Report Overview - Report Title: "Reserve Demand Supports, Urea Futures Prices Show Strong Resistance to Decline - Weekly Urea Market Analysis" [1] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Chang Xuemei, Chemical Researcher at Haizheng Futures Research Institute [28] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand data of urea has improved recently, and the price is relatively firm. The short - term price is supported by the improvement of industrial and agricultural demand and optimistic expectations for Indian tenders and exports. However, the high daily production may limit the price rebound space, and the price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the future [6]. - The UR01&05 spread continues to fluctuate and adjust, and the impact of the main contract shift on the spread needs further attention [6]. - The urea industry inventory pressure has been further relieved, but the absolute inventory is still large and needs further digestion [23]. - The urea industry profit continues to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still loose, so the profit may continue to be weakly adjusted [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the main 01 contract of urea fluctuated upward, showing strong resistance to decline. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1665 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of urea in various regions increased slightly. Northeast procurement improved the domestic urea trading. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong was about 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis was strongly volatile. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 25 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 15 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening compared with the previous period [8]. - **Spread**: As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 70 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening with relatively limited volatility [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been stable. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 7183, mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [10]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Maintenance**: This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 20.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the coal - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 16.27 million tons, a decrease of 21.96 million tons compared with the previous period; the gas - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 4.67 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period [13]. - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the domestic urea operating rate was about 83.91%, a slight decrease of about 0.17% compared with the previous period. The coal - based production capacity utilization rate of urea production enterprises was about 87.23%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period; the gas - based production capacity utilization rate was about 72.55%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous period [15]. - **Production**: This week, the urea production was about 142.04 million tons, an increase of about 4.35 million tons compared with last week. The coal - based weekly urea production was about 114.31 million tons, an increase of about 4.43 million tons from the previous period; the gas - based weekly urea production was about 27.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 20, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 34.61%, an increase of 4.29% compared with last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was about 65.48 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.23%. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong continued to be compressed [18]. - **Melamine**: As of November 20, the domestic melamine enterprise operating rate was about 62.2%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine production was about 3.2 million tons, continuing to rise compared with last week. The short - term increase in operating rate is expected to slow down [20]. 3.4 Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the total domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 143.72 million tons, a decrease of about 4.64 million tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 3.13%. The urea port sample inventory was about 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 21.95%. The current pre - sales days were about 7.12 days, a decrease of about 0.59 days compared with the previous period [22][23]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the fixed - bed process profit was about - 307 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the coal - water slurry profit was about 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with last week; the natural gas profit was about - 288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [26].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a continued downward trend in prices due to an oversupply situation, with current spot prices nearing historical lows, and this trend is expected to persist [1][6]. Supply Dynamics - Urea production capacity is entering a new growth cycle, with an expected increase of over 7 million tons by 2025, leading to an average daily production increase of 15,000 to 20,000 tons year-on-year, currently at around 200,000 tons, which is a five-year high [2]. - Urea inventories are at elevated levels, with enterprise stocks around 1.2 million tons, also a five-year high, and are expected to continue accumulating due to the off-season for agricultural demand [2]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is weakening as the autumn fertilizer application period concludes, with lower urea usage due to a focus on high-phosphorus fertilizers and non-concentrated purchasing [3]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers has decreased from 42% to 38%, with expectations of continued decline, and finished product inventories are high at around 800,000 tons, marking a five-year peak [3]. - The production rate for melamine has significantly dropped from 72% to 46%, limiting its support for urea demand [5]. Cost Factors - The current coal market remains strong, with prices around 700 RMB per ton for 5500 kcal coal, providing some cost support for urea production, which has a complete cost range of 1,500 to 1,550 RMB per ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend this week. With the expected resumption of production of overhauled devices of multiple urea enterprises in late September, the daily urea production is expected to return to a high - level in late September. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer production nears its end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually declined, and the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level year - on - year. In the short term, due to the increase in supply pressure and weak demand, the urea inventory has been continuously accumulating. With uncertainties in Indian tenders and export expectations, the futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders, macro - impacts, and export changes. For the UR2601 contract, pay attention to the support level performance around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Summary - **Supply**: The daily urea production has significantly rebounded, with the weekly urea output at 1401500 tons (+5.38%), including 1108600 tons of coal - based urea and 292900 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily output of 200000 tons. Multiple enterprises are scheduled for maintenance in October [4][19][23]. - **Demand**: The support from autumn fertilizer is limited. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 35.27% (-3.36%), and the finished product inventory is 791700 tons (a decrease of 8100 tons compared to the previous period). The operating rate of melamine is 60.58% (+3.80%). Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders [4][32]. - **Inventory**: Upstream urea enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The factory inventory is 1218200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52900 tons. The port inventory is 496300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 19700 tons). The mainstream pre - sale days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.53 days) [4][25][29]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices continue to be strong, and urea profits have decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price showed a weak trend this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has been adjusted downward [10]. - **Production and Maintenance**: The weekly urea output has increased, and multiple enterprises have planned maintenance in October [19][23]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices continue to be strong [34]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [43].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, be cautious about short - selling near - month contracts. Although the demand is in a phased weakening, the agricultural demand for fertilizers is not over yet, and there is still some purchasing demand support in the future. - In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship will gradually become looser. After the agricultural demand ends, the urea demand will seasonally weaken, the industrial demand cannot support alone, and there is no sign of export liberalization, so there is significant downward pressure on urea [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, the domestic urea market showed a volatile trend of first decline and then rise, with the overall price center shifting down. After the Qingming Festival, affected by factors such as insufficient downstream demand, restricted logistics, and the US tariff increase policy, the market was weak at first. Then, as production enterprises cut prices to receive orders, the market replenishment demand was released, and the market improved in the second half of the week. - On April 11, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions declined. For example, the mainstream price in Henan was 1910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - International urea prices declined. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East was 387 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. The export is still under control, and the possibility of liberalization is low [6][8]. 3.2 Supply Side - The domestic urea plant capacity utilization rate remained high, with an overall high supply pressure. Last week, the domestic urea plant capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the previous period, and 1.62 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The daily average output was 19.44 tons, a 0.6% increase compared with the previous period and a 5.88% increase compared with the same period last year. - Among different processes, the capacity utilization rate of natural gas plants increased, while that of coal - based plants decreased. There were many changes in coal - head plants during the statistical period. This week, some previously shut - down plants are planned to restart, so the supply side still has pressure [9][10]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is in a phased window period. Spring fertilizers are coming to an end, and the connection with summer fertilizers is poor. The demand for corn top - dressing in North China is delayed, and the fertilization progress in the South is behind schedule. The demand for compound fertilizers is also weakening. - On April 11, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 48.89%, a 3.5 - percentage - point decrease compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample enterprises increased. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants increased, and the weekly output increased significantly. However, the downstream demand for raw materials is weakening [12][13][15]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea manufacturers increased. Last week, the inventory was 83.37 tons, a 10.54% increase compared with the previous period and 31.44% higher than the same period last year. With the digestion of macro - negative sentiment, downstream replenishment may drive the enterprise inventory down. - The port inventory remained stable at 11.9 tons, with no change compared with the previous period and a decrease of 7.6 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at the current level in the short term [16][19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As the urea price declined, the profits of various production methods shrank or the losses widened. The industry still has a profit margin overall. Fixed - bed process theory profit was - 114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; water - coal - slurry process theory profit was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; natural - gas - making process theory profit was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - Last week, coal prices were basically stable. The supply - side production was stable, but the downstream demand was weak. The coal price rebounded slightly but the supply - demand situation of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, and the rebound range was limited [20][21].