小盘价值风格表现突出，多只宽基指数 ETF 呈现资金流出 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 科 创 板指 数将 迎来 样本 调 整，私募新规发布—公募基 金周报 2026.03. 02 权益市场震荡修复，宽基指 数多数呈现资金流出态势— 公募基金周报 2025. 02.25 公募 FOF 规模超过 2800 亿 元，权益市场震荡回撤—公 募基金周报 2025. 02.09 核心观点： ⚫ 上月市场回顾： 2 月沪深市场主要指数涨跌互现，其中，中证 500 和中小板指涨幅居前，上涨幅度均超 过 3%，科创 50 跌幅最大，为 1.42%。31 个申万一级行业中 23 个行业上涨，涨幅前 5 的行业分别为综合、钢铁、建筑材料、环保和机械设备；跌幅前 5 的行业为传媒、商业 贸易、非银金融、银行和医药生物。 新开户情况方面，根据上交所最新披露的数据，2026年 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market exhibited a comprehensive upward trend, with major indices showing an average increase of over 10%. The growth was particularly pronounced in growth sectors, with the ChiNext Index, North Exchange 50, and Sci-Tech 50 indices each rising by over 30% [1][3]. - The structural characteristics of the market were evident, with technology and resource sectors leading the performance. The optical module (CPO) index surged by over 180%, while indices for optical chips, copper-clad laminates, optical communications, and optical circuit switches all exceeded 100% growth [1][3]. A-share Index Performance - The ChiNext Index led the gains in 2025 with a cumulative increase of 49.57%. The North Exchange 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices followed with increases of 38.80% and 35.92%, respectively. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, Wind All A, and CSI 1000 also saw gains exceeding 20% [3]. A-share Industry Performance - Among the 35 industries classified by Wind, 31 recorded increases in 2025. The non-ferrous metals industry topped the list with a cumulative increase of 92.20%. Hardware equipment and industrial trade sectors also performed well, with increases of 62.39% and 54.65%, respectively. Conversely, the daily consumer retail sector saw a decline of 6.42% [5]. A-share Hot Concepts - The optical module (CPO) index was the strongest performer in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 181.28%. Other notable performers included optical chips (130.78%), copper-clad laminates (129.58%), optical communications (125.58%), and optical circuit switches (112.55%). The rare metals, copper industry, and rare earth indices also showed significant growth, with increases of 119.85%, 103.64%, and 98.97%, respectively [9]. A-share Market Capitalization - By the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of the A-share market reached approximately 118.91 trillion yuan, marking a 26.6% increase from the end of 2024 [15]. - The Shanghai main board had the highest number of listed companies at 1,699, accounting for 31.06% of the total. The Shenzhen main board followed with 1,490 companies (27.24%), while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards had 1,393 and 600 companies, representing 25.47% and 10.97%, respectively [13]. Financing and Investment Trends - As of the end of 2025, the A-share margin trading balance was reported at 25.553 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.21% increase from the third quarter and a year-on-year increase of 35.91% [22]. - The top gainers in terms of stock price included Weiwei New Materials, which saw a cumulative increase of 1,820%, followed by Tianpu Co., with a 1,645% increase. Conversely, Shijin Technology led the decline with a 51% drop [24]. IPO Activity - In 2025, the A-share market saw a total of 112 IPOs, representing a 9.8% increase year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone accounted for 36 IPOs, up 9.1% from the previous year [49]. - The total fundraising from IPOs in 2025 reached 130.83 billion yuan, a significant increase of 97.4% year-on-year, with the fourth quarter alone raising 54.86 billion yuan, up 165.0% [51].

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators showed a slight decline, with the sentiment score at 1.75 as of October 10, down from 1.85 on September 26, indicating a bearish outlook [8][11] - The trading volume for the entire A-share market increased slightly compared to the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 26,718.18 billion RMB on October 9, indicating improved market activity [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continued to rise, reflecting an increase in market leverage sentiment and improved trading atmosphere among investors [24][26] Group 2 - The model indicates a preference for small-cap value style, with a weak signal strength due to a slight decline in the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting further observation is needed [30][41] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as banks, steel, public utilities, and construction decoration have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals currently having the highest short-term score of 98.31 [30][32] - High trading congestion in sectors like non-ferrous metals and coal, alongside lower price increases in sectors like automobiles and electronics, suggests potential volatility risks and opportunities for gradual allocation in low-congestion sectors like pharmaceuticals and beauty care [37][36]

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicator decreased to 0.05 from 0.8, indicating a bearish outlook [3][9] - The price-volume consistency has declined, suggesting a lack of active capital and increased uncertainty in short-term sentiment [3][13] - Total A-share trading volume fell to 1.09 trillion RMB, the lowest of the month, with a daily trading volume of 87.774 billion shares [3][17] Group 2 - The small-cap value style is currently favored, but there are signs of a potential strengthening of large-cap style [3][30] - The electronic industry showed a significant short-term trend score increase of 25.00%, with banking, oil and petrochemicals, communication, and defense industries being the strongest in short-term trends [3][30][31] - The industry performance showed that oil and petrochemicals, banking, and non-bank financial sectors maintained strong gains, while beauty care, environmental protection, and automotive sectors faced significant declines [3][24][25]