金十数据7月28日讯，美联储将于本周召开议息会议。道明证券美国利率策略师Molly Brooks预计，鲍 曼和沃勒两位理事将持不同意见。这可能会在利率市场引发一定的温和看涨反应。鉴于他们近期的言 论，市场对此不会感到太意外，但反对票依然意味着一种经过深思熟虑的行动。 道明证券：预计鲍曼和沃勒本周将投反对票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing a divergence in signals regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with prediction markets indicating a higher likelihood of his removal compared to the rates market, which remains more stable and focused on economic fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Signals - Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, have seen increased betting odds on Powell being dismissed by 2025 following Trump's public demand for his resignation [1][3]. - In contrast, the rates market, particularly the federal funds futures market, has reduced its expectations for interest rate cuts, now predicting a decrease of 43 basis points by year-end, down from 67 basis points at the end of June [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Data Influence - Stronger-than-expected employment data has led the rates market to reassess the likelihood of significant rate cuts, indicating that economic resilience and inflation risks are influencing market sentiment [4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's more moderate stance on the Federal Reserve has provided a stabilizing effect on the rates market, contrasting with Trump's more aggressive rhetoric [1][4]. Group 3: Divergence Analysis - The divergence between prediction markets and rates markets began in early July, with the rates market focusing more on economic signals rather than political noise [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while prediction markets may react to political statements, the rates market prioritizes economic fundamentals and policy signals, indicating a more cautious approach among traders [3][4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 242 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan after 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 2.30 basis points to 1.3880%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 0.20 basis points to 1.5100% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 2.2 basis points and 1.7 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw mixed movements with DR007 rising by 2.4 basis points [4] Group 2 - The money market rates on June 16 indicated a balanced to loose funding environment, with overnight rates around 1.50% and 7-day rates between 1.52% and 1.55% [9] - A total of 107 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on June 16, with an actual issuance volume of 193.28 billion yuan, reflecting active trading sentiment [10] - The Shanghai interest rate self-discipline mechanism meeting emphasized the importance of effective interest rate management and the need to enhance the pricing capabilities of member institutions [13]