据大公国际及多家券商数据显示，2025年上半年，信用债发行数量达11,077只，发行规模突破10.16万亿元，同比分别增长6.75%和 4.39%。利率债供给亦显著加码，其中国债净融资规模接近3.4万亿元，约为2024年同期的两倍。 尤为亮眼的是，科技创新债券迎来爆发式增长。截至2025年底，全国科创债发行规模已突破1.7万亿元，成为科技企业直接融资的"超级 引擎"。多地政府出台专项支持政策，鼓励资金精准投向高端制造、人工智能、新能源等前沿领域。与此同时，首只科创债ETF成功上 市，极大提升了市场流动性和投资者参与度。 地方政府专项债同样表现强劲。2025年上半年新增专项债发行规模达21,607亿元，同比增长44.7%，重点投向市政基建、绿色低碳、现 代物流及先进制造业，有效拉动了有效投资和重大项目落地。 二级市场：告别单边牛市，步入高波动震荡格局 闪闻金融12月26日消息 2025年，中国债券市场在多重挑战与政策引导下走出一条"规模扩张"与"结构优化"并重的发展路径。一级市场发 行火热，二级市场震荡加剧，科技创新债券（科创债）异军突起，绿色金融持续深化，债市正从传统融资工具向服务国家战略、培育新 质生产力的 ...

投资者正以极度乐观的姿态步入新的一年，尽管心中仍对2026年可能面临的挑战存有顾虑，但当下的做多热情已占据主导地位。 据美国银行（Bank of America）最新的基金经理调查显示， 基金经理们的现金水平已大幅降至资产管理规模的3.3%，创下历史新低 。与此同时，投资者对经 济增长、股票和大宗商品的信心爆棚，这两类通常在经济扩张期表现良好的资产， 其合计敞口已达到2022年2月以来的最高水平 。 12月23日，彭博市场策略师Michael Msika发文称，这种近乎"满仓"的激进仓位反映出， 市场对进一步反弹的预期压倒了对高估值、人工智能（AI）巨额资本 支出以及盈利预期的担忧 。尽管科技股仍是主要驱动力，但 投资者在过去两个月已开始进行板块轮动，随着更有吸引力的投资机会出现，这种轮动正在拓宽 市场的上涨广度。 文章也指出，有策略师们警告称，在这股乐观情绪背后，经济前景并非没有阴云。 通胀的粘性、劳动力市场的动态变化以及美联储微妙的平衡术，仍是投资者 需要警惕的结构性风险。 极度乐观的仓位配置 根据美国银行的基金经理调查数据，随着新年的临近，仓位情况显得相当拥挤。投资者大幅削减现金持有量，转而押注于风险资 ...

投资者正以极度乐观的姿态步入新的一年，尽管心中仍对2026年可能面临的挑战存有顾虑，但当下的做 多热情已占据主导地位。 据美国银行（Bank of America）最新的基金经理调查显示，基金经理们的现金水平已大幅降至资产管理 规模的3.3%，创下历史新低。与此同时，投资者对经济增长、股票和大宗商品的信心爆棚，这两类通 常在经济扩张期表现良好的资产，其合计敞口已达到2022年2月以来的最高水平。 12月23日，彭博市场策略师Michael Msika发文称，这种近乎"满仓"的激进仓位反映出，市场对进一步反 弹的预期压倒了对高估值、人工智能（AI）巨额资本支出以及盈利预期的担忧。尽管科技股仍是主要 驱动力，但投资者在过去两个月已开始进行板块轮动，随着更有吸引力的投资机会出现，这种轮动正在 拓宽市场的上涨广度。 文章也指出，有策略师们警告称，在这股乐观情绪背后，经济前景并非没有阴云。通胀的粘性、劳动力 市场的动态变化以及美联储微妙的平衡术，仍是投资者需要警惕的结构性风险。 极度乐观的仓位配置 根据美国银行的基金经理调查数据，随着新年的临近，仓位情况显得相当拥挤。投资者大幅削减现金持 有量，转而押注于风险资产。现金 ...

随着科技巨头为AI基础设施大举发债，投资者对潜在债务风险的担忧日益加剧。 根据数据清算机构DTCC的最新数据，自今年9月初以来，与少数几家美国科技集团挂钩的信用违约互 换（CDS）交易量已飙升90%。CDS是一种类似保险的金融工具，可以在公司发生违约时为投资者提供 保护。 这股对冲热潮的出现，正值华尔街对科技股的抛售因甲骨文和博通等公司业绩不及投资者高预期而再度 加剧。 而投资者的不安情绪，源于科技公司为建设AI基础设施而掀起的一股发债狂潮。这些需要投入巨额资 金的项目可能需要数年时间才能产生回报，其不确定性正促使投资者重新评估相关公司的信用风险，并 积极寻求保护性策略。 AI融资转向，信贷市场成新战场 今年年初，对于高评级的美国科技公司而言，信用风险几乎是一个不存在的话题。当时，这些公司主要 依靠其庞大的现金储备和强劲的盈利能力来资助AI支出。然而，随着成本不断攀升，情况发生了变 化。 据统计，今年秋季，Meta、亚马逊、Alphabet和甲骨文四家公司通过发行债券合计融资高达880亿美 元，专门用于AI项目。摩根大通预测，到2030年，投资级公司为AI项目融资的规模可能达到1.5万亿美 元。这种从内部融资 ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market continues its rebound, supported by a series of economic data that maintain high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [1][9] - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum due to a weak labor market and rising living costs [3][12] - The core PCE price index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% year-on-year, the highest since April 2024, reflecting inflationary pressures [3][12] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in over three years, alleviating concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [3][12] - The ADP employment report showed the largest decline in private sector employment in two and a half years, indicating mixed signals in the job market [3][12] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer pessimism has slightly eased, attributed to improved expectations for the economic outlook, although evaluations of the durable goods purchasing environment remain at historical lows [4][13] - Actual disposable income is expected to rebound quickly, potentially driving consumer spending growth of over 2% in 2026 [4][13] Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting [5][13] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the weak labor market and moderate inflation pressures may reinforce the rationale for a rate cut [5][14] Market Volatility - The stock market indices recorded gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 0.9%, and S&P 500 up 0.3%, as expectations for a rate cut grew [6][15] - The energy and technology sectors led the gains, while utilities and healthcare sectors experienced declines [6][15] Oracle's Earnings Impact - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is seen as a potential catalyst for market sentiment, particularly in the AI sector, amid concerns over excessive investment and rising debt levels [8][17] - The performance of Oracle could either alleviate or exacerbate investor concerns regarding AI spending, influencing overall market sentiment [8][17]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that Oracle's debt risk metrics reached a three-year high in November, raising concerns about its large-scale AI spending plans [1] - Analysts suggest that Oracle's five-year credit default swaps (CDS) may exceed 150 basis points in the short term, potentially approaching 200 basis points if communication regarding its financing strategy remains limited [1] - There is a warning that as market concerns grow over Oracle's excessive debt for AI financing, banks and investors are intensifying hedging operations, with the five-year CDS prices possibly surpassing the record high of 198 basis points set in 2008 [1] Group 2 - Oracle is one of the companies participating in the AI spending race and has quickly become a barometer for AI risk in the credit market [1] - In September, Oracle issued $18 billion in U.S. investment-grade bonds, and in early November, a consortium of about 20 banks arranged approximately $18 billion in project financing loans for a data center park in New Mexico, with Oracle as the tenant [1] - Additionally, banks provided another $38 billion loan package to fund the construction of data centers in Texas and Wisconsin developed by Vantage Data Centers [1][2]

2025.11.27 本文字数：1347，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 钱童心 几个月前，当甲骨文与OpenAI公司签下千亿美元"天价"订单后，助推了该公司股价出现一波大幅上 涨，甲骨文市值一度逼近万亿美元。不过，近一个月来，由于市场担忧AI泡沫破裂，甲骨文的股价也 遭遇突然"失速"。 11月26日美股收盘，甲骨文股价反弹，上涨超过4%，不过盘后股价下跌超过2%。截至当天，甲骨文近 一个月股价下跌接近28%，最新市值已跌破6000亿美元，较此前的市值顶峰已蒸发约3000亿美元——这 相当于一家通用汽车或两家卡夫亨氏的市值。 摩根士丹利分析师认为，参与这些与甲骨文公司相关的建设贷款的贷款机构可能是近期甲骨文CDS交易 量激增的关键推动因素，而且这一趋势可能会持续下去。 甲骨文此前承诺它将在超大规模数据中心提供商中提供最低的前期成本和最快的盈利路径，因为它只是 数据中心的租户而非所有者。上个月，甲骨文在AI World大会上预计，到2030财年，该公司的云基础设 施收入将增长至1660亿美元，占2250亿美元总销售额的约75%。 甲骨文首席财务官Doug Kehring在投资人会上回应了关于AI泡沫的质疑 ...

Core Insights - Oracle's stock price experienced a significant drop of nearly 28% over the past month, with its market value falling below $600 billion, losing approximately $300 billion from its peak [3][4] - Concerns regarding Oracle's debt levels have intensified, with Morgan Stanley reporting that the company's debt risk indicators reached a three-year high in November [3][4] - The rising costs of credit default swaps (CDS) for Oracle indicate increasing market skepticism about the company's financial health and its aggressive AI investments [5][6] Debt and Financial Risks - Oracle's aggressive borrowing for AI projects has raised alarms among investors, leading to increased hedging activities in the market [4][5] - The cost of Oracle's five-year CDS has surged to 1.25 percentage points, more than tripling in recent months, with potential to reach 1.5 to 2 percentage points if communication regarding financing strategies remains limited [5][6] - The volume of Oracle's CDS trading has skyrocketed to approximately $5 billion over seven weeks, compared to just over $200 million in the same period last year [5][6] AI Investment and Market Position - Oracle is heavily involved in the AI investment race, having borrowed $18 billion in the high-grade bond market and secured another $18 billion in project financing for a data center in New Mexico [5][6] - The company aims to provide the lowest upfront costs and fastest profitability paths in the data center market, positioning itself as a tenant rather than an owner [6] - Oracle's CFO emphasized that the company is focused on opportunities with clear market profit returns, countering speculation about pursuing revenue for its own sake [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that Oracle Corporation's debt risk indicator reached a three-year high in November, and unless the company alleviates investor concerns regarding its substantial AI expenditures, the situation is expected to worsen by 2026 [1] Group 1: Debt and Credit Risk - The cost of default insurance for Oracle's debt over the next five years rose to 1.25 percentage points, reflecting growing concerns among banks and investors about the company's borrowing to fund its AI ambitions [1] - Analysts warn that the price of five-year credit default swaps (CDS) could exceed 1.5 percentage points in the short term and may approach 2 percentage points if communication regarding its financing strategy remains limited as the new year progresses [1] - The historical high for Oracle's CDS was 1.98 percentage points in 2008, indicating significant market anxiety [1] Group 2: Financing and Investment Activities - Oracle raised $18 billion in the U.S. high-grade bond market in September and secured another $18 billion in project financing loans for a data center park in New Mexico, where Oracle will be a tenant [2] - Banks are also providing an additional $38 billion loan package to support the development of data centers by Vantage Data Centers in Texas and Wisconsin, which is likely driving the recent surge in Oracle's CDS trading volume [2] - Analysts note that the construction loans related to Oracle are becoming increasingly important as a hedge against credit risk [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The performance of Oracle's CDS has lagged behind the broader investment-grade CDX index, and the company's bonds have underperformed the Bloomberg high-grade bond index, reflecting growing concerns [4] - These worries have begun to impact Oracle's stock price, potentially prompting management to announce a financing plan during the upcoming earnings call, including details on the "Star Gate" project, data centers, and capital expenditures [4] - Analysts previously recommended a "basis trade" strategy for purchasing Oracle bonds and CDS but now suggest that directly buying CDS is a more straightforward trading strategy [4]

National Developments - All offshore wind turbines for China's farthest offshore wind power project have been installed [1] - State Power Investment Corporation has completed the major asset restructuring and share issuance for Yuanda Environmental Protection [1] Local Developments - Shenzhen Futian supports the construction of solar energy storage and charging projects with subsidies up to 5 million [1] - Shandong Dongying has received subsidies for a 1.4GW offshore wind power project [1] International Developments - TotalEnergies will acquire part of EPH's power generation facilities for €5.1 billion [1] - Saudi Arabia's 2GW photovoltaic project has completed the installation of all solar modules [1] Economic Insights - The current decline in the AI sector is evident, with major companies like Meta and Oracle showing signs of weakness, indicating a rejection of the "wheel of fortune" model driven by debt expansion [2] - The tightening of the funding chain due to high interest rates from the Federal Reserve will first impact the cash-burning data centers in the AI industry, leading to soaring CDS premiums and heightened concerns over debt default risks [2] - The total market capitalization of the US stock market is $68 trillion, with the AI sector accounting for nearly $30 trillion, making it vulnerable to systemic risks [2] - The modern economy acts as a financial accelerator, and a shift from positive to negative feedback can lead to rapid deterioration [2] - The "All in AI" strategy faces three critical conflicts: financial fragility of the "wheel of fortune" model, the contradiction between high computing power demand and aging energy infrastructure, and the dual pressure from income deflation due to smart replacements and soaring financial costs from computing iterations [2] Strategic Outlook - For Eastern countries, the best strategy is to observe the global landscape with caution, as the capital storm originating from the West is likely to spill over [3] - Any misstep in the West's approach to AI, viewed as a matter of national survival, could present strategic opportunities for the East and lay the foundation for a new round of national competition [3]