Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, which was in line with market expectations. After the policy was implemented, the interest rate market showed a slight upward trend. The 10-year US Treasury bond rate is expected to rise slightly and stabilize within the new range of 4.06-4.16%. The market will then re - evaluate the next policy adjustment based on the core PCE at the end of September and the unemployment rate at the beginning of October [3][4]. - Global stock markets had different performances during the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high, while the Asia - Pacific stock markets followed the upward trend and the European markets were under pressure. Different types of commodities and foreign exchange also showed significant structural differentiation [5][21][23]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US this week was 231,000, lower than the expected 241,000 and the previous revised value of 264,000, indicating that the overall lay - off level in the US remains low [1][10]. - **Business Index**: In August, retail sales grew steadily, with the month - on - month growth of retail sales at 0.6% and core retail sales at 0.7%, both higher than expected. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels, the largest decline in nearly three months. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September reached its highest level since January, and most indicators pointed to economic recovery [2][11]. - **Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% to ease labor market pressure. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2025 [3][12]. 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - **US**: During the week from September 12 to September 19, 2025, US Treasury yields rose across the board. The yields of 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 1bp, 4bp, 5bp, 7bp, 8bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction had strong market demand [4][13][15]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese government bond yields rose, and German government bond yields reached a two - week high. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Japanese government bond rates increased by 2.3bp, 1.4bp, and 0.2bp respectively. The 10 - year German government bond rate increased by 3bp to 2.73% [20]. 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - **Equity**: Global stock markets entered the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high. The Nasdaq index rose 2.21%. The South Korean stock market rose for seven consecutive days, hitting a new annual high. However, the Russian stock market continued its downward trend, and the stock markets of China, the UK, and Germany remained relatively stable [21]. - **Commodities**: Black and chemical products had significant increases, while agricultural products and some industrial metals were under pressure. Precious metals remained relatively stable, and digital assets such as Bitcoin slightly declined [22]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the stability of the UK and Japan's policies led to intensified structural differentiation in the foreign exchange market. The Russian ruble strengthened significantly, the US dollar index slightly declined, and the euro and Swiss franc slightly appreciated. On the other hand, the British pound, Japanese yen, and South Korean won depreciated against the Chinese yuan [23]. 3. Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in bond interest rates, stock index returns, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [30][32][35][40][47][51].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to face dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller during the upcoming meeting, which may lead to a moderate bullish reaction in the interest rate market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Meeting** - The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week to discuss interest rates [1] - **Dissenting Votes** - Analysts from TD Securities predict that Bowman and Waller will vote against the majority, indicating a well-considered action despite the market's lack of surprise [1] - **Market Reaction** - The anticipated dissenting votes could trigger a mild bullish response in the interest rate market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing a divergence in signals regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with prediction markets indicating a higher likelihood of his removal compared to the rates market, which remains more stable and focused on economic fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Signals - Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, have seen increased betting odds on Powell being dismissed by 2025 following Trump's public demand for his resignation [1][3]. - In contrast, the rates market, particularly the federal funds futures market, has reduced its expectations for interest rate cuts, now predicting a decrease of 43 basis points by year-end, down from 67 basis points at the end of June [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Data Influence - Stronger-than-expected employment data has led the rates market to reassess the likelihood of significant rate cuts, indicating that economic resilience and inflation risks are influencing market sentiment [4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's more moderate stance on the Federal Reserve has provided a stabilizing effect on the rates market, contrasting with Trump's more aggressive rhetoric [1][4]. Group 3: Divergence Analysis - The divergence between prediction markets and rates markets began in early July, with the rates market focusing more on economic signals rather than political noise [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while prediction markets may react to political statements, the rates market prioritizes economic fundamentals and policy signals, indicating a more cautious approach among traders [3][4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 242 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan after 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 2.30 basis points to 1.3880%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 0.20 basis points to 1.5100% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 2.2 basis points and 1.7 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw mixed movements with DR007 rising by 2.4 basis points [4] Group 2 - The money market rates on June 16 indicated a balanced to loose funding environment, with overnight rates around 1.50% and 7-day rates between 1.52% and 1.55% [9] - A total of 107 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on June 16, with an actual issuance volume of 193.28 billion yuan, reflecting active trading sentiment [10] - The Shanghai interest rate self-discipline mechanism meeting emphasized the importance of effective interest rate management and the need to enhance the pricing capabilities of member institutions [13]