and 6590 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 108.60 and 108.65 yuan and support levels at 108.43 and 108.37 yuan [2]. - The thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 119.6 and 120.0 yuan, with support levels at 119.1 and 118.9 yuan [2]. Precious Metal Futures - The gold futures AU2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 786.8 and 791.2 yuan/gram, with support levels at 781.8 and 778.5 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 9100 and 9166 yuan/kg, with support levels at 9008 and 8985 yuan/kg [3]. Base Metal Futures - The copper futures CU2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78200 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78600 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum futures AL2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 20370 and 20300 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 20540 and 20600 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures AO2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 3162 and 3121 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3247 and 3274 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures ZN2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 22350 and 22420 yuan/ton and support levels at 22220 and 22130 yuan/ton [3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The industrial silicon futures SI2511 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 8220 and 8100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 8450 and 8500 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures PS2511 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support levels at 47700 and 47100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 49400 and 50400 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures LC2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range, with support levels at 67900 and 66900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 71100 and 72200 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar futures RB2510 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 3174 and 3160 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 3224 and 3236 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures HC2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 3449 and 3473 yuan/ton and support levels at 3400 and 3366 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 800 and 804 yuan/ton, with support levels at 790 and 787 yuan/ton [4]. - The coking coal futures JM2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1120 and 1092 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1166 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - The glass futures FG509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1050 and 1032 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1102 and 1112 yuan/ton [4]. - The soda ash futures SA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1225 and 1206 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1265 and 1285 yuan/ton [6]. - The crude oil futures SC2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 514 and 519 yuan/barrel [6]. - The PTA futures TA509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 4698 and 4720 yuan/ton [6]. - The PVC futures V2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4922 and 4900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 5020 and 5046 yuan/ton [6]. - The methanol futures MA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 2372 and 2359 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2385 and 2393 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Futures - The soybean meal futures M2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 3050 and 3071 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3014 and 3000 yuan/ton [6]. - The palm oil futures P2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 8926 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 8800 and 8770 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Macro - economic Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For overseas remittances over 5000 yuan or the equivalent of 1000 US dollars, the remitter's identity needs to be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards over 10,000 yuan at one time [7]. - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, the MLF had a net investment of 100 billion yuan, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 188 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net investment of 200 billion yuan. There were no open - market treasury bond transactions in July [7]. - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%, and imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [7]. - Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. Wang Qing believes that the new social financing in July will be about 1.7 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale year - on - year increase from the previous month. It is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements again around the end of the third quarter [8]. - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [8]. - Shanghai has issued policies to support enterprises in basic research, with a maximum one - time subsidy of 10 million yuan and tax incentives for basic research [8]. - Hainan has proposed 20 specific measures to accelerate the cultivation of three future industries: seed industry, deep - sea, and aerospace, and to strengthen tropical characteristic high - efficiency agriculture. The goal is that by 2027, the added value of the four leading industries will account for about 70% of GDP [8]. - U.S. President Trump said that India is reselling a large amount of Russian oil in the open market for huge profits and will significantly increase the tariffs imposed on India [9]. - The EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures against the U.S. that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 for six months and continue to cooperate with the U.S. to finalize a joint statement on trade [9]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts within the year are still an appropriate adjustment [9].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 29, 2025, futures main contract market trends. Index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly; gold futures will likely fluctuate weakly; some industrial product futures such as copper, aluminum, and silver will fluctuate and consolidate; some futures like alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil will likely fluctuate strongly; while futures of coke, glass, and soda ash will probably fluctuate weakly; crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly [2][3][4][5]. - The report also provides macro - news, commodity futures information, and analyzes the July 28, 2025, market trends of various futures contracts, including index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7][11][13]. Summary by Category Macro - news - National leaders made important instructions on flood prevention and disaster relief work [7]. - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, aiming to implement the consensus reached in previous meetings [7]. - The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [8]. - Changhe Group in Hong Kong is considering inviting a Chinese strategic investor to participate in the Panama Canal port business transaction, and the Chinese government will regulate it in accordance with the law [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the integration of urban and rural development and protecting the rights of rural migrants [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting consumer goods and emerging industries [9]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation aimed to improve market supervision systems and enhance safety supervision capabilities [9]. - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards from 2025 - 2030 [9]. - The State Taxation Administration reported on the investigation of tax evasion cases by online anchors and cases of fraudulent tax incentives [9]. - Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement [10]. - US President Trump mentioned potential tariffs on imports and his stance on Russia - Ukraine relations [10]. - The US Treasury increased the federal borrowing forecast for the quarter [10]. - Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement is determined, details remain to be discussed [10]. - The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs [10]. - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft with a record 126.7 billion euro investment [11]. Commodity Futures Information - Domestic industrial product futures saw a significant correction, with six main contracts including coke, glass, and soda ash hitting the daily limit down, and over 10 varieties such as alumina and polysilicon falling more than 3%. At night, the black - metal sector generally declined [11]. - The US - EU agreement and OPEC + production increase boosted oil prices, with US crude and Brent crude rising 2.79% and 2.87% respectively [11]. - International precious - metal futures generally closed lower on July 28, affected by the Thailand - Cambodia cease - fire agreement [12]. - Most London base metals closed lower on July 28, influenced by the Fed's policy and Sino - US trade uncertainties [12]. - Oil traders expect OPEC + to approve a significant production increase this weekend [12]. - Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month [12]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on July 28, and the US dollar index rose [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with some rising slightly and some falling slightly. It is expected that on July 29, index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, and in July 2025, they will likely fluctuate strongly [13][14][15][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. It is expected that on July 29, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly [38][40]. Gold Futures - On July 28, the main contract of gold futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [43]. Silver Futures - On July 28, the main contract of silver futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [49][50]. Copper Futures - On July 28, the main contract of copper futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [53]. Aluminum Futures - On July 28, the main contract of aluminum futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [58]. Alumina Futures - On July 28, the main contract of alumina futures fell significantly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of alumina futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [62]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of industrial silicon futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly and widely [67][68]. Polysilicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of polysilicon futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate widely [68]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [70]. Rebar Futures - On July 28, the main contract of rebar futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of rebar futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [73]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [78]. Iron Ore Futures - On July 28, the main contract of iron ore futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of iron ore futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [80]. Coke Futures - On July 28, the main contract of coke futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [85][86]. Glass Futures - On July 28, the main contract of glass futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [87]. Soda Ash Futures - On July 28, the main contract of soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [90]. Crude Oil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of crude oil futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly and widely, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [92]. PTA Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PTA futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [96]. PVC Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PVC futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [98]. Methanol Futures - On July 28, the main contract of methanol futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [100].

2025 年 5 月 30 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 原油、 燃料油期货将震荡偏弱 铜、氧化铝、工业硅、螺纹钢、焦 煤、玻璃、纯碱、PTA 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3865 点，支撑位 3815 和 3798 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2658 和 2646 点；IC2506 阻力位 5700 和 5749 点，支撑位 5616 和 ...