格隆汇11月13日｜多年来，小型股一直未能实现其高贝塔值的声誉——尤其是在牛市中跑赢大盘方面。 分析师表示，这种情况可能即将改变，因为小型公司有望实现比大型同行更快的盈利增长。相对便宜的 估值也可能引发一波企业并购交易，这也将提振该板块。Scotiabank策略师Hugo Ste-Marie写道，标准普 尔600中小盘指数的公司第三季度利润有望增长14%。这将超过标普500指数近12%的增长率。Acuitas Investments首席投资官Chris Tessin认为，进一步降息应该会提振那些往往具有较高债务负担的小型公司 的利润。对于寻求2026年超额收益的投资者来说，小型股板块可能准备好交付回报。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the negative impact of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on the economy and the ongoing challenges faced by the Federal Reserve due to a lack of official data [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reignited market interest in small-cap stocks, which have outperformed large-cap stocks by nearly 4% since April [2] - Employment data has shown a concerning trend, with a reported loss of 91,100 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, raising investor concerns about data reliability [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to an increased allocation to U.S. small-cap stocks, shifting the allocation stance to neutral for large-cap stocks [2] - The macro environment is favorable for growth stocks, particularly in the AI/technology sector, prompting a shift towards growth-oriented investments [2] - The company maintains a low allocation to bonds due to inflation and fiscal stimulus financing demands, which may keep interest rates under pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the sentiment for gold is cooling, and silver is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength for both gold and silver is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 814.88 with a daily increase of 1.31% and a night - session close of 821.68 with a 1.40% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3619.70 with a 0.56% increase [2]. - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9820 with a - 0.04% decrease and a night - session close of 9918.00 with a 1.34% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 41.810 with a 0.19% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: - Gold: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 contract against 2512 contract was 265,502, an increase of 66,450 from the previous day; the position was 142,330, an increase of 3,706 [2]. - Silver: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 627,101, an increase of 79,159 from the previous day; the position was 270,592, a decrease of 12,126 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory Data**: - ETF: SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 984.26, a decrease of 6 from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory was 40,251 kg, an increase of 60 kg from the previous day; Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,227,039 kg, an increase of 11,811 kg [2]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost Data**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 4.91, unchanged from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [2]. - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 24, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: - The US dollar index was 98.16, a decrease of 0.16%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.15, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US economic data shows mixed signals: The ISM services index expansion speed reached a six - month high, but employment was weak; ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June; the trade deficit widened to a four - month high due to a surge in imports [2][5]. - Fed's stance: The Fed's third - in - command said that gradual interest rate cuts were appropriate, while a voting member for next year reiterated that they did not support a rate cut in September [5]. - Other news: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed governor Cook; Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese products; Nasdaq tightened regulations on cryptocurrency concept stocks and small - cap stocks [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength for gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investing in the broader S&P 500 index is generally safe and aligns with the average economic growth of the U.S., but it sacrifices higher growth potential due to diversification [1] - Focusing on the business cycle allows for low-risk setups while targeting industries that may outperform the S&P 500, making ETFs a potentially profitable choice [2] Group 2: ETF Performance - The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 6% in the past quarter, indicating strong future potential driven by expanding balance sheets and earnings per share (EPS) [5] - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2% over the past month, with expectations of increased consumer spending as tariff fears subside [9] - The Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 3% over the past month, suggesting a bullish momentum in the small-cap sector [12] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Looser capital requirements and leverage regulations are expected to benefit larger banks, while smaller banks may see significant growth in EPS due to their expanding balance sheets [5] - Consumer spending is anticipated to return to pre-tariff levels, which will likely lead to EPS expansion in the consumer discretionary sector [8] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, small-cap companies could benefit from reduced debt costs, enhancing their EPS potential [14]