Group 1 - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major futures contracts opening lower and many popular products experiencing sharp declines, including焦煤, 玻璃, and 纯碱, which fell over 5% [1][2] - The 文华 commodity index dropped nearly 1.5% in early trading, with焦煤, 玻璃, and other black series products seeing substantial losses, leading to a further decline in the afternoon [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% has contributed to reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, impacting market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including碳酸锂, 工业硅, and 多晶硅, experienced significant declines, with多晶硅 dropping 7.81% to 49,130元/吨 by the end of trading [4] - The supply side for焦煤 shows a recovery in domestic coal production and high inventory levels, while demand from焦化企业 remains under pressure due to production losses [3][5] - The recent adjustments in trading rules for industrial silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate contracts aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major futures contracts opening lower on July 31, leading to substantial drops in popular products like coking coal, glass, and soda ash, with declines exceeding 5% [1][2] - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell nearly 1.5% in early trading, with notable declines in black series products and the glass sector, which saw a drop of over 8% by the end of the trading day [2][4] Group 2: Specific Commodity Performance - Coking coal futures hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while glass futures dropped 8.22% to 1117 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 6.62% [2][4] - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, experienced significant declines, with polysilicon dropping 7.81% to 49130 yuan/ton and lithium carbonate down 4.66% to 68280 yuan/ton [4][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply is stabilizing with upstream coal mine inventories at reasonable levels, while demand from coking enterprises remains strong despite current production losses [3][5] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment, with polysilicon production rates at historical lows of 30-40%, leading to an improved supply situation, while lithium carbonate faces pressure from increasing inventories despite stable domestic production [5][6] Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reiterated its commitment to "anti-involution" policies, which may support the market but have led to a cooling of speculative demand [6] - Recent adjustments by the exchange on margin requirements and trading limits for major contracts aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major declines observed in various popular products, particularly in the black series and photovoltaic industry chain products [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On July 31, domestic futures opened lower, with many popular products experiencing declines over 5%, including焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and 纯碱 (soda ash) [1][2]. - The 文华 commodity index fell nearly 1.5% in the morning session, with焦煤 (coking coal) and 玻璃 (glass) seeing significant drops, including a 8.22% decline in the glass main contract [2]. - By the afternoon, the commodity market accelerated its decline, with the 文华 commodity index dropping over 2% [2]. Group 2: Black Series Products - The black series products, including 硅铁 (ferrosilicon), 锰硅 (manganese silicon), and 焦炭 (coke), experienced widespread declines, with 焦煤 (coking coal) hitting the limit down [2][3]. -焦煤 (coking coal) prices reached 1045.5元/吨, while 焦炭 (coke) and 螺纹钢 (rebar) also saw significant drops of 4.93% and 4.19%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including 碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate), 工业硅 (industrial silicon), and 多晶硅 (polysilicon), experienced deep corrections, with 碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) and 工业硅 (industrial silicon) dropping 6% [4]. - The main contract for 多晶硅 (polysilicon) fell by 7.81%, closing at 49130元/吨, while 工业硅 (industrial silicon) and 碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) closed at 8760元/吨 and 68280元/吨, respectively [4]. - The overall production of 多晶硅 (polysilicon) is expected to approach 110,000 tons, with a significant increase anticipated in August [4][5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The sentiment in the commodity market has cooled following the recent macroeconomic developments, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [2][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for standard improvements in key industries like photovoltaics, which may lead to the exit of outdated production capacity [6]. - Recent adjustments in trading rules, including limits on open positions for major contracts, aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major declines observed in various popular products, particularly in the black series and photovoltaic industry chain products [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On July 31, domestic futures opened lower, with many popular products experiencing declines exceeding 5%, including焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and 纯碱 (soda ash) [1][2]. - The 文华商品指数 (Wenhua Commodity Index) fell nearly 1.5% in the morning session, with significant drops in焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and other black series products [2]. - By the afternoon, the index dropped over 2%, with glass and silicon iron hitting their daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Black Series Products -焦煤 (coking coal) saw its main contract hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while other black series products like焦炭 (coke) and螺纹钢 (rebar) also experienced significant declines of 4.93% and 4.19%, respectively [2]. - The supply side for焦煤 (coking coal) is stabilizing, with upstream coal mine inventories returning to reasonable levels and production recovering [3]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate), 工业硅 (industrial silicon), and 多晶硅 (polysilicon), experienced deep corrections, with declines of 6% and more [4]. - By the end of trading,多晶硅 (polysilicon) fell 7.81% to 49,130 yuan/ton, while industrial silicon and lithium carbonate also saw significant drops [4]. - The overall production of多晶硅 (polysilicon) is expected to approach 110,000 tons, with a significant increase anticipated in August [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent decline in market sentiment is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic factors, with investors awaiting further policy guidance [2][5]. - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with cautious trading strategies recommended for多晶硅 (polysilicon) and碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) due to ongoing pressures in the supply-demand balance [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to limit speculative trading in industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, which may help mitigate market risks [5][6].