文：泽平宏观团队 摘要 2024年9月下旬以来，力度空前的宏观放松政策和AI科技浪潮点燃了A股"信心牛"行情。牛市有 何规律？本轮牛市后续怎么走？ 我们复盘A股三次大牛市，1999-2001年的519行情、2005-2007年的周期牛、2014-2015年的改革 牛和水牛，探寻牛市规律，为本轮行情演绎提供镜鉴。 1、1999-2001年的519行情 ： 始于经济低迷时的政策刺激，终于盈利无法消化估值泡沫。 2、2005-2007年的周期牛：基本面驱动的牛市，始于股权分置改革，受益于经济繁荣和流动性过 剩，持续时间长，涨幅大。 当时经济高速增长，但股权分置问题、国有股减持等影响信心，A股经历三年下跌。2005年股权 分置改革解开桎梏，开启大牛市。 上半场为估值修复驱动，国防军工、有色金属和非银金融领涨，随后进入2个月震荡期。下半场 为业绩驱动，随着上市公司业绩全面提升，迎来15个月的爆发期，与经济增长密切相关的周期和资源 类行业获得4-5倍涨幅。 但2008年国际金融危机冲击、经济增速放缓、政策紧缩、市场估值高企和解禁压力等多重因素共 同作用导致牛市结束。上证综指从2005年6月的998点开始，一路上涨至200 ...

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have rebounded significantly, continuing the upward trend from the previous week, indicating the start of the year-end market rally [1] - The recent market adjustment, particularly in the technology sector, is viewed as a normal correction rather than the end of the bullish trend, suggesting that the market is still in a growth phase [1] Technology Sector Insights - The current bull market is driven by multiple factors, including the recently approved "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes support for technology innovation in areas such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and biomedicine [2] - The technology sector is expected to continue leading the market, with significant profit opportunities anticipated in 2026 as the bull market deepens [2][3] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a balanced allocation strategy to capture structural opportunities across various sectors, including technology, new energy, and consumer goods [3][4] - The bull market is expected to last longer than a short-term spike, providing a more sustainable investment environment that can enhance household wealth and stimulate economic recovery [4] Future Market Expectations - The technology bull market is projected to persist into 2026, with an anticipated sequence of market leadership starting with "small tech stocks," followed by "mid-tech stocks," and eventually traditional sectors [3] - The current market dynamics suggest a rotation pattern that could become a defining characteristic of this bull market, highlighting the importance of both growth and value investments [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices falling sharply, particularly the Nasdaq, which dropped over 2% [1] - Notable investors, including Michael Burry, have taken large short positions against leading tech stocks, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] - Concerns about high valuation levels in the U.S. stock market have been raised by several Wall Street leaders, predicting potential corrections of 10% to 20% in the next 12 to 24 months [1][2] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is expected to exceed previous records, has heightened fears of an economic recession, impacting investor sentiment [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in response to recession risks, which has contributed to the decline in major stock indices and affected Chinese concept stocks [3] - The technology sector has been a strong performer this year, but profit-taking pressures are increasing as the market adjusts [3] Group 3 - The current market adjustment is viewed as a necessary correction within an ongoing upward trend, rather than an end to the bull market [5] - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and patience, focusing on sectors and companies that will benefit from economic transformation [6] - The upcoming closure of Hainan's free trade zone is anticipated to positively impact local economic growth and related listed companies, making it a hot sector in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, with major indices reaching new highs not seen in a decade, driven by optimism surrounding China's economic policies and the semiconductor sector's strong performance [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On October 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.71% to 3950.31 points, marking a new high since August 2015. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.57% [3][4]. - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.99 trillion yuan, a significant increase of approximately 330 billion yuan from the previous day, representing the highest single-day volume in the last seven trading days [4]. Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector led the market gains, with a rise of over 4%. Other sectors such as electronic chemicals and communication equipment also performed well, while coal and real estate services saw declines [4][5]. - Net inflows were observed in the semiconductor, electronic components, and consumer electronics sectors, with net inflows of 9.451 billion yuan, 5.685 billion yuan, and 5.3 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase express a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market, predicting a potential 30% increase in major indices by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings and a 5%-10% upward adjustment in valuations [6][7]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide new policy expectations and investment insights, which could enhance market confidence and attract more capital into the A-share market [6][8]. Investment Trends - The current market rally is characterized as a "technology bull market," with significant interest in sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductor chips, solid-state batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]. - The shift in economic focus towards technology and consumption is anticipated to stabilize market sentiment and drive the stock market's upward trajectory [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on technology stocks such as humanoid robots, semiconductor chips, solid-state batteries, innovative drugs, and low-altitude economy [2][3][4] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, indicating that technological innovation will remain a key aspect of China's economic growth [1][2] - Foreign investment confidence in China's technology sector is increasing, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expressing positive outlooks for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2][4] Group 2 - The current bull market is characterized by a rotation among sectors, with technology stocks leading the way, while dividend stocks, particularly in banking, are also performing well [1][5] - The shift in Chinese residents' savings towards capital markets is expected to create more investment opportunities, as savings rates decline and interest returns diminish [5][6] - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are seen as a potential catalyst for market growth, with expectations of positive developments that could benefit both economies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized by a technology bull market, driven by significant advancements in technology and innovation, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes innovation as a core element of modernization [1][2]. Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology bull market is primarily led by sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductor chips, intelligent driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries [2]. - The ChiNext Index saw a substantial increase in the third quarter, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) is transitioning from a "testing ground" to a "deep water zone" with the implementation of the "1+6" policy framework [1][2]. - The STAR Market is expected to play a crucial role in fostering new productivity and supporting the strategy of becoming a technology powerhouse [1]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Trends - Traditional industries are experiencing sluggish growth, with some facing overcapacity and insufficient demand, which is closely related to the ongoing economic transformation in China [1]. - The global market is currently witnessing a technology bull market, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reflecting this trend [3]. - The international gold price has surged significantly, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is also influencing the performance of technology stocks [3]. Group 3: Solid-State Battery Developments - Recent breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are noteworthy, with Toyota set to mass-produce a solid-state battery for vehicles that can achieve a range of 1200 kilometers [4]. - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their long range, high energy density, and safety, although high production costs remain a challenge [4][5]. - The solid-state battery sector is emerging as a key development direction in the new energy landscape, with potential applications in electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on commodity prices, the current state of the egg market, trading strategies in various sectors, and the dynamics of the lithium market in China, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rate Cuts and Commodity Prices - The relationship between overseas commodity indices and the U.S. dollar index has shifted over the years, showing a positive correlation before 2001, a negative correlation from 2001 to 2021, and a return to positive correlation from 2021 to 2024 due to the U.S. becoming a net exporter of oil [2]. - Commodity indices typically exhibit a "√" shaped trend during interest rate cuts, initially declining before rebounding as the Federal Reserve waits for unemployment and inflation to stabilize [2]. Group 2: Egg Market Analysis - The current egg market is characterized by slow depletion, steep structure, and high volatility, suggesting a prolonged decline in prices until March next year [3]. - A single strategy based on the leading chicken index indicates that shorting near-month contracts on price rallies is advisable, while an arbitrage strategy suggests that the near-low and far-high structure will continue [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Identifying market trends is crucial for stock trading, with a focus on leading stocks within sectors that are experiencing significant upward movement [5]. - The initiation point of a main upward wave is often marked by a MACD crossover above the zero line, indicating a strong buying opportunity [7]. Group 4: Lithium Market Dynamics - The expiration of mining licenses in the Jiangxi province has raised concerns about potential production halts, with a focus on compliance with new regulations regarding lithium mining [9]. - The influx of lithium ore imports has supported domestic production, with expectations for increased carbon lithium output in the coming months [10]. Group 5: Market Liquidity and Stock Performance - The current market rally is driven by liquidity rather than fundamental support, with the potential for sustained growth as long as liquidity remains abundant [11]. - A comparison of price-to-earnings ratios indicates that A-shares are not overvalued, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [12]. Group 6: Rubber Market Outlook - The rubber market is influenced by weather conditions in Southeast Asia, tire factory operating rates, and inventory levels at Qingdao Port, which are critical indicators for price movements [15][17][18]. Group 7: Gold and Commodity Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and other commodities suggests that rising gold prices may indicate a weakening dollar and increased global liquidity, which could eventually lead to improved demand for other commodities [19].

Group 1: Gold Market - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 775.04 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.14% [1] - The opening price for the day was 776.0 CNY per gram, with a high of 777.22 CNY and a low of 774.76 CNY [1] - Market risk appetite remains high, suggesting short-term fluctuations in gold prices, but potential interest rate cuts in September may provide support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices are expected to experience short-term range fluctuations, but the medium-term outlook will be driven by fundamental factors [3] Group 3: Macro Economic Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester does not support interest rate cuts if the Fed is to make a policy decision imminently [1] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in September, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Jackson Hole global central bank conference is drawing attention, with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to deliver a keynote speech, which investors are eagerly awaiting for clues on interest rate direction [1] Group 4: U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a consensus on a trade agreement framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, and semiconductors [2] - The framework specifies that the U.S. will apply the most favored nation (MFN) tariff or a 15% reciprocal tariff on EU-origin goods, with certain products facing MFN tariffs starting September 1, 2025 [2] - The agreement aims to reduce the current 27.5% tariff on automobiles and parts to a maximum of 15%, alleviating pressure on the European automotive industry [2]

Core Points - The United States and the European Union reached an agreement on the framework of a trade accord on August 21, covering 19 key areas including agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, and EU investments in the US [1] Group 1 - The trade agreement framework includes diverse sectors such as agriculture, automotive, aerospace, semiconductors, and energy [1] - European Parliament's Trade Committee Chairman Bernd Lange expressed concerns about the fairness of the agreement, stating that many critical issues remain unresolved [1] - Lange highlighted that the recent imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum has not been addressed, indicating an imbalance in the agreement that favors the US [1]

Core Points - The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on a trade framework covering various sectors including agriculture, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductors, energy, and digital trade barriers [1][2][5] Group 1: Tariff Changes - The EU will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial products and provide preferential market access for U.S. agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, and processed fruits and vegetables [2] - The U.S. will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most EU goods, effective from September 1, 2025, for certain products [3][4] Group 2: Energy and Technology Procurement - The EU plans to purchase U.S. energy products, including liquefied natural gas and oil, with expected purchases reaching $750 billion by 2028 [5] - The EU will also commit to acquiring at least $40 billion worth of U.S. artificial intelligence chips for data center construction in Europe [5] Group 3: Future Negotiations - The EU and the U.S. will continue discussions on further tariff reductions following intensive negotiations led by trade officials from both sides [6]