Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the worst is over, expecting the index to rise by 14% to 7800 points by 2026 [1] - Four reasons are provided for the growth cycle in the economy, corporate profits, and the stock market: (1) Corporate profit expectations have rebounded significantly from a low of -25% in April to around +15% currently [1] (2) Slowing wage growth allows for expansion in corporate profit margins [1] (3) Consumer demand is expected to accelerate, with companies showing stronger pricing power [1] (4) Following a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, two more rate cuts are anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Several market sectors are expected to perform well: (1) Non-essential consumer goods stocks, which have been rated "underweight" for four years, typically perform well during economic recoveries [3] (2) Small-cap stocks, which are cyclical and benefit more from declining interest rates [3] (3) Financial stocks, with potential improvements in commercial and industrial loan growth next year, making them attractive in terms of profit revisions, valuations, and holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform large-cap counterparts in terms of profit growth, potentially leading to increased merger and acquisition activity in the sector [1] Group 1: Profit Growth Expectations - Companies in the S&P 600 small-cap index are projected to see a profit growth of 14% in the third quarter, surpassing the nearly 12% growth rate of the S&P 500 index [1] - Analysts suggest that small companies may achieve faster earnings growth compared to larger peers, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - Further interest rate cuts are anticipated to benefit small companies, which typically carry higher debt burdens, thereby enhancing their profitability [1] - The potential for small-cap stocks to deliver excess returns by 2026 is highlighted for investors seeking opportunities [1] Group 3: Valuation and M&A Activity - Relatively cheap valuations of small-cap stocks may trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions, providing additional support for the sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the negative impact of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on the economy and the ongoing challenges faced by the Federal Reserve due to a lack of official data [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reignited market interest in small-cap stocks, which have outperformed large-cap stocks by nearly 4% since April [2] - Employment data has shown a concerning trend, with a reported loss of 91,100 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, raising investor concerns about data reliability [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to an increased allocation to U.S. small-cap stocks, shifting the allocation stance to neutral for large-cap stocks [2] - The macro environment is favorable for growth stocks, particularly in the AI/technology sector, prompting a shift towards growth-oriented investments [2] - The company maintains a low allocation to bonds due to inflation and fiscal stimulus financing demands, which may keep interest rates under pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the sentiment for gold is cooling, and silver is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength for both gold and silver is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 814.88 with a daily increase of 1.31% and a night - session close of 821.68 with a 1.40% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3619.70 with a 0.56% increase [2]. - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9820 with a - 0.04% decrease and a night - session close of 9918.00 with a 1.34% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 41.810 with a 0.19% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: - Gold: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 contract against 2512 contract was 265,502, an increase of 66,450 from the previous day; the position was 142,330, an increase of 3,706 [2]. - Silver: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 627,101, an increase of 79,159 from the previous day; the position was 270,592, a decrease of 12,126 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory Data**: - ETF: SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 984.26, a decrease of 6 from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory was 40,251 kg, an increase of 60 kg from the previous day; Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,227,039 kg, an increase of 11,811 kg [2]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost Data**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 4.91, unchanged from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [2]. - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 24, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: - The US dollar index was 98.16, a decrease of 0.16%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.15, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US economic data shows mixed signals: The ISM services index expansion speed reached a six - month high, but employment was weak; ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June; the trade deficit widened to a four - month high due to a surge in imports [2][5]. - Fed's stance: The Fed's third - in - command said that gradual interest rate cuts were appropriate, while a voting member for next year reiterated that they did not support a rate cut in September [5]. - Other news: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed governor Cook; Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese products; Nasdaq tightened regulations on cryptocurrency concept stocks and small - cap stocks [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength for gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investing in the broader S&P 500 index is generally safe and aligns with the average economic growth of the U.S., but it sacrifices higher growth potential due to diversification [1] - Focusing on the business cycle allows for low-risk setups while targeting industries that may outperform the S&P 500, making ETFs a potentially profitable choice [2] Group 2: ETF Performance - The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 6% in the past quarter, indicating strong future potential driven by expanding balance sheets and earnings per share (EPS) [5] - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2% over the past month, with expectations of increased consumer spending as tariff fears subside [9] - The Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 3% over the past month, suggesting a bullish momentum in the small-cap sector [12] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Looser capital requirements and leverage regulations are expected to benefit larger banks, while smaller banks may see significant growth in EPS due to their expanding balance sheets [5] - Consumer spending is anticipated to return to pre-tariff levels, which will likely lead to EPS expansion in the consumer discretionary sector [8] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, small-cap companies could benefit from reduced debt costs, enhancing their EPS potential [14]