Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The urea market is expected to operate within a range, with valuation being more important than drivers. The domestic fundamental pressure is high, but the downward driving force is weakened by policy regulation. In November, with mid - stream replenishment and the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, spot trading has continuously improved, and the inventory accumulation of upstream enterprises is expected to slow down significantly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton (support) and 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton (pressure) [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - **Urea Basis**: Multiple charts show the basis data of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping) from 2019 - 2025 [5][6][7][8]. - **Urea Monthly Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: Charts present the monthly spread data of 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 from 2019 - 2025, and the warehouse receipt quantity data from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11][13]. - **Urea Domestic Spot Price**: Show the domestic spot price trends of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Hebei, Dongguang, Shandong) from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17][18]. - **Urea International Spot Price**: Display the international spot price trends of different regions (Baltic Sea, China, Brazil, Middle East) from 2018 - 2025 [19][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 7,160,000 tons. Many enterprises have new production capacity or capacity replacement plans [23]. - **Production Enterprises' Maintenance Plan**: List the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates, loss of production, and types of maintenance (normal, policy - related, fault, loss - cost) [25]. - **Output**: Currently, the production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. The daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented in the charts [26][27]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The cost calculations of Shanxi fixed - bed factories and the complete cost trends of urea in different production processes (entrained - flow bed, fixed - bed, natural gas) from 2018 - 2025 are provided [29][30][31][33]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The cash - flow profit of urea fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 are shown in the charts [34][35][37][38][39]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (estimated) are provided, along with charts showing the export profit and export volume [40][41][42]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn [47][48][50]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamental situation includes production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate, with relevant data from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - **Melamine**: The fundamental situation of melamine includes production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate, with relevant data from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][59]. - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for wood - based panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but wood - product exports are resilient. Data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real - estate construction and completion areas are provided [60][61]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons (5.99% MoM) from the previous week. Some provinces' inventories decreased, while others increased [2][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025 (week 46), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons (3.8% MoM). Under the phased relaxation of export policies, the enthusiasm for cargo collection at ports has increased [2][66]. 3.5 International Urea - **International Urea Price**: Multiple charts show the FOB prices of large - granular urea in different regions (China, Baltic Sea, Middle East) and the CFR price in Brazil from 2018 - 2025 [70][71][72][73].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been continuously falling due to weak domestic demand during the agricultural off - season and lower - than - expected participation in Indian tenders and tender prices, which has weakened speculative sentiment. - Supply pressure has slightly eased as daily urea production has declined, but it remains at a high level compared to the same period. In mid - to - late September, the restart of previously overhauled plants may push daily production back to a high level. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and the main growth points in the future are the phased procurement demand for autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserves by storage enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may continue to rise, but insufficient downstream procurement may limit their production enthusiasm. The melamine industry has many restarted plants, but terminal demand is still weak. Export performance is below expectations, and export disruptions will weaken after the export window closes. - Overall, the urea supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and prices remain under pressure. However, the current price is low, and with the support of autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserve demand, the room for further decline may be limited [2][24][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Urea futures broke through the previous oscillation range last week, with the urea 2601 contract closing at 1,663 yuan/ton on September 12, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton or 3.67% from the end of August. The main reasons are weak demand during the agricultural off - season in mid - to - early September, lower - than - expected Indian tenders, and production restrictions of compound fertilizer plants around the military parade. - The spot market is also weak. On September 12, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions decreased compared to the end of August, with downstream procurement being cautious, poor new order transactions, and slower shipment speeds. - International urea prices have also fallen. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East decreased by 55 US dollars/ton from the end of August, and the decrease in the lowest bid in the Indian NFL tender on September 2 has put downward pressure on international prices [6][9]. 3.2 Supply Side - Recently, the number of overhauled urea plants in China has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Although the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons/day, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. On September 12, the national urea plant capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 185,600 tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of August. - By process, the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea plants was 81.47%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 146,100 tons, a decrease of 651,300 tons from the end of August. The capacity utilization rate of natural - gas - based urea plants was 72.34%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 39,500 tons, a decrease of 62,900 tons from the end of August. - Most of the changed plants during the statistical period were coal - based plants. Some plants in Henan and Shanxi started overhauls in early September, and some have since resumed. After mid - September, previously overhauled plants such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Jinfeng will also resume, and it is expected that the daily output will rise above 190,000 tons, with overall supply remaining relatively abundant [10][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is progressing slowly. In mid - to - early September, it is in the agricultural off - season, and downstream dealers are cautious in procurement, with only small - scale low - price stockpiling. The next stage of agricultural demand is the autumn sowing base fertilizer for wheat from late September to mid - October, but the start is slow. - In terms of industrial demand, after the military parade, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but is still at a low level compared to the same period. On September 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the end of August, and the inventory of compound fertilizer manufacturers was 826,200 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the end of August. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants is 55.38%, a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the end of August, and the output is 27,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the end of August. Terminal demand is weak, and the support for the urea market is limited. - On September 2, the Indian NFL urea import tender had a planned tender volume of 2 million tons, with a final winning bid volume of about 2.03 million tons and a winning bid price of about 460 US dollars/ton CFR, a significant drop of about 70 US dollars/ton from the August tender. After September, the domestic autumn fertilizer use and off - season reserves will start, and the export window may gradually close [13][14][16][18]. 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the in - plant inventory of urea production enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the end of August and an increase of 382,800 tons year - on - year, with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks. The port inventory was 549,400 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons from the end of August but an increase of 336,400 tons year - on - year. Although daily production has declined and some manufacturers have export orders, the weak terminal demand makes it difficult to change the situation of inventory accumulation, and price cuts to attract orders have limited effects [19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As urea prices fall, the profits of different production methods have shrunk or losses have widened. The production profit of the coal - water slurry gasification method is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of the fixed - bed method is - 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; and the production profit of the natural - gas method is - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - Last week, domestic coal prices stopped falling, and some coal prices rebounded. The port market atmosphere improved, but the actual transaction volume was limited. The coal supply has increased as previously restricted mines have resumed production, and the power plant's coal consumption has decreased seasonally after the "peak summer" period. With sufficient inventory, the coal price lacks the impetus for continuous rise [22].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The supply and demand of urea are both weak. The market is affected by export quota news and coal cost rebound, showing a short - term upward trend, but operations require caution [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed low on July 4, 2025, with strong intraday consolidation. The market transaction was weakly stable, and downstream was not enthusiastic about taking orders after the price increase. Supply decreased due to temporary production capacity maintenance, with daily output below 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand will end next week, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer factories is mainly for rigid needs. Overall, demand is entering a weak period [1] Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,740 yuan/ton, closed at 1,735 yuan/ton, with a gain of +0.12%. The trading volume was 210,822 lots (-11,370 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 194 lots and short positions decreased by 3,259 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot market transaction was weakly stable, and downstream was not enthusiastic about taking orders after the price increase. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mainly in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On July 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 500, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis - The spot market's mainstream quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 75 yuan/ton (+12 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - On July 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 83.31% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the urea industry will see both supply and demand remain strong, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Supply will be abundant, and demand will have certain support in the first half - month but may slow down in the second half - month. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, with a bottom support [2][3][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In May, the domestic urea supply was abundant, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. The price was firm in the first half - month due to export news and demand stimulation, and then declined as it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals [7][9]. - On the demand side, speculative demand was concentrated in the first half - month, and then demand from compound fertilizer plants and agricultural sectors weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely, and the spot price declined. By the end of May, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 910,000 tons, a 16.40% increase from the previous week [13][15]. Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In May, the domestic urea daily output reached a historical high of 206,000 tons, with an average daily output of 202,200 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to April [18]. - In 2025, the urea industry's new production capacity is 4 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.87%. In June, a new urea device will be added [21][22]. - In June, the raw coal price is expected to stabilize. The supply is relatively abundant, the power plant inventory is high, and the chemical coal demand is fair [26][28]. - In June, the cash - flow profit of domestic urea enterprises will remain fair. With the stable coal price, the bottom of the urea ex - factory price is supported [30]. - In June, the domestic urea output will continue to rise, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. Six issues need to be focused on, such as the compound fertilizer plant's resumption of high - level operation, Indian tender dynamics, inventory changes, policy influence, etc. [38][41]. - The urea enterprise inventory first increased and then decreased. As of May 21, 2025, the total inventory was 917,400 tons, an increase from the previous week [42]. Demand - In June, domestic rigid demand will still be released to some extent. The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate in the Central Plains will seasonally increase, and the export will also support the price. However, the demand from melamine and plywood factories is general. In late June, the overall demand will enter a weak period [3][44]. - The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate is expected to be high in the first half of June and low in the second half. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production cycle is from November to May - June, and the high - phosphate fertilizer is for autumn crops [46]. - In June, the operating rates of melamine and plywood factories will further decline. The melamine market price may remain stable with a downward trend in the short term [56][61]. - Export policy has been relaxed. With a large price difference between domestic and international markets, exports will support the domestic price. Attention should be paid to international price trends and domestic export volumes [67][70]. - The price - comparison advantage of urea has increased, and the direct agricultural application volume is expected to rise [77]. - The direct agricultural application volume of urea has increased. In 2025, the national agricultural demand will continue to increase steadily, with increased demand for urea from wheat and corn, and in regions like Xinjiang and Northeast China [80][86]. May Market Outlook - Supply: In June, the urea industry profit will remain stable, the output will continue to rise, and the daily output is expected to remain above 200,000 tons [87]. - Demand: In June, rigid demand will be released, the compound fertilizer plant's operating rate will increase seasonally, and exports will support the price. However, in late June, the demand will weaken. Two issues need to be focused on regarding export policies [88]. - Market outlook: In June, new devices will continue to be put into production. In the first half - month, demand will support the price, and exports will increase. In late June, the price is expected to decline, but there is bottom support. The futures price of 09 contract is expected to rise first and then fall. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [89][90][91]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: There is certain bottom support [4]. - Arbitrage: Build long positions in the 9 - 1 spread at low prices [4]. - Options: Wait for the futures price to fall and sell the put option 2509 - P - 1720 [4].