证券研究报告 2025年10月10日 行业评级：优于大市 评级变动：维持 机械设备行业跟踪：工程机械行业韧性足，内外销 整体边际改善 分析师：谷诚 资格证书：S0650524120002 邮箱：gucheng@mgzq.com 联系人：刘康衡 资格证书：S0650125020014 邮箱：liukangheng@mgzq.com 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 摘要 资料来源：麦高证券研究发展部 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 1 ➢ 宏观景气度跟踪：2025年8月中国制造业PMI录得49.4%，环比上升0.1个百分点，仍处于收缩区间，其中生产 PMI指数达50.8%，处于扩张区间。新订单PMI、原材料库存PMI指数和新出口订单PMI指数达49.5%、48.0%、 47.2%，相比于7月数据呈现边际改善态势，但是仍处于收缩区间。2025年8月中国工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）同比下降2.9%，环比结束连续8个月下行态势，由下降0.2%转为持平，居民消费价格指数（CPI）由上 月同比持平转为下降0.4%。2025年1-8月全国固定资产投资完成额326111亿元，同比增长0.5%，其中基础设施 投资同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator market in August 2025 showed strong performance despite being a traditional off-season, indicating a recovery in domestic demand and a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry [4][5]. Group 1: Excavator Sales Performance - In August 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units, up 14.8% [4]. - From January to August 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) were 154,181 units, reflecting a 17.2% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 80,628 units, increasing by 21.5% [4]. Group 2: Non-Excavator Machinery Recovery - Non-excavator machinery categories showed significant recovery in August 2025, with loader domestic sales up 18.3%, grader sales up 16.1%, truck crane sales up 28.2%, crawler crane sales up 51.7%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 24.2% [4][5]. Group 3: Government Support and Infrastructure Investment - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support infrastructure projects and stimulate demand for engineering machinery [6]. - The report emphasized the continuation of urban infrastructure investment and the promotion of new urbanization, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery, particularly in underground, municipal, and water conservancy projects [7]. Group 4: Export Growth and Market Opportunities - In August 2025, excavator exports reached 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with total exports from January to August at 73,553 units, up 12.8% [8]. - The engineering machinery export market is expected to grow, driven by increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [8]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - Electric loader sales in August 2025 surged to 2,477 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 159.4%, with an electrification rate of 26.2%, up 14.8 percentage points [9]. - From January to August 2025, electric loader sales totaled 18,821 units, reflecting a 154.8% year-on-year growth, with an electrification rate of 22.6%, up 13.6 percentage points [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese construction machinery industry is experiencing a recovery driven by both domestic and international demand, with companies showing resilience through localization and product upgrades [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Recovery - In the first eight months of 2025, excavator sales reached 154,181 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with domestic sales at 80,628 units (up 21.5%) and exports at 73,553 units (up 12.8%) [2] - The sales of graders also saw growth, with a total of 5,650 units sold, reflecting a 5.25% increase year-on-year, driven by domestic sales of 1,023 units (up 33.6%) and exports of 4,627 units (up 0.54%) [2] - The recovery is attributed to increased infrastructure investment and a significant demand for equipment updates, as the industry approaches a ten-year equipment replacement cycle [3] Group 2: New Application Scenarios - The industry is expanding into new application areas such as renewable energy, mining, and agriculture, creating a diverse growth landscape [4] - The urban renewal wave in municipal engineering is driving demand for small to medium-sized construction machinery, with projects like underground pipeline renovations and old community refurbishments set to commence in 2025 [4] - The push for carbon neutrality is expected to boost demand for customized equipment in the wind power sector, particularly large cranes and specialized excavators [4] Group 3: Global Expansion Strategies - Companies are accelerating their international expansion, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, while also achieving structural growth in Europe and North America through product upgrades [6] - A combination of localized operations and product upgrades is being employed to navigate the changing international trade environment, enhancing responsiveness to local market needs [6] - Companies like Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic are establishing overseas R&D centers and production bases to strengthen supply chain resilience and transition from product sales to localized services [6][7] Group 4: High-Quality Development - The Chinese construction machinery industry is gradually entering a phase of high-quality development, characterized by recovery in production and sales, expansion into new application scenarios, and breakthroughs in overseas markets [7] - The industry is expected to achieve stable growth in volume and quality, further solidifying its leading position in the global market [7]

Group 1: Company Overview - The main business revenue comes from the production and sales of bulldozers, excavators, loaders, road rollers, graders, pavers, milling machines, concrete machinery, and core components like track chassis and transmission parts [2]. - The sales model includes a combination of agency distribution for main products and a mix of supply and agency sales for parts, along with expanding into operational leasing services [2]. Group 2: Excavator Business Development - The excavator market has seen significant growth in the first half of the year due to a combination of policy stimulation, infrastructure resilience, and inventory clearance [3]. - The company completed a strategic merger with Shandong Heavy Industry in December 2024, enhancing resource integration in R&D, manufacturing, sales, and service for excavators [3]. - The product range for excavators spans from 1.5 tons to 200 tons, achieving a market coverage rate of over 98%, with industry-leading technology in electronic control systems, noise reduction, and energy efficiency [3]. Group 3: H-Share Issuance - In July 2025, the company’s board approved the issuance of H shares and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4]. - The company received approval from its controlling shareholder for the H share issuance and submitted the application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 28, 2025 [4]. - The proposed issuance will not exceed 15% of the total share capital post-issuance, amounting to a maximum of 264,731,100 shares, with pricing determined through market-based methods [4].

Grading 1: Grader Machines - In August 2025, a total of 683 grader machines were sold, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.4%, with domestic sales of 108 units (up 16.1%) and exports of 575 units (down 16.3%) [1] - From January to August 2025, 5,650 grader machines were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.25%, with domestic sales of 1,023 units (up 33.6%) and exports of 4,627 units (up 0.54%) [1] Grading 2: Truck Cranes - In August 2025, 1,434 truck cranes were sold, down 4.65% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 736 units (up 28.2%) and exports of 698 units (down 24.9%) [2] - From January to August 2025, 13,544 truck cranes were sold, a year-on-year decline of 6.47%, with domestic sales of 7,491 units (down 8.53%) and exports of 6,053 units (down 3.78%) [2] Grading 3: Crawler Cranes - In August 2025, 273 crawler cranes were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, with domestic sales of 88 units (up 51.7%) and exports of 185 units (up 40.2%) [3] - From January to August 2025, 2,080 crawler cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with domestic sales of 644 units (up 12.8%) and exports of 1,436 units (up 18.1%) [3] Grading 4: Truck-Mounted Cranes - In August 2025, 1,664 truck-mounted cranes were sold, up 7.29% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 1,313 units (up 24.2%) and exports of 351 units (down 28.9%) [4] - From January to August 2025, 16,871 truck-mounted cranes were sold, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, with domestic sales of 13,158 units (up 0.58%) and exports of 3,713 units (up 16.4%) [4] Grading 5: Tower Cranes - In August 2025, 424 tower cranes were sold, down 9.79% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 219 units (down 29.1%) and exports of 205 units (up 27.3%) [5] - From January to August 2025, 3,605 tower cranes were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.5%, with domestic sales of 1,936 units (down 54.1%) and exports of 1,669 units (up 29.7%) [5] Grading 6: Industrial Vehicles - In August 2025, 118,087 forklifts were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with domestic sales of 70,174 units (up 19.3%) and exports of 47,913 units (up 19.6%) [6] - From January to August 2025, 976,026 forklifts were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic sales of 616,256 units (up 11.3%) and exports of 359,770 units (up 15.7%) [6] Grading 7: Rollers - In August 2025, 1,312 rollers were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with domestic sales of 476 units (up 6.49%) and exports of 836 units (up 18.9%) [7] - From January to August 2025, 12,172 rollers were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, with domestic sales of 4,625 units (up 15.4%) and exports of 7,547 units (up 24.3%) [8] Grading 8: Pavers - In August 2025, 118 pavers were sold, up 20.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 80 units (up 37.9%) and exports of 38 units (down 5%) [9] - From January to August 2025, 1,117 pavers were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, with domestic sales of 816 units (up 43.9%) and exports of 301 units (up 11.5%) [9] Grading 9: Aerial Work Platforms - In August 2025, 13,430 aerial work platforms were sold, down 18.7% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 4,040 units (down 40.9%) and exports of 9,390 units (down 2.93%) [10] - From January to August 2025, 119,485 aerial work platforms were sold, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.5%, with domestic sales of 45,834 units (down 47.2%) and exports of 73,651 units (down 13.6%) [10] Grading 10: High-altitude Work Vehicles - In August 2025, 490 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, showing a year-on-year increase of 88.5%, with domestic sales of 485 units (up 99.6%) and exports of 5 units (down 70.6%) [11] - From January to August 2025, 3,334 high-altitude work vehicles were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, with domestic sales of 3,189 units (up 39.3%) and exports of 145 units (up 72.6%) [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with a projected increase of over 5% relative to the benchmark index in the next six months [1][118]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic indicators are showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in engineering machinery sales [1]. - In the first seven months of 2025, excavator sales reached 137,658 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [19][26]. - The report highlights a structural divergence in the sales of various types of cranes, with tower cranes and truck cranes experiencing declines due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, while crawler cranes are benefiting from strong demand in large-scale energy projects [54]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Tracking - As of July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the production PMI was at 50.5%, signaling expansion [2][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.4% month-on-month [11][12]. - Fixed asset investment in China reached 288,229 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 7.3% [14]. 2. Sales Overview of Chinese Engineering Machinery - In the first seven months of 2025, various machinery sales showed mixed results: - Excavators: 137,658 units (+17.8%) - Concrete machinery: 183,700 units (-2.14%) - Tower cranes: 3,181 units (-36.8%) - Crawler cranes: +13.1% - Truck cranes: +3.3% [19][27][30][38][48]. - The report indicates that the sales of forklifts reached 857,939 units, marking a 12% increase year-on-year [104][111]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes that domestic infrastructure investment remains resilient, with machinery related to construction, such as road rollers and pavers, expected to benefit in the long term [102]. - The government has increased the issuance of special bonds for local governments, which is anticipated to drive demand for engineering equipment [102].

Summary of Shantui Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shantui Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the engineering machinery industry, primarily engaged in the production of bulldozers and excavators. The company is part of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, which includes other well-known enterprises such as Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [2][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Composition**: Over 70% of Shantui's revenue comes from overseas markets, with expectations for overseas revenue to reach 9 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 21% year-on-year growth. However, the company needs to monitor the impact of the weakening Russian market on performance [2][3]. - **Profit Contribution**: Mining machinery contributes over 40% of Shantui's net profit, with high-power bulldozers being a significant source of profit. The company is expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends and demand from emerging markets, enhancing profitability [2][3]. - **Share Buyback and Market Confidence**: Shantui plans to repurchase shares worth 150 to 300 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans and has initiated an application for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating confidence in future growth. However, the potential dilution effect from the Hong Kong listing should be considered [2][3]. - **Market Position**: Shantui ranks third globally in bulldozer sales, with over 70% market share in the Chinese export market, indicating a monopolistic position. The company must remain vigilant regarding market strategies from competitors like Caterpillar and Komatsu [2][3]. - **Financial Performance**: In the first half of 2025, Shantui's total revenue was 7 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year. The gross margin for main engine business was 24%, with overseas market revenue accounting for 56%, up 8% year-on-year, while domestic market growth was relatively slow [2][9]. - **Future Profit Projections**: Shantui expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.35 billion, 1.75 billion, and 2.55 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23%. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 11, 8, and 7, indicating a low valuation compared to peers [4][20]. - **Market Layout**: Shantui's market is primarily focused on Africa, Indonesia, the Middle East, and other Belt and Road Initiative countries, with Africa holding the highest share at 30%-40%. The demand for engineering machinery in these regions is expected to grow steadily [5][13]. - **Management Changes**: Recent management changes include the appointment of Li Shizheng as chairman and Zhang Ming as general manager, both of whom have extensive experience in the industry, which is expected to positively influence the company's future development [10][11]. Additional Important Information - **Cost Reduction Measures**: Shantui has implemented cost reduction measures totaling 520 million yuan, aimed at significantly lowering operational costs and improving overall profitability [19]. - **Risks to Consider**: Investors should be aware of potential risks, including lower-than-expected infrastructure and real estate investments and overseas trade friction, which could adversely affect future performance [21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Shantui Co., Ltd.'s business operations, market position, financial performance, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic sales of construction machinery in July showed strong performance despite being traditionally a slow season, with various equipment categories experiencing significant year-on-year growth [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Performance - Excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [4] - Loader sales totaled 4,549 units, up 2.48% year-on-year [4] - Grader sales were 97 units, reflecting a 7.78% increase [4] - Roller sales amounted to 544 units, with a growth of 24.2% [4] - Paver sales were 84 units, showing a substantial increase of 75% [4] - Truck crane sales reached 673 units, up 6.83% year-on-year [4] - Crawler crane sales were 62 units, marking a 72.2% increase [4] - All-terrain crane sales totaled 1,440 units, with a year-on-year growth of 9.34% [4] Group 2: Export Performance - Excavator exports reached 9,832 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.9% [4] - Loader exports totaled 4,451 units, up 13% year-on-year [4] - Grader exports were 527 units, reflecting a slight increase of 0.96% [4] - Roller exports amounted to 866 units, with a growth of 23.5% [4] - Paver exports were 25 units, showing a decline of 50% [4] - Truck crane exports reached 685 units, up 12.5% year-on-year [4] - Crawler crane exports totaled 179 units, marking a significant increase of 53% [4] - All-terrain crane exports were 347 units, reflecting an 8.1% increase [4] - The total export value of excavators in July was 6.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 33% [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The construction machinery industry is expected to continue performing well in the second half of the year, driven by favorable policies in real estate and infrastructure, as well as the commencement of major water conservancy projects [4] - The overall trend for exports is also positive, with demand improving in European markets and sustained performance in Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa [4]

Core Insights - Zhonghaidah announced on August 25 that its self-developed pile foundation construction management system and core products in the engineering machinery control field have been successfully applied in major construction projects across various sectors in China, including high-speed rail, mining, canals, highways, and water conservancy dams [2] - The company's mechanical control products have gained recognition from overseas clients, with its excavator 3D guidance system, grader 3D automatic control system, and bulldozer 3D automatic control system successfully implemented in multiple countries and regions in Europe and Asia, laying a solid foundation for the company's overseas expansion in engineering machinery control [2] - In the agricultural machinery control sector, the company is accelerating the development of its brand and sales network, with a growing domestic sales team and over 20 new overseas sales channels established, completing the sales network layout in more than 10 key agricultural countries in Asia and Europe [2] - The company has partnered with multiple international collaborators to create localized services, establishing a subsidiary in Hungary as a local service center for product distribution, technical support, and after-sales service in Europe, effectively enhancing customer response speed and service quality, thereby increasing regional customer loyalty [2]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the reporting period is approximately 7.00 billion yuan, an increase from 6.51 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a growth rate of about 7.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 568.29 million yuan, up from 418.47 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a growth of about 35.8% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is approximately 558.80 million yuan, compared to 409.45 million yuan in the previous year, showing an increase of about 36.4% [1] - The basic and diluted earnings per share are both 0.3788 yuan, up from 0.2788 yuan in the previous year [1] - The weighted average return on equity is 10.28%, an increase of 2.21 percentage points year-on-year [19] Cash Flow and Investment - The net cash flow from operating activities is approximately 229.72 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.26% from the previous year [22] - The net cash flow from financing activities is approximately 57.22 million yuan, an increase of 306% year-on-year [22] - The net cash flow from investing activities is approximately -287 million yuan, compared to 129 million yuan in the same period last year [22] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets at the end of the reporting period are approximately 18.08 billion yuan, down from 18.29 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [1] - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased to approximately 5.68 billion yuan from 5.24 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Accounts receivable and notes receivable increased by 16.23%, while cash and cash equivalents decreased by 18.6% [34] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is 60.6%, indicating a stable financial structure compared to industry averages [45] Shareholder Structure - The top ten shareholders include new entrants such as China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd. and social security funds, while existing shareholders like Weichai Power Co., Ltd. and Shandong Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. have increased their holdings [49][50] - The shareholding structure reflects a diversification of institutional investors, which may enhance the company's stability and growth potential [49]