中信证券表示，2026年以来，商品投资热度持续升温，虽然经历了贵金属价格剧烈震荡引发的投资情绪 降温，但在避险情绪、基本面改善、战略储备等因素影响下，我们预计商品仍将作为2026年的投资优选 方向。避险以及对冲美元风险角度，贵金属和原油预计受益；基本面角度，碳酸锂和镍的改善趋势明 确；工业金属铜铝阶段性需求承压，但中长期逻辑依然坚实，硅料、煤炭和钢铁等行业继续受到反内卷 政策影响，价格走势等待政策和基本面指引。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

据了解，有色矿业ETF招商(场内：159690；场外：026477)前三大权重品种铜（31%）、金（14%）、 铝（12%）合计占比近6成，龙头集中度高。还自带"杠杆属性"，被称为"周期放大器"：由于集中投资 上游资源龙头，在矿业公司成本相对固定时，有色金属价格上涨导致涨价部分几乎全是利润。因此形成 利润+估值双提升的"戴维斯双击"行情，净值涨幅数倍于商品本身。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 消息面，据 Bitget 行情信息，现货黄金站上 5190 美元/盎司，日内涨 0.24%。现货白银向上触及 114 美 元/盎司，日内涨 1.54%。国金证券首席策略分析师牟一凌认为，对于商品而言，资产配置属性驱动了 本轮的上涨且当前定价并不极致，对冲美元风险下黄金储备有望继续上升，且商品计价的黄金股相对其 他资源股较为低估，有修复需求。 1月28日，金银继续上攻！数据显示，截至10时15分，有色矿业ETF招商(159690)放量涨超3%，成分股 白银有色、湖南黄金涨停、西部黄金、山东黄金涨幅居前。 | 官 - | 代码 | 有色型(ETF招商159690成分喜观 | | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | ...

Market Trends and Industry Dynamics - The dollar index has fallen by over 10% since the beginning of the year, marking its worst performance in nearly half a century [1] - Global asset prices, including gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, have experienced a significant surge [1] - Global stock markets, including US, European, A-shares, Hong Kong, and Japanese stocks, have generally increased [1] - The correlation between the S&P 500 index and a "mysterious index" reached a high of 824% over the past 5 years [1] Investment Opportunities and Potential Risks - The primary driver of the dollar's decline is risk, particularly related to Trump's tariff policies and concerns about the US government's creditworthiness [1] - Foreign capital inflows into US stock ETFs have increasingly been hedged against dollar risk, with over 80% of funds now employing hedging strategies [1] - Gold has become a preferred safe-haven asset, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, especially from North America [2] - Market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are heavily influencing the dollar's movements [2] US Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - The market is closely monitoring US non-farm payroll (NFP) data to anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2] - There have been substantial revisions to the NFP data, raising concerns about its accuracy and reliability [3] - Trump's administration is attempting to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the central bank's independence [3][4] Global Economic Impact - A weaker dollar and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to benefit other countries, particularly developing nations [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar may depreciate by approximately 10% to around 91 by the end of next year [4]