2025 年 11 月 14 日 债券市场或已对金融数据回落有所预期 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：央行公布 2025 年 10 月金融数据，社融新增 0.82 万亿元，社融存量同比 增长 8.5%，较前值下降 0.2pct；2025 年前三季度社会融资规模增量累计为 30.90 万亿元，同比增长 14.1%；M1 同比增长 6.2%，M2 同比增长 8.2%，M0 同比增 长 10.6%，前十个月净投放现金 7284 亿元。 债券市场或已对 10 月金融数据回落有所预期 1、地方政府化债会阶段性下拉贷款增长。2025 年三季度货币政策报告指出 2024 年以来，地方政府发行 4 万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行 贷款。地方政府通过发行低利率债券偿还高息贷款，降低融资成本的同时避免两 头付息。化债将支持方式从贷款转为债券，并不影响整体支持力度。 2、政府部门加杠杆对冲 ...

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]