Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend. The current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The order demand has improved, and the agricultural reserve demand has increased. The inventory is in a destocking state, but the domestic market is still in a state of oversupply [4]. 3. Detailed Summaries Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are high year - on - year. With the return from maintenance, the operating rate is expected to rise. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the destocking pattern is obvious. Order demand has improved significantly compared with the previous period, agricultural reserve demand has increased, and industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 41, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.3%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 115.7 million tons (-3.4), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to be volatile and strong. The operating rate is expected to continue to rise, order demand has improved, reserve demand has increased, and inventory is destocking. It is expected that UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Inventory destocking and improved orders [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1760 (+20), Shandong spot is 1760 (+20), Henan spot is 1760 (0), and FOB China is 2807 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1801 (-13), the basis is - 41 (+33), UR01 is 1716 (-3), UR05 is 1801 (-13), and UR09 is 1772 (-12) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 13355 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 115.7 million tons (-3.4), UR manufacturer inventory is 102.2 million tons, and UR port inventory is 13.5 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level year-on-year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise further. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Order demand has improved significantly compared to the previous period, and agricultural reserve demand has increased. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, with the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine being neutral. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports, and the recent demand for low-cost replenishment is relatively concentrated. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview 3.1.1 Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year-on-year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de-stocking pattern is obvious. Order demand has improved significantly, agricultural reserve demand has increased, industrial demand is mainly based on needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are neutral. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports, and the recent demand for low-cost replenishment is relatively concentrated. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. 3.1.2 Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -26, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (-34,000 tons), indicating a neutral situation [4]. 3.1.4 Futures Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. 3.1.6 Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating rate is expected to continue to rise, order demand has improved, reserve demand has increased, and the inventory is de-stocking. The UR is expected to fluctuate strongly today [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Urea Market 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Inventory de-stocking and improved orders [5]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. 3.2.3 Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Conditions - The spot price of the delivery product is 1750, with no change; the price of the Shandong spot is 1750, down 10; the price of the Henan spot is 1750, with no change; the FOB China price is 2793. The price of the UR05 contract is 1777, up 1; the price of the UR01 contract is 1690, up 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1754, down 2. The basis of the UR05 contract is -27, down 1. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons, down 34,000 tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.022 million tons, up 3,000 tons; the UR port inventory is 135,000 tons, down 37,000 tons [6]. 3.4 Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. Overall, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is short - term weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Domestic market is oversupplied, and the spot price of delivery product is 1630 (+20), with neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 33, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.0%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 156.6 million tons (-9.2), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: Considering the moderately weak industrial demand, weak agricultural demand, improved export situation, and obvious domestic oversupply, the UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes over the years [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1630 (+20), Henan spot price is 1630 (0), and FOB China price is 2844 [6]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the 01 contract is 1663 (+1), UR05 is 1735 (-1), and UR09 is 1744 (-3). The basis of the 01 contract is - 33 (+19) [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 156.6 million tons (-9.2), UR manufacturer inventory is 148.4 million tons, and UR port inventory is 8.2 million tons [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The improvement of export situation [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic market oversupply and new capacity commissioning [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the UR (urea) contract will show a volatile trend today. The industrial demand for urea is neutral, while the agricultural demand is on the rise. International urea prices are strong, and the export expectations have been realized, which boosts the market sentiment. However, the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. On the demand side, agricultural demand has increased due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and export expectations are gradually being realized, which boosts the market sentiment. The domestic urea market remains in an oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Expectation**: Considering the industrial demand being neutral, agricultural demand rising, international urea prices being strong, and export expectations being realized, which boosts the market sentiment, but with the obvious domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: The bullish factors include strong international prices and rising agricultural demand. The bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (-10), Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), Henan spot is 1610 (0), and FOB China is 2740 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1655 (15), the basis is -55 (-25), UR01 is 1655 (15), UR05 is 1728 (11), and UR09 is 1748 (10) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (146), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (0), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (0), and UR port inventory is 97,000 tons (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] |

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Although the international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The report expects the UR contract to trade sideways today [4]. - The main factors influencing the urea market are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price initially rose due to rumors of export liberalization but later declined as market sentiment cooled. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine has slightly rebounded, while agricultural demand has reached a short - term peak. The overall supply in the domestic market far exceeds demand, and export profits are strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), indicating a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is trading sideways. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The domestic supply still far exceeds demand, so the UR is expected to trade sideways today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include the strong international price; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1760 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1770 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2920 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1669 (-14), the basis is 91 (+14), the UR05 price is 1719 (-14), and the UR09 price is 1613 (-11) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 8897 (+54), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (unchanged), UR factory inventory is 917,000 tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 493,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - on - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, but the import dependence has gradually decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today. The main influencing factors include the strong international price and weak domestic demand, with the key risk being changes in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has oscillated and declined recently. The earlier rumor of increased urea export due to improved China - India relations led to a price increase, but the actual export demand has not improved significantly. The current daily production and operating rate are still high, and the inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea far exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable is 1810 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.9%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.7 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is oscillating. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply far exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Spot Price | Price Change | Futures Contract | Futures Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1810 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1739 | -25 | | Shandong Spot | 1810 | -10 | Basis | 71 | 15 | | Henan Spot | 1830 | 0 | UR05 | 1782 | -15 | | FOB China | 2941 | | UR09 | 1715 | -22 | | | | | | | | - The warehouse receipt is 4073 (+500), the UR comprehensive inventory is 145.7 million tons (unchanged), the UR manufacturer inventory is 96.8 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 48.9 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures market is expected to show a volatile trend today. The fundamentals are generally neutral, with high supply and mixed demand. After the export policy is implemented, the price lacks upward momentum and tends to stabilize [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price rebounded and then oscillated downward. Supply is high with new installations and high开工率 and daily production. Inventory is short - term volatile. Industrial demand shows a decline in compound fertilizer开工率 and high melamine开工率, while agricultural demand is short - term weak. International prices are strong, but export is restricted by policies. The spot price of the delivery product is 1880 (unchanged) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.05 million tons (+100,000 tons), a bearish factor [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, a bullish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to oscillate. High daily production, short - term inventory decline, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy implementation are the main factors [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5%, and the production was 3425 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a neutral state overall, with the price stabilizing after the export policy is implemented. The short - term trend of the main contract is expected to be volatile [4]. - The main logic lies in the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal changes in demand. The main risk is the change in export policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has rebounded and then fluctuated recently. The supply side has high operating rates and daily production, and new plants have been put into operation. The inventory has rapidly declined in the short term. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has significantly declined, and the inventory has increased. The operating rate of melamine has rapidly increased, and agricultural demand has gradually improved. The international urea price is strong, with high export profits but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was implemented on May 15 - 16, the price has stabilized. The spot price of the deliverable is 1930 (unchanged) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 38, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 950,000 tons (- 248,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has decreased, still indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with short - term rebound in the futures price, high daily production, short - term decline in inventory, and gradually improving agricultural demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include the implementation of export policies and the gradual improvement of agricultural demand; bearish factors include high daily production and new plant commissioning [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the deliverable is 1930 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1950 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1930 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2577 [6]. | | Futures | The UR09 contract price is 1892 (+6), UR01 is 1799 (-15), and UR05 is 1868 (-32). The basis of the UR2509 contract is 38 (-6) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 7352 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 950,000 tons (- 248,000 tons), UR factory inventory is 817,000 tons, and UR port inventory is 133,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with capacity growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 18.6%. The production volume has also generally shown an upward trend, and the apparent consumption has increased steadily. The import dependence has fluctuated between 10.2% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with high supply and marginal improvement in agricultural demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply - side and the marginal changes in demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has rebounded recently. Supply: The operating rate remains high and new production capacity is coming on - stream, with daily production expected to stay high, and inventory has rapidly increased again after a decline from a high level. Demand: In industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly declined and inventory has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and industrial demand is weak. Agricultural demand has shown marginal improvement. There are many rumors about recent export policies, but no official confirmation. The spot price of the deliverable is 1930 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 44, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.9 million tons (-11.1), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with high daily production, increasing inventory again, a decline in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations of export policy changes and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rate and daily production, increasing inventory again, and weak industrial demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1930 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1886 | -11 | Warehouse Receipt | 7352 | 303 | | Shandong Spot | 1950 | 0 | Basis | 44 | 11 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 950 | -248 | | Henan Spot | 1930 | 0 | UR01 | 1814 | 16 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 817 | -248 | | FOB China | 2575 | | UR05 | 1900 | -30 | UR Port Inventory | 133 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1886 | -11 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report from Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [2] - The analyst is Jin Zebin, with contact information 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The urea market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger today. The short - term trend of the main contract is upward, with high daily production, inventory reduction, and improved demand recently [4] - The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal change in demand. The main risk is the change in export policy [5] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The urea futures market has been volatile and strengthening recently. Supply: high daily production and operating rate, significant inventory reduction, and the inventory level has returned to a neutral position compared to previous years. Demand: the compound fertilizer operating rate in industrial demand is good, the melamine operating rate has declined, and agricultural demand has improved recently and is expected to remain so before Tomb - Sweeping Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to low - level buying opportunities. The spot price of the deliverable is 1940 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2505 contract is 11, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 99.8 million tons (-17.1), which is a bearish factor [4] Futures Market - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4] Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger today, with high daily production, inventory reduction, and improved demand [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and marginal recovery of demand. Bearish factors: high inventory and ample supply [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - Spot delivery product price: 1940 (-10); Shandong spot price: 1940 (-10); Henan spot price: 1970 (0); FOB China price: 1955 [6] Futures Market - UR01 price: 1848 (20); UR05 price: 1929 (57); UR09 price: 1859 (33); UR2505 contract basis: 11 (-67) [6] Inventory - Warehouse receipts: 5231 (-129); UR comprehensive inventory: 99.8 million tons; UR factory inventory: 86.8 million tons; UR port inventory: 13.0 million tons [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]