市场普遍认为，这波贵金属市场的回调更多是技术层面而非底层逻辑生变。美国银行首席投资策略师 Michael Hartnett在最新研报中称，对投资者而言，尽管黄金的短期波动剧烈，但驱动黄金和实物资产上 涨的宏观逻辑依然牢固。除非发生比当前宏观叙事更具破坏力的"更大事件"，否则这场由货币贬值驱动 的强势行情难以轻易终结。 每日经济新闻 1月26日-1月30日，受美元贬值及地缘冲突升级影响，金价持续冲高，28日触及5626美元后小幅震荡回 落，1月30日，受特朗普提名"鹰派"凯文・沃什出任美联储主席消息影响，黄金市场现巨幅波动，期货 黄金单日最大跌幅超14%，盘中最低触及4700美元/盎司，收盘下跌8.35%，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期 货报4907.5美元/盎司周度跌2.12%报4983.1美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度涨 4.33%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨7.23%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）周度涨2.18%。 近期国内外贵金属价格波动剧烈，市场不确定性显著增强，工商银行发布贵金属市场风险提示，建议投 资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of time management in research and investment, highlighting that time is the most scarce asset for individuals [3] - It advocates for focusing on significant issues and understanding the macro, industry, business, and financial logic to make informed decisions [5][6] - The essence of industries and their core drivers should be grasped, especially during critical changes, to identify investment opportunities [7][8] Group 1: Research and Investment Insights - Time management is crucial; individuals should prioritize researching significant issues over minor details [3] - Research should focus on major problems, industry directions, and high-probability outcomes [3] - A scientific and rational research methodology should be established and continuously optimized [4] Group 2: Analytical Frameworks - Four logical frameworks for analyzing important issues include macro logic, industry logic, business logic, and financial logic [5] - Macro logic considers economic factors, societal trends, and geopolitical relationships that influence industries [5] - Industry logic examines how core drivers and competitive factors change across different development stages [6] Group 3: Industry Characteristics and Changes - Understanding the essence of different industries is vital; for example, the stability of the water and electricity industry versus the rapid changes in technology-driven sectors [7] - Key drivers of industry growth and company success must be identified, such as product strength in consumer goods [8] - Recognizing critical changes at inflection points in industries, like the end of the smartphone boom, is essential for strategic investment [8] Group 4: Core Competencies and Business Models - Companies should align their business models with societal trends and human development to ensure sustainability [9] - The importance of a strong governance structure and entrepreneurial spirit in driving a company's core competitiveness is emphasized [10] - Sustainable competitive advantages can be built through strong systems, R&D capabilities, and brand loyalty [10] Group 5: Industry-Specific Analysis - In the consumer goods sector, the disappearance of demographic dividends and the rise of the middle class will shift market dynamics [11] - The service industry is expected to grow as consumer preferences shift towards experience and service consumption [14] - Manufacturing in China retains competitive advantages due to its comprehensive capabilities and large domestic market [18] Group 6: Research Methodology - Research involves three processes: induction, deduction, and empirical validation, which should be interlinked for effective analysis [24] - Induction requires organizing fragmented information to identify key issues, while deduction involves formulating hypotheses based on this information [24] - Empirical research validates hypotheses and can lead to new insights, enhancing understanding and decision-making [25] Group 7: Characteristics of Successful Researchers - Curiosity and a strong desire to learn are essential traits for effective researchers [26] - Honesty and self-reflection are critical for recognizing biases and improving research quality [29] - Independent thinking allows for clearer analysis and the development of a unique research framework [30] Group 8: Daily Work Recommendations - Establishing a personal network of experts can enhance research quality and provide diverse perspectives [33] - Continuous learning and broad reading are vital for staying informed and developing a comprehensive understanding of industries [35] - Structuring research documentation can improve efficiency and facilitate future analysis [37]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a downward trend in September, with prices under pressure despite the traditional peak season for demand approaching [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On September 1, the main rebar futures contract fell below 3100 yuan/ton, with the near-month contract hitting a two-month low of 3029 yuan/ton [1]. - Steel inventory has accumulated for four consecutive weeks since the end of July, increasing by 1.04 million tons [1]. - The coal inventory has risen, leading to a temporary decrease in cost lines, while downstream restocking has slowed [1]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - Although there is a seasonal improvement in steel demand expected in September, the extent of this improvement is uncertain and may not meet expectations [1][3]. - The real estate sector continues to face significant downward pressure, with current policies focused on destocking, limiting the impact on construction material consumption [1][2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Steel mills are likely to resume production after initial production cuts, which may lead to an increase in electric arc furnace output in September and October [2]. - The changes in demand and steel mill profits will be the main factors influencing steel supply in September and the fourth quarter [2]. Group 4: Price Forecast - The expected price range for rebar in September is between 3100-3350 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil prices are projected to range from 3250-3450 yuan/ton [3]. - Iron ore demand is expected to remain high, but with narrowing steel mill profits and ongoing policies, iron and steel production may decline in the fourth quarter [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti -内卷 trading in the soda ash and glass industries has entered an accelerated stage, with prices in a rapid upward phase due to industry self - regulation and supply - side policy details, but the industry may struggle to break free from the prisoner's dilemma without strong policy pressure [14][23] - For soda ash, the next large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, with limited maintenance premiums and scale. The current market has not returned to the industrial logic. The market is experiencing a hoarding wave, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback from future price drops [7][10] - For glass, although the production and sales have improved recently, the actual demand is still in doubt. The deep - processing orders have not improved, and attention should be paid to the conversion of expectations into reality and the roll - over of futures contracts [20][23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 72.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 tons (-1.3%). The decrease was due to the maintenance of enterprises such as Xuzhou Fengcheng, Jiangsu Shilian, and Zhongyuan Chemical III. Gansu Jinchang is planned to have a one - month maintenance starting from July 26. The next large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, with limited premiums and scale [7] - The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was -35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 48.20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was 17.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton [7] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 76.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.9 tons (a 12.3% increase), and for light soda ash was 35.6 tons (an 8.8% increase). The market hoarding wave continued, and the number of hoarding manufacturers gradually increased [10] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 186.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 tons. Light soda ash was de - stocked by 4.1 tons, and heavy soda ash by 0.02 tons. Except for the northwest region, the shipment rates in other regions exceeded 100%, and the northwest region had an inventory increase of 5 tons [13] - Middle - stream: The middle - stream inventory showed a downward trend. The social inventory increased by 23.7% week - on - week to 30.5 tons, and there were 856 warehouse receipts [13] - Downstream: The soda ash inventory days of some sample float glass enterprises increased [13] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily melting volume of float glass was 15.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,150 tons. One production line was shut down during the week. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was -178.90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.21 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was 121.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.05 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was -4.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.71 yuan/ton [17] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment publicly solicited opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry (Draft for Comment)", with stricter carbon emission management compared to 2018 [17][23] 3.2.2 Demand - This week, the production and sales of glass improved, with strong speculative demand and manufacturers' inventory reduction. However, the deep - processing orders did not improve. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [20] 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the glass inventory decreased by 4.7% to 61.896 million heavy boxes. The replenishment willingness of the middle and downstream increased, but there was still pressure from locked - in inventory on the futures market, and the downstream's rigid demand digestion ability was limited [23] 3.3 Price and Market Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash - The spot and futures prices of soda ash both increased this week. For example, the price of Huazhong heavy - quality soda ash (delivered) increased from 1,200 yuan/ton last week to 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.33% [26] 3.3.2 Glass - The spot and futures prices of glass also rose. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall glass increased from 1,160 yuan/ton last week to 1,297 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11.81% [122]