最近不少人盯着股市犯嘀咕：储蓄往股市转，外资也在加仓，可看到两融余额破 2.3 万亿，又忍不住 慌， 这不会像以前那样加杠杆出问题吧？ 最近不少老股民聊股市，都有点拿不准现在到底是什么形势。 听说好多人把银行里的存款转去买股票了，连外国资本也下场投钱，看着是挺热闹。 可一听说融资融券都突破了2.3万亿，不少人又开始犯嘀咕。 这数听着太吓人，犹豫的人都担心像以前那样，因为加杠杆出事儿， 但杨德龙却说不用怕，为啥他不 担心这2.3万亿打水漂？ 咱们老百姓把存款转去股市，这事儿靠不靠谱？外国资金加仓，又跟咱们投钱有啥关系？ 但从另一个角度看，杨德龙也说了，这正说明行情还在前期阶段，不是中后期 ， 要是到了中后期，才 会出现单日卖超百亿的情况。 而且现在居民存款利率都跌破 1% 了，大家拿着钱想找更高收益的地方，基金 "日光" 刚好证明储蓄开 始往股市转，这是个开头，不是结束。 杨德龙却觉得不用怕，还说这是慢牛的信号。 为啥他不担心 2.3 万亿的两融规模？储蓄转股市的趋势到底稳不稳？外资加仓又藏着哪些门道？想弄明 白这些，接着往下看就清楚了。 杨德龙说现在 A 股、港股在稳步上升，场外资金还在不断进来，不少人听着觉 ...

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are showing strong overall performance, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing the 26,000-point mark, indicating an accelerated upward trend [1] - A-shares have entered a period of consolidation after a rapid rise, but the current market rally is supported by policies and capital, suggesting a prolonged slow bull market rather than a short-term surge [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,870.60, down 0.12% - The Shenzhen Component Index is at 12,924.13, down 0.43% - The ChiNext Index is at 3,020.42, down 1.09% - The CSI 300 Index is at 4,522.00, down 0.57% [2] Fund Inflows - There is a strong willingness for external capital to enter the market, with the emergence of "daylight funds" that sell out in one day, indicating a shift of household savings into equity funds [4] - Current fundraising limits for these funds are between 1 to 5 billion, with no single fund exceeding 10 billion in one day sales yet [4] - The trend of household savings moving into capital markets is expected to continue, driven by declining deposit rates [4] Market Sentiment and Leverage - The current market is characterized by a cautious approach to leverage, with investors primarily using margin financing not exceeding two times [5] - The margin financing balance has surpassed 2.3 trillion, a historical high, but remains low relative to the total market capitalization [5] - Investors are advised to focus on medium to long-term goals and to be cautious with leverage, especially in volatile market conditions [5] Global Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market remains at historical highs, but high valuations may limit further strong stimulus from expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - A significant inflow of foreign capital into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has been observed, with over 10 billion USD entering A-shares in the first half of the year [6] Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. employment data and CPI growth suggest a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may influence global monetary policy, including potential actions by the People's Bank of China [7] - The international gold price has reached a new high of over 3,600 USD per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [7] Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on low-valuation, high-dividend sectors for stable returns, as well as technology and innovation sectors for growth potential [8] - The upcoming quarter may see more policies aimed at stabilizing growth, which could positively impact consumer confidence and investment [8]

近期A股和港股整体走势依然强劲，特别是恒生指数突破26000点整数关口，上行势头加快，而A股在前 期快速上攻之后进入震荡调整期。但由于A股和港股这一轮行情都是政策支持、资金推动的，因此这一 轮慢牛长期行情持续的时间可能会持续较长时间，而不是短期行情。即使出现调整，很可能只是短期调 整，幅度一般不大。 目前场外资金入场意愿依然较强。近期开始出现"日光基金"，即一日售罄的权益基金。当然，目前的募 资限额仍在10至50亿元左右，还没有出现单日销售上百亿元的情况。这说明居民储蓄通过买基金入市的 过程已经开启，也验证了我在去年年底发布的"2025年十大预言"中的预判——居民储蓄向资本市场大转 移，为市场带来源源不断的增量资金。另一方面，这也说明当前市场行情可能仍处于前期阶段，还未到 中后期。一般在行情中后期，单日销量往往会超过百亿，而目前只是个别基金出现"日光基金"现象，也 反映过去几年投资机会、投资信心不足。随着居民存款利率不断下调，六大行一年期存款利率已跌破 1%，许多投资者希望寻找更高收益的产品，资本市场走强正好吸引储蓄资金加速流入。无论是A股还 是港股，一些优质股票的股息率已超过多数债券收益率，具备较强的投资性 ...

A股和港股的估值在全球主要资本市场上是比较具有吸引力的，因此全球资本再平衡也给A股和港股带 来更多的增量资金，这推动了A股和港股在近期出现了连续上攻，上证指数突破了3500点，恒生指数来 到25000点附近，进一步确立了这轮慢牛长牛走势。另一方面，稳经济增长的政策正在逐步发力、落 地、显效，从近期公布的上半年经济数据来看，上半年GDP增速实现了年初5%的目标，达到了5.3%， 这也提振了投资者的信心。在下半年，更多的稳增长政策有望逐步落地，因此下半年实现5%以上的增 长也在预期之内，经济基础为A股和港股走强带来了较好的支撑。 从经济转型的角度来看，大力发展新的生产力、推动科技创新企业发展是既定的国策。人形机器人、芯 片半导体、英伟达产业链、生物医药特别是创新药等科技创新板块大幅上涨，形成了较强的赚钱效应， 进一步提升了投资者的信心。代表行情风向标的券商股近期也出现了连续上攻，这也预示着这轮行情或 能进一步走高，下半年A股和港股的表现有可能超出大多数人的预期，这轮市场上升既有政策面的支 持，又有资金流入的推动。 居民储蓄向资本市场大转移带来了源源不断的增量资金。过去五年，居民存款新增60万亿，累计达到 160万 ...