自今年伊始，中国房地产市场便显露出显著的调整态势。截至十月，全国七十个大中城市中，新建商品住宅价格环比下跌的城市已达五十八个，二手住宅 价格环比下跌的城市更是多达六十二个，较上月分别新增了四个和一处。值得关注的是，曾经坚挺的一线城市房价也未能幸免，开始显现下跌迹象。数据 显示，十月份一线城市的新建商品住宅销售价格环比下跌了百分之零点一，二手住宅价格更是环比下滑了百分之零点三。 与此同时，房地产开发商的销售业绩亦呈现同步下滑的窘境。今年一至十月，全国商品房销售面积同比下降了百分之二十二点三，其中住宅销售面积的跌 幅更是达到了百分之二十五点五。销售面积的萎缩直接导致销售额同步下降，整体商品房销售额同比下滑了百分之二十六点一，而住宅销售额的降幅更是 达到了百分之二十八点二。此外，据中指研究院发布的统计数据，今年前十个月，全国百强房企的销售额累计为六万零九百五十四亿元，同比大幅下降了 百分之四十三点四。 至于未来房价的走向，今年十月，官媒《第一财经》曾刊发一篇引人深思的文章，并在文中多次强调"房价重估"的必要性。文章指出，当前许多地区房价 已严重偏离社会承受能力，并非常态。其核心观点可以用"房地产定价重估"这七个字来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The demand in the peak season is not strong, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - level - **Overseas Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading [5][9] - **Domestic Macro**: "Qiushi" re - mentioned "anti - involution", aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, and policy expectations resurfaced [5][8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - The peak - season demand is likely to be weak. Traders change from demanders in the off - season to suppliers in the peak season, increasing the supply pressure of steel. To keep inventory stable, supply needs to be reduced through price decline and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts as scrap steel for electric furnaces is a high - cost iron element [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 01 contract of rebar continued the reverse - arbitrage logic. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3260 yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3114 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 92 yuan/ton [14][17] - **Demand**: New - home sales remained low, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remained high, showing rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. The demand showed seasonal recovery but was at a low level compared to the same period [18][21][22] - **MS Weekly Data**: Demand bottomed out and inventory decreased slightly. Scrap steel remained a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [23][29] - **Production Profit**: Due to the revision of production - restriction policy expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 166 yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 130 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 83 yuan/ton [31][35] 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 01 contract of hot - rolled coil showed a positive - arbitrage widening trend. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3313 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 82 yuan/ton [37][40] - **Demand**: It was the seasonal peak season, and demand increased month - on - month. However, the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries were poor, so there was a risk of weak demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The export profit was opened due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and exports remained high [41][42][43] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply remained high, and inventory continued to accumulate. The production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [45][46] - **Production Profit**: Due to the revision of policy expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 112 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 179 yuan/ton [49][51] 3.5 Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities of the widening of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread [52] 3.6 Variety Regional Difference - The report provided the regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil among different cities such as Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [60][61][63] 3.7 Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presented the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - plates from 2021 to 2025 [66][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The demand shows a lackluster performance, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric arc furnaces [3]. - In the peak season, the demand for steel is likely to be weaker than expected. During the positive feedback stage of off - season expectations, traders are the main demanders, but they will become suppliers in the peak season, leading to greater supply pressure on steel. To keep inventory from increasing, supply needs to be reduced, which requires price drops and profit compression. Since scrap steel used in electric arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, the production reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces should be monitored [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - Overseas macro: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading [5]. - Domestic macro: The "Qiushi" magazine republished an article on "anti - involution", including efforts to rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, and effectively governing the "involution" hotspots in accordance with laws and regulations. Policy expectations have resurfaced [5]. - Black industry chain: The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and they maintain high production. The demand shows a seasonal rebound, and the inventory accumulation of steel slows down [12]. 2. Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Due to the suppression of warehouse receipts, the 10 - 01 contract continued the reverse - spread logic. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3260 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3172 (+45) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 88 (-5) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 94 (-2) yuan/ton [15][18]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remained at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remained low. The demand showed a seasonal rebound but was at a low level compared to the same period [22]. - **MS weekly data**: The demand may gradually bottom out, and attention should be paid to the inventory changes in the peak season. Scrap steel is still a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [24][32]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 153 (+48) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 143 (-26) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 109 (-13) yuan/ton [38]. 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Attention should be paid to the positive - spread. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3420 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3374 (+10) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 46 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 51 (+20) yuan/ton [40][43]. - **Demand**: It is the seasonal peak season, and the demand rebounded month - on - month. However, the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries are not good, so there is a risk that the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season may be lackluster. The export profit has opened up due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the export volume remains at a high level [44][46]. - **MS weekly data**: The demand rebounded, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory accumulated. The production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [48][49]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 150 (+26) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 195 (-61) yuan/ton [54]. 4. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate to hot - rolled coil spread [55]. 5. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides the price differences between different regions for rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc [63]. 6. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption for cold - rolled coils and medium - plates [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Report's Core View - The US GDP in Q2 exceeded expectations, with the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value at 3%, higher than the expected 2.4%. The inflation level declined, and the Fed's rate - cut decision still needs time. Although the economy is cooling moderately, the market's expectation of a soft landing is hard to break. The dollar index is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, the US Treasury yield will rise again, gold will continue to correct, and the US stock market will perform strongly. However, attention should be paid to the increased market volatility caused by the worse - than - expected economic downturn [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Q2 GDP Exceeded Expectations - GDP Data: The annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value of the US Q2 GDP was 3%, higher than the expected 2.4% and a significant rebound from - 0.5% in the previous quarter. Import growth dropped sharply to - 30.3%, export growth slightly declined to - 1.8%, consumption growth was 1.4%, private investment growth was - 15.6%, and government spending growth was 0.4%. Net exports contributed the most to the growth. The core PCE price index in Q1 fell from 3.5% to 2.5%, slightly higher than expected [3][9] - Contribution to GDP Growth: Consumption, fixed investment, inventory, net exports, and government spending contributed 0.98%, 0.08%, - 3.17%, 4.99%, and 0.08% respectively to the 3% GDP growth [3][18] - Personal Consumption: Both goods and services consumption showed a slight recovery. Goods consumption growth rose from 0.1% in Q1 to 2.2%, with durable and non - durable goods growing by 3.7% and 1.3% respectively. Service consumption remained resilient, with only housing and transportation sub - items declining. Overall, Q2 consumer spending recovered slightly, but the growth rate was lower than last year [26] - Private Investment: In Q1, private investment dropped by 15.6% on an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly basis. Fixed investment growth was 0.4%, with residential and construction investment growth being negative. Equipment investment growth dropped to 4.8%, and enterprises began to reduce inventory [26] - Government Spending: The growth rate of government spending in Q2 rebounded to 0.4%. It is expected that the government spending will support the US economy in the second half of the year, with the planned bond issuance exceeding $1 trillion in Q3 and net borrowing of $590 billion in Q4 [28] - Inflation: The inflation level declined in Q2. The GDP deflator dropped to 2%, the PCE price index fell from 3.7% to 2.1%, and the core PCE rebounded marginally from 3.5% to 2.5%. The impact of tariffs on inflation has not been fully reflected [28] - Economic Outlook: Tariff disruptions to the real economy are easing, and the US economy remains resilient. As trade policy uncertainty decreases, corporate investment may recover in the second half of the year. The economic growth slightly exceeded expectations, giving the Fed no strong reason to cut rates. The probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 58.8%, and the future rate - cut path remains uncertain [4][31] 2. Investment Recommendations - The US has accelerated trade negotiations, reaching agreements with countries such as Japan and the EU before August 1st, with a 15% tariff level lower than previously threatened. The tariff suspension for China has been extended for another 90 days, keeping market risk appetite high. The Q2 GDP shows that the US economy is cooling moderately. The dollar index is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, the US Treasury yield will rise again, gold will continue to correct, and the US stock market will perform strongly. However, attention should be paid to the increased market volatility caused by the worse - than - expected economic downturn [5][32]