Can this rally be sustained. Well, I think you have to kind of stand back and look at the bigger picture. You know, the rally that we saw, for instance, in the late seventies and early eighties was something that was, you know, remarkable at the time.But if you look at today's rally and comparison, you know, it's still barely a scratch on that. I'm not obviously saying that necessarily it's going to go to the same extremes. We're already ahead of it in nominal terms.But in terms of when it's a regime shift, ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of decision-making in life and investment, emphasizing that good decisions can lead to better opportunities and outcomes [1][2] - It highlights the case of Bill Ackman, who made a significant profit of $3.6 billion by strategically using credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against the risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4] - Ackman's approach involved a small investment of $26 million in CDS linked to $71 billion of corporate debt, which proved to be a successful hedge as the pandemic unfolded [4][26] Group 2 - The article introduces the concept of "black swan" events, which are rare, impactful, and often unpredictable occurrences that can reshape industries and economies [5][11] - It outlines the characteristics of black swan events, including their rarity, significant impact, post-event explanations, and the potential for preemptive measures [8][10] - The article emphasizes that black swan events are not just negative occurrences; positive black swan events can also lead to unexpected opportunities [16][40] Group 3 - Ackman's strategy during the pandemic exemplifies the "barbell strategy" or "tail risk hedging," where a small investment is made to protect against extreme outcomes while maintaining a larger portfolio [24][26] - The article suggests that successful investors like Ackman are sensitive to tail risks and can capitalize on unexpected market movements [31][32] - It concludes that while luck plays a role in investment success, skilled decision-makers are better positioned to seize opportunities when they arise [32][33]