Core Viewpoint - The domestic engineering machinery market is expected to continue its recovery trend in 2025, driven by infrastructure and large-scale water conservancy projects, despite short-term inventory adjustments affecting sales in May 2025 [1] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic engineering machinery industry has shown two significant upward cycles: 2006-2011 and 2016-2021, with the latter driven by government investment and infrastructure projects [7] - From 2021 to 2023, domestic sales revenue for major companies like SANY and XCMG dropped sharply, while export revenue increased significantly, indicating a shift towards international markets [9] - As of early 2024, domestic demand for hydraulic excavators has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 20% [10][15] - The demand narrative for domestic engineering machinery has fundamentally changed, with a shift away from reliance on real estate towards infrastructure projects and agricultural development [16] Export Market Dynamics - The export ratio of domestic engineering machinery companies has increased from less than 10% to over 50%, enhancing their ability to benefit from global demand recovery [3] - The export of second-hand excavators has accelerated, with 2025 projections indicating that second-hand exports will impact domestic sales significantly, accounting for 76.5% of the influence on new machine sales [18] Global Market Trends - The global engineering machinery market is expected to hit bottom in 2025, with a long-term upward trend beginning in 2026, primarily due to declining growth in major markets like Europe and North America [1] - Caterpillar and Komatsu reported declines in Q2 2025 revenues, with Caterpillar's revenue at $16.569 billion, down 1% year-on-year, affected by pricing pressures and increased manufacturing costs [20][27] - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, continue to contribute positively to global engineering machinery demand, offsetting declines in developed markets [29][35]

Summary of the Conference Call for Hengli Hydraulic Company Overview - Hengli Hydraulic is a core component supplier for excavators, with stable production schedules in its pump and valve factory. The company experienced a year-on-year growth in Q1, although it was slightly lower than that of the main engine manufacturers. [2][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Q1 Performance and Future Outlook**: The company expects improved performance in Q2, with full production capacity and increased employee overtime since March, leading to a significant recovery in revenue and profit. [2][4] - **Non-Excavator Business Growth**: Nearly half of the company's revenue comes from non-excavator businesses. Although high-end business saw a significant decline in Q1, the continuous expansion of non-high-end business is noteworthy and may provide new growth points. [2][4] - **Engineering Machinery Industry Cycle**: The third round of the engineering machinery cycle has begun, with low domestic inventory levels. Data from Komatsu regarding operating hours and excavator sales indicate a marginal improvement in industry conditions. The excavator industry is expected to enter a proactive inventory replenishment cycle in the next two to three years, presenting opportunities for Hengli Hydraulic. [2][5][6] - **Second-Hand Machinery Market**: The opening of overseas channels for second-hand machinery is accelerating the domestic renewal cycle, which will increase demand for Hengli Hydraulic's products. [2][6] - **Humanoid Robotics Sector**: Hengli Hydraulic has shown strong performance in the humanoid robotics field, supplying Tesla with thigh joint planetary roller screw modules and engaging in 14 joint modules and micro screws. The likelihood of securing Tesla orders in Q2 and Q3 is high. [2][7] - **Client Expansion in Robotics**: The company is actively expanding its client base in the humanoid robotics sector, including domestic companies like XPeng, Seres, and Xiaomi, as well as tech firms like ByteDance. Continuous improvements in micro ball screw processing technology enhance its competitiveness in this field. [2][7] Additional Important Insights - **Current Market Valuation**: Hengli Hydraulic's current market capitalization is approximately 90 billion RMB, with an expected 10% growth in its main business by 2025, corresponding to a profit of about 2.8 billion RMB. The main business is valued at around 80 billion RMB, while the humanoid robotics segment is expected to be valued at over 10 billion RMB. The company has manageable downside risks and high upside potential, suggesting favorable investment opportunities. [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand for excavators has exceeded expectations, with a 51% year-on-year growth in sales during January and February 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the market [1][10]. - The report anticipates a cyclical upturn in the domestic market, as the sales volume of core products has dropped by 70%-80% compared to the previous peak, alleviating the base pressure significantly [3][20]. - The report highlights that the demand for equipment replacement and upgrades will provide sustained support for the cyclical upturn, with a new round of replacement cycle beginning [3][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand Performance - In January and February 2025, excavator sales reached 11,640 units in February, a 99.4% increase year-on-year, with total sales for the two months at 17,045 units, reflecting a 51.4% increase [10][12]. - Other machinery types also showed positive performance despite the impact of the Spring Festival in January, with loaders and graders experiencing year-on-year growth of 23.9% and 5.7%, respectively [2][10]. Market Cycle Analysis - The domestic engineering machinery market has experienced four years of decline, and the report suggests that it is nearing a bottom, with expectations for recovery in 2025 [3][20]. - The report notes that significant investment in infrastructure and construction projects is expected to commence in the second half of 2024, which will further boost demand for engineering machinery [21][22]. Replacement Demand - The report emphasizes that the demand for equipment replacement is expected to increase, driven by the aging of machinery and government policies aimed at phasing out older, more polluting models [28][34]. - The increase in the export of second-hand machinery has also contributed to the reduction of domestic inventory, enhancing the certainty of replacement demand [39][40]. Regional Performance - The report identifies regions with strong growth, particularly those with strict environmental regulations and significant water conservancy projects, such as Heilongjiang, Hainan, and Guangxi, which saw year-on-year growth exceeding 40% in 2024 [15][16]. - The performance of different regions varies significantly, influenced by local investment conditions and project commencement timelines [15][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as XCMG and SANY, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and have strong profit margins [45].

Core Viewpoint - The aerial work platform industry has experienced a golden decade from 2013 to 2023, but it is now facing challenges due to market saturation and declining demand in key regions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Growth and Market Dynamics - From 2013 to 2017, growth was primarily driven by mature markets in Europe and North America, with significant demand for replacement due to new emission regulations [2]. - The period from 2018 to 2021 saw a surge in demand from China, while the growth from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be led by the United States [2][3]. - The domestic market for aerial work platforms has shown less volatility compared to earthmoving machinery, maintaining steady sales despite a downturn in real estate and infrastructure [3][4]. Group 2: Rental Market Insights - The rental market for aerial work platforms is characterized by a duopoly, with major players holding significant market shares, and rental rates have been declining, indicating oversupply [8][9]. - The rental utilization rate has been on a downward trend, with projections for 2024 indicating a further decline, which could lead to the exit of smaller rental companies [12]. Group 3: Export Challenges and Tariffs - The European Union has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese aerial work platforms, leading to increased tariffs that could impact competitiveness [16][17]. - Companies that have localized production in Europe are better positioned to mitigate tariff impacts, with some achieving significant reductions in their tariff rates [18][19]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Trends - The aerial work platform market is facing a triple challenge: cooling domestic construction in China, policy pressures in Europe, and limited growth in the Belt and Road Initiative markets [25]. - The U.S. market is showing signs of slowdown, with the infrastructure investment act losing momentum, which could affect future growth prospects for aerial work platforms [24].