Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a coal daily report dated November 7, 2025, focusing on the coal market [1] Group 2: Market Review - On November 7, port market quotes rose. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2] Group 3: Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a 9.75% year - on - year decrease and a 9.27% decrease from September. From January to October 2025, China imported 38762.30 million tons of coal, a 11% year - on - year decrease [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Restrictions on production still affected the market. Coal mine opening rates in major production areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 7, the opening rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.8 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened [4] - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the good price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market trading atmosphere improved [4] - Demand: Some regions entered the coal - consuming peak season, and the power load showed an obvious upward trend. Most power plants operated at about 70% load, and the available days of power plant inventory remained at a high level. Power plants mainly fulfilled long - term contracts and made only a small amount of necessary purchases in the market [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 20. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 7, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 22.37 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory reduction, while inland power plants had neutral inventory [4] - Forecast: It is expected that coal prices will rise in the short term as the production in major coal - producing areas is low, power plant inventory is decreasing, import profits are available, and both port inflow and outflow are low [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to rise in the short - term as the coal production in major producing areas recovers, power plant inventories are being depleted, import profits are available, and power plants only maintain necessary purchases. Also, port prices have been rising, and pit - mouth prices are firm [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On October 20, the port thermal coal market continued to rise strongly. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 765 - 775 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 670 - 685 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 575 - 585 yuan/ton in the market. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [3]. Important News - In September, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and the decline was 1.4 percentage points narrower than that in August. From January to September, the output was 3.57 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of rainfall in the northwest has subsided, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have increased. As of October 20, the operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average output of the two cities was over 4 million tons, but the overall domestic supply tightened [5]. - **Import**: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to pick up this week. Coastal power plants were more active in inquiring about goods, and the market transaction atmosphere improved significantly [5]. - **Demand**: The southern region has entered the cooling mode, and the north has fully entered the heating season. The coal - using pressure of thermal enterprises and power plants has increased. Power plants still give priority to fulfilling long - term contract coal and are cautious about purchasing market coal [5]. - **Inventory**: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line is 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages of the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 20. Port inventory is generally stable. As of October 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 22.31 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plant daily consumption has decreased seasonally, and inventory is stable, while inland power plant inventory is still high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that coal prices will generally decline in the short term, as the supply is abundant with increased production from major coal - producing areas, while demand remains weak with seasonal decline in power plant consumption and stable inventory levels [5]. 3. Key Points by Section Market Review - On September 2nd, the port market continued to operate weakly, with prices of coal of various calorific values generally falling. For example, the market price of 5500 - kcal coal at ports was 685 - 695 yuan/ton, and different regions had different price ranges for coal of various calorific values [3]. Important News - From January to July, the total social electricity consumption in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid reached 1003.9 billion kWh, exceeding one trillion kWh one month earlier than last year, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: After the rainfall in the northwest region subsided, the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased. As of September 1st, the operating rate of coal mines in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, but the overall domestic supply tightened [5]. - **Import**: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market transaction atmosphere improved [5]. - **Demand**: Power plants operated stably, with the unit load rate fluctuating around 70%. Power plant coal inventories were at a medium - to - high level. Power plants prioritized fulfilling long - term contracts, and only purchased market coal to fill rigid gaps. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the restart of methanol and urea plants kept their operating rates high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair [5]. - **Inventory**: The rainfall in the northwest affected coal transportation. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was less than 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 15. With high outbound volume, port inventories continued to decline. As of September 2nd, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports dropped to 20.4 million tons, reaching a low level in the same period over the years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the urea industry will see both supply and demand remain strong, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Supply will be abundant, and demand will have certain support in the first half - month but may slow down in the second half - month. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, with a bottom support [2][3][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In May, the domestic urea supply was abundant, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. The price was firm in the first half - month due to export news and demand stimulation, and then declined as it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals [7][9]. - On the demand side, speculative demand was concentrated in the first half - month, and then demand from compound fertilizer plants and agricultural sectors weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely, and the spot price declined. By the end of May, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 910,000 tons, a 16.40% increase from the previous week [13][15]. Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In May, the domestic urea daily output reached a historical high of 206,000 tons, with an average daily output of 202,200 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to April [18]. - In 2025, the urea industry's new production capacity is 4 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.87%. In June, a new urea device will be added [21][22]. - In June, the raw coal price is expected to stabilize. The supply is relatively abundant, the power plant inventory is high, and the chemical coal demand is fair [26][28]. - In June, the cash - flow profit of domestic urea enterprises will remain fair. With the stable coal price, the bottom of the urea ex - factory price is supported [30]. - In June, the domestic urea output will continue to rise, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. Six issues need to be focused on, such as the compound fertilizer plant's resumption of high - level operation, Indian tender dynamics, inventory changes, policy influence, etc. [38][41]. - The urea enterprise inventory first increased and then decreased. As of May 21, 2025, the total inventory was 917,400 tons, an increase from the previous week [42]. Demand - In June, domestic rigid demand will still be released to some extent. The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate in the Central Plains will seasonally increase, and the export will also support the price. However, the demand from melamine and plywood factories is general. In late June, the overall demand will enter a weak period [3][44]. - The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate is expected to be high in the first half of June and low in the second half. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production cycle is from November to May - June, and the high - phosphate fertilizer is for autumn crops [46]. - In June, the operating rates of melamine and plywood factories will further decline. The melamine market price may remain stable with a downward trend in the short term [56][61]. - Export policy has been relaxed. With a large price difference between domestic and international markets, exports will support the domestic price. Attention should be paid to international price trends and domestic export volumes [67][70]. - The price - comparison advantage of urea has increased, and the direct agricultural application volume is expected to rise [77]. - The direct agricultural application volume of urea has increased. In 2025, the national agricultural demand will continue to increase steadily, with increased demand for urea from wheat and corn, and in regions like Xinjiang and Northeast China [80][86]. May Market Outlook - Supply: In June, the urea industry profit will remain stable, the output will continue to rise, and the daily output is expected to remain above 200,000 tons [87]. - Demand: In June, rigid demand will be released, the compound fertilizer plant's operating rate will increase seasonally, and exports will support the price. However, in late June, the demand will weaken. Two issues need to be focused on regarding export policies [88]. - Market outlook: In June, new devices will continue to be put into production. In the first half - month, demand will support the price, and exports will increase. In late June, the price is expected to decline, but there is bottom support. The futures price of 09 contract is expected to rise first and then fall. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [89][90][91]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: There is certain bottom support [4]. - Arbitrage: Build long positions in the 9 - 1 spread at low prices [4]. - Options: Wait for the futures price to fall and sell the put option 2509 - P - 1720 [4].