光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报 | 率震荡小幅上行，收益率曲线陡峭化。展望 12 月，资金宽松但降息预期较 | | --- | | 弱，经济边际走弱但整体保持韧性，通胀延续温和回升态势，预计年内延续 | | 窄幅震荡走势。 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 03 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日市场全天震荡调整，三大指数集体下挫。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 3700 股飘绿，成交超 1.6 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.42%，深成指跌 0.68%，创 | | | | 业板指跌 0.69%。随着 6 月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本 | | | | 面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存在 | | | | 乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显， | | | | 中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A - share market closed lower with volatility yesterday. The liquidity rally since June is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, but they lack event catalysts and are in a volatile phase. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and it's hard to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expected divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower yesterday. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, achieving a net injection of 115 billion yuan. The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. The economic outlook for the fourth quarter is stable, the short - term necessity of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the A - share market was volatile and closed down. The Wind All - A index fell 0.3% with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes declined by 0.82% and 0.4% respectively, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes rose by 0.58% and 0.44% respectively. The new - quality productivity themes led by AI have good mid - term profitability expectations but lack short - term catalysts. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also faced setbacks last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yesterday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. After the expiration of 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, a net injection of 115 billion yuan was achieved. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of sufficient funds, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH rose 0.45% from 2,997.6 to 3,011.0, the IF increased 0.22% from 4,555.0 to 4,565.2, the IC decreased 0.35% from 7,079.8 to 7,054.8, and the IM dropped 0.73% from 7,351.8 to 7,298.2 [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.58% from 3,003.0 to 3,020.3, the CSI 300 increased 0.44% from 4,568.2 to 4,588.3, the CSI 500 decreased 0.40% from 7,151.0 to 7,122.7, and the CSI 1000 dropped 0.82% from 7,448.1 to 7,387.2 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS fell 0.03% from 102.49 to 102.46, the TF decreased 0.04% from 105.92 to 105.88, the T dropped 0.07% from 108.50 to 108.43, and the TL declined 0.38% from 116.53 to 116.09 [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised and released the "Guidelines for the Application of Self - regulatory Rules for Funds of the Shanghai Stock Exchange No. 1 - Index Funds (Revised in November 2025)", which came into effect on November 19, 2025. For index funds with non - broad - based stock indexes as underlying indexes, several requirements need to be met, such as the number of constituent securities being no less than 30, the single - constituent security weight not exceeding 15% and the total weight of the top 5 constituent securities not exceeding 60%, etc. [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Charts include the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, and the basis and inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [13][14][19]. 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - Charts show the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [22][23][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The current fundamental logic of crude oil is not smoothly realized, and short - term geopolitical risks may re - emerge. The energy and chemical sectors and the crude oil market have diverged again, with the fundamental logic being the main driver. Core products like synthetic rubber and styrene have been declining, and non - core products like methanol have also shown a downward trend. Due to the possible US military action against Venezuela, it is recommended to take active profit - taking actions on oil - chemical related products and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions after the event [1]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The impact of US sanctions on Russia has been digested. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the gradually realized supply - demand surplus. However, the supply - demand logic has not been smoothly realized recently. The probability of a US sea - air operation against Venezuela is high, which may affect the market similar to the bombing of Iran in July. It is recommended to take profit on short positions to avoid risks [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a small increase in positions and a long - yang line testing the short - term pressure at 471, but it did not break through. Technically, it has not turned bullish in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses and wait and see due to geopolitical risks [3]. Styrene - Logic: It is the most bearish product in the energy and chemical sector, with weak reality and weak expectations. The core logic is the continuous inventory build - up due to new device production and slow demand growth, especially with the approaching seasonal inventory build - up in January. There is a risk of price collapse. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a small decline. The short - term pressure is at 6630. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event [6]. Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The short - term contradiction is not obvious, and there is a certain bullish driving force due to continuous inventory reduction recently. The medium - term focus is on when the inventory build - up pressure in the peak season will appear [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 15450. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The high supply pressure of cis - butadiene rubber continues, but the supply - demand contradiction is gradually weakening. The main driving logic is the cost side of butadiene. The high supply and high inventory of butadiene have led to cost loosening and the price hitting a record low. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a record low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 10850. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event (cumulative decline of 13.5% since September entry) [13]. PX - Logic: High profits drive high - level operation, with sufficient supply and stable demand. The main logic is to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 6560. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [19]. PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The main logic is to follow the cost fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4660. It is recommended to take profit on 15 - minute short positions [21]. PP - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6670. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on the hourly - cycle [24]. Methanol - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue to exert pressure, but as Iran enters the heating season, the short - term buying time is approaching. The possible US action against Venezuela may affect crude oil, and it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions to avoid risks [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2210. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 14% since the end of July entry) [29]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a record high. There is no upward driving force. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4760. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Continuous inventory build - up has increased the downward pressure on the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4050. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 8.8% since early September entry) [32]. Plastic - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6990. It is recommended to take profit on hourly - cycle short positions [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues. The demand has further weakened due to the planned maintenance of 4 production lines in the glass industry on the weekend. The downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The remaining hourly - cycle short positions should be held [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a large increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 1245 [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. The profit of downstream alumina is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a decline in positions and a rebound that did not break through the pressure. The short - term pressure is at 2400 [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may gradually recover in an oscillatory and progressive manner as the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and commodity pressure eases, but other markets, seasonal factors, and regulatory policies may cause oscillations during the recovery process. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation, and long - term bond rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with rates expected to hit new lows this year [4][6][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Performance This Week - This week, both long - term and short - term bonds remained oscillating. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, 250011.IB and 2500002.IB, changed by - 1.25bps and 0.95bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.77% and 2.03%. After the month - end, the capital price remained loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit stayed at around 1.67%. Credit interest rates declined slightly, with the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 1.7bps and 1.9bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.92% and 2.05% [1][9] Weakening Impact of the Stock and Commodity Markets on the Bond Market - The impact of the stock and commodity markets on the bond market has gradually weakened. The 10 - day moving correlation coefficient between the daily interest rate change of the 30 - year active bond and the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from around 0.8 in late July to around 0.15 currently. On one hand, it is due to the change in bond institutional positions; on the other hand, the relative cost - effectiveness of bonds compared with stocks has gradually increased. Since the end of July, the commodity price index has continued to decline, and the Nanhua Industrial Product Price Index on September 4th has cumulatively dropped by 6.3% compared with the high on July 25th [2][10] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The loose capital and banks' under - allocation are the main protections for the bond market. The fundamentals are still under pressure, the demand is not strong, and the financing demand is insufficient, so the loose capital situation remains unchanged. The future asset supply will further decline, and the net financing of government bonds in the next 4 months may significantly decrease compared with the same period last year. For banks, the deposit growth rate is rising while the credit growth rate is slowing down, so banks need to increase bond allocation to make up for the gap, and they may have a high willingness to increase allocation [3][10] Reasons for the Oscillatory and Progressive Recovery of the Bond Market - Other markets still impact the bond market. Although the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened, non - banks still hold a relatively high position in long - term bonds, and a significant rise in the stock market may lead to institutional selling and short - term bond market fluctuations. Seasonal factors may restrict the downward speed of interest rates. September is often a period of interest rate adjustment, and October is an oscillatory period. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may reduce institutional willingness to invest in bond funds, and the redemption behavior may bring short - term adjustment pressure to the market [4][14][17]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend, closing up 0.33% at 3609.71 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86% to 2406.59 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 180.32 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Highlights - The technology growth sector performed exceptionally well, with significant gains in areas such as innovative drugs, PCB, CXO, and CPO [1] - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slow bull market [1] Competition Insights - The ongoing "掘金大赛" (Gold Digging Competition) has attracted many participants who are seizing market opportunities [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate stock trading with a virtual capital of 500,000 yuan, running from July 21 to July 31 [3] Participant Benefits - Participants in the competition receive various benefits, including free access to the "火线快评" (Fire Line Quick Review) for five days upon successful registration [6][10] - Top performers in each competition round receive additional rewards, including cash prizes and extended access to the "火线快评" [6][10] Investment Strategies - Participants are advised to focus on holding stocks during significant market movements rather than frequently trading [7] - There are two prevailing profit models in the A-share market: one driven by trading sentiment and the other based on fundamental logic supported by performance [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti -内卷 trading in the soda ash and glass industries has entered an accelerated stage, with prices in a rapid upward phase due to industry self - regulation and supply - side policy details, but the industry may struggle to break free from the prisoner's dilemma without strong policy pressure [14][23] - For soda ash, the next large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, with limited maintenance premiums and scale. The current market has not returned to the industrial logic. The market is experiencing a hoarding wave, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback from future price drops [7][10] - For glass, although the production and sales have improved recently, the actual demand is still in doubt. The deep - processing orders have not improved, and attention should be paid to the conversion of expectations into reality and the roll - over of futures contracts [20][23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 72.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 tons (-1.3%). The decrease was due to the maintenance of enterprises such as Xuzhou Fengcheng, Jiangsu Shilian, and Zhongyuan Chemical III. Gansu Jinchang is planned to have a one - month maintenance starting from July 26. The next large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, with limited premiums and scale [7] - The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was -35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 48.20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was 17.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton [7] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 76.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.9 tons (a 12.3% increase), and for light soda ash was 35.6 tons (an 8.8% increase). The market hoarding wave continued, and the number of hoarding manufacturers gradually increased [10] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 186.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 tons. Light soda ash was de - stocked by 4.1 tons, and heavy soda ash by 0.02 tons. Except for the northwest region, the shipment rates in other regions exceeded 100%, and the northwest region had an inventory increase of 5 tons [13] - Middle - stream: The middle - stream inventory showed a downward trend. The social inventory increased by 23.7% week - on - week to 30.5 tons, and there were 856 warehouse receipts [13] - Downstream: The soda ash inventory days of some sample float glass enterprises increased [13] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily melting volume of float glass was 15.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,150 tons. One production line was shut down during the week. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was -178.90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.21 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was 121.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.05 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was -4.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.71 yuan/ton [17] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment publicly solicited opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry (Draft for Comment)", with stricter carbon emission management compared to 2018 [17][23] 3.2.2 Demand - This week, the production and sales of glass improved, with strong speculative demand and manufacturers' inventory reduction. However, the deep - processing orders did not improve. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [20] 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the glass inventory decreased by 4.7% to 61.896 million heavy boxes. The replenishment willingness of the middle and downstream increased, but there was still pressure from locked - in inventory on the futures market, and the downstream's rigid demand digestion ability was limited [23] 3.3 Price and Market Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash - The spot and futures prices of soda ash both increased this week. For example, the price of Huazhong heavy - quality soda ash (delivered) increased from 1,200 yuan/ton last week to 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.33% [26] 3.3.2 Glass - The spot and futures prices of glass also rose. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall glass increased from 1,160 yuan/ton last week to 1,297 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11.81% [122]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a prolonged downturn, yet some leading crypto companies are pursuing IPOs, signaling a potential market bottom [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Environment - The current economic climate is characterized by uncertainty, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum under pressure, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1] - Despite a tightening liquidity environment and increased regulatory scrutiny, some companies are opting for IPOs, which may indicate confidence in their fundamentals [3][4] Group 2: IPO Dynamics - Companies choosing to go public during a bear market are likely doing so to enhance transparency and stabilize valuations, contrasting with the speculative frenzy seen during bull markets [3][4] - The shift from speculative trading to a focus on fundamental business performance is evident, as investors prioritize real revenue capabilities and compliance pathways [3][4] Group 3: Industry Maturity - The cryptocurrency sector is witnessing a maturation in governance, finance, anti-money laundering practices, and user data protection, aligning more closely with traditional public company standards [4] - Technological advancements, such as the expansion of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions and new Bitcoin applications, are accelerating industry evolution and laying the groundwork for future growth [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The IPO activities of crypto firms should be viewed as part of a long-term strategic deployment rather than a direct signal of market reversal [5] - The current environment may represent a critical "bottom-building" phase for the crypto market, suggesting that patient investors could find new opportunities as the industry stabilizes [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is expected to be in a volatile state [1][2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is bullish in the short - term [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US ISM services index in April unexpectedly rose to 51.6, with the price index reaching a new high in over two years, and improvements in employment and new orders. US Treasury Secretary Yellen touts the US, saying that Trump's policy combination such as tax cuts will attract investment in the US, and the US GDP growth may approach 3% by this time next year. Pan Gongsheng attended and chaired the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea, and the meeting passed relevant arrangements for a new rapid financing tool funded by freely usable currencies such as the RMB. With a relatively stable internal environment, high external uncertainties, and a potentially long - lasting tariff game, the stock index may fluctuate [1] Treasury Bond - The game of external shocks and the liquidity situation remain the main trading themes in the market. There is a time - lag effect in the transmission of external shocks to the domestic economy, and the potential depth of their impact has not fully emerged. Under the medium - to - long - term fundamental logic, the bond market is still in a favorable environment. On the first trading day after the holiday, the maturity volume of OMO is relatively concentrated. Continuously monitor whether the central level of capital interest rates can effectively decline to release the downward space for the short - and medium - term, which will also provide greater support for the long - term [2] 3. Market Reviews Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.97% [4] - On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the CSI 300 continuous contract was 3730.60 yuan per contract, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of 38,102 lots and an open interest of 134,340 lots; the SSE 50 continuous contract closed at 2628.00 yuan per contract, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 21,403 lots and an open interest of 42,616 lots; the CSI 500 continuous contract closed at 5471.00 yuan per contract, down 0.52%, with a trading volume of 37,058 lots and an open interest of 96,080 lots; the CSI 1000 continuous contract closed at 5729.00 yuan per contract, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 120,927 lots and an open interest of 159,258 lots [9] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the 10 - year treasury bond continuous contract was 108.84 yuan per contract, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 57,270 lots and an open interest of 186,819 lots; the 5 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 105.91 yuan per contract, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 45,830 lots and an open interest of 158,011 lots; the 30 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 120.18 yuan per contract, up 0.30%, with a trading volume of 67,316 lots and an open interest of 104,543 lots; the 2 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 102.32 yuan per contract, up 0.01%, with a trading volume of 33,165 lots and an open interest of 94,570 lots [9] 4. Technical Analyses Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly bullish trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating with a slightly bullish trend [7]