Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower construction project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly impact the engineering machinery industry, creating substantial demand for various types of equipment [1]. Group 1: Equipment Demand - The Yarlung hydropower project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction volume close to 500 million cubic meters, will create a market space of over 200 billion yuan for equipment, as equipment costs may account for nearly 20% of the total investment [2]. - Different stages of the project will require various types of machinery: large excavators, loaders, and bulldozers will be essential during the initial earthwork phase, while concrete machinery like mixers and pumps will be crucial during the main construction phase. Additionally, tunnel boring machines will be needed for water diversion [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The engineering machinery industry is currently on an upward cycle, with excavator sales showing positive year-on-year growth since March of last year. The opening of the Yarlung project is seen as a "bonus" that will further enhance domestic demand for engineering machinery [4]. - The core driver of the industry's upward cycle is the replacement of old equipment, which has been ongoing since the sales of excavators turned positive. The Yarlung project will reinforce this upward trend, but the primary factor remains the demand for equipment replacement [4]. Group 3: Export and Domestic Demand - The engineering machinery industry's revenue is significantly supported by exports, which contributed approximately 52% of total revenue last year. The export momentum is improving, with a year-on-year increase of about 11% in June for excavator exports [5][6]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, are showing strong demand and growth. The European market is also recovering, with a notable year-on-year increase of about 29% in excavator exports to Western Europe [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The combination of a domestic upward cycle, favorable export conditions, and the additional demand from the Yarlung project positions the engineering machinery sector as a high-value investment opportunity. Following a valuation correction in May, the sector is currently at the lower end of its historical valuation range, making it an attractive time for investment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand for excavators has exceeded expectations, with a 51% year-on-year growth in sales during January and February 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the market [1][10]. - The report anticipates a cyclical upturn in the domestic market, as the sales volume of core products has dropped by 70%-80% compared to the previous peak, alleviating the base pressure significantly [3][20]. - The report highlights that the demand for equipment replacement and upgrades will provide sustained support for the cyclical upturn, with a new round of replacement cycle beginning [3][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand Performance - In January and February 2025, excavator sales reached 11,640 units in February, a 99.4% increase year-on-year, with total sales for the two months at 17,045 units, reflecting a 51.4% increase [10][12]. - Other machinery types also showed positive performance despite the impact of the Spring Festival in January, with loaders and graders experiencing year-on-year growth of 23.9% and 5.7%, respectively [2][10]. Market Cycle Analysis - The domestic engineering machinery market has experienced four years of decline, and the report suggests that it is nearing a bottom, with expectations for recovery in 2025 [3][20]. - The report notes that significant investment in infrastructure and construction projects is expected to commence in the second half of 2024, which will further boost demand for engineering machinery [21][22]. Replacement Demand - The report emphasizes that the demand for equipment replacement is expected to increase, driven by the aging of machinery and government policies aimed at phasing out older, more polluting models [28][34]. - The increase in the export of second-hand machinery has also contributed to the reduction of domestic inventory, enhancing the certainty of replacement demand [39][40]. Regional Performance - The report identifies regions with strong growth, particularly those with strict environmental regulations and significant water conservancy projects, such as Heilongjiang, Hainan, and Guangxi, which saw year-on-year growth exceeding 40% in 2024 [15][16]. - The performance of different regions varies significantly, influenced by local investment conditions and project commencement timelines [15][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as XCMG and SANY, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and have strong profit margins [45].