1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: The overall supply and demand of PX and PTA in Q1 are weaker than expected, with limited self - driving force before the Spring Festival. However, due to the expected tight supply - demand in Q2, the low - price support for PX is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with limited drive, with a short - term range of 7200 - 7600 and a long - term bullish view [1]. - **PTA**: Although the market is optimistic about the Q2 supply - demand, in the short term, with high valuation and weak reality, the drive is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the range of 5200 - 5500, and TA5 - 9 is recommended for low - position positive hedging in the medium term [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. In the near term, there is pressure on inventory accumulation, while in Q2, the supply is expected to shrink, and it is possible to reduce inventory. Strategies include EG5 - 9 positive hedging at low prices and holding the seller of put option EG2605 - P - 3800 [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains high, and demand decreases near the Spring Festival. The price of the spot is relatively firm. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PF processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, and it is advisable to shrink the spread when it is high [1]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: With the implementation of maintenance plans, the domestic supply is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. PR2603 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 6200, and the processing fee on the main PR contract is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Industry - The report does not provide a clear overall view, but shows price increases in some LPG futures contracts and changes in inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand for some export - oriented semi - steel tire enterprises is sufficient, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still significant pressure at the 16500 level [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply is still high, and the demand is mainly for fulfilling orders. The inventory decreased last week but is still high year - on - year. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is average. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains, with high inventory and weak demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of downstream procurement and price fluctuations [8]. - **PVC**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The supply - demand has not improved, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support has increased, and the policy support is insufficient. The disk is expected to fluctuate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the 4820 - 5000 range [8]. Urea Industry - The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price increased. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is average, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The urea factory's pre - Spring Festival order - receiving pressure is not significant. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the 1760 - 1820 range [9]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices continued to rise sharply. Affected by the winter storm in the US, production decreased, EIA data showed a decline in commercial inventory and a small increase in refined oil inventory. The production of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan recovered slowly, and the US had a tough stance on Iran. Short - term positive factors still exist, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [11]. Methanol Industry - The futures price fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level, and the spot was purchased on demand. The supply and demand in the methanol market are both weak. The inventory in the inland area decreased, but high production and pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance limited the rebound. The port inventory increased slightly, and the MTO demand was weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical risks [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded, but the port inventory increased unexpectedly. With the improvement of disproportionation profit, some devices are expected to restart, and the import is expected to increase. The price is expected to face pressure at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. - **Styrene**: The load remains high under high profit, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to face pressure at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP are strong, driven by capital and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand and inventory reduction, with low upstream inventory and strong price - holding intention. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved by maintenance; for PE, the pressure on standard products increases, and the downstream demand enters the off - season. Attention should be paid to spot transactions, inventory, and macro - sentiment [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price increased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. The cash - flow of some products changed, such as POY150/48 cash - flow decreased by 9.5% [1]. - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (March) increased by 1.23%, WTI crude (March) increased by 1.31%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, etc. [1]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6%, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.8%, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6.1%, etc. [1]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA05 - TA09 spread decreased by 62.5%, PTA spot processing fee increased by 4.8%, etc. [1]. - **MEG - related**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 5.7%, MEG port inventory increased by 7.9%, etc. [1]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased, and the spreads such as PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 changed [2]. - **LPG Outer - market Prices**: FEI swap M1 and M2 contracts, CP swap M1 and M2 contracts all decreased [2]. - **LPG Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53%, LPG port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36% [2]. - **LPG Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, the PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81%, etc. [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 0.63%, the basis decreased by 15.49%, the price of Thai standard mixed glue increased by 0.66%, etc. [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.35%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.40%, 5 - 9 spread increased by 23.08% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in November decreased by 9.39%, the production of Indonesia decreased by 2.58%, the production of China increased by 20.88%, etc. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed, and the tire production and export volume in December increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, the futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE decreased by 2.49%, etc. [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass prices remained unchanged, glass2605 and glass2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 1.79% [7]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash prices remained unchanged, soda2605 and soda2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 7.14% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the weekly production decreased by 0.46%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.20%, etc. [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.38%, the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.16%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 0.43% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate showed different trends [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 0.7%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, etc. [8]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB Middle East port price decreased by 1.4%, export profit increased by 0.6% [8]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 4.8%, FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based price decreased by 1.7%, export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4%, the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 15.0%, etc. [8]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.3%, the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained unchanged, the printing and dyeing industry operating rate decreased by 3.8% [8]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 4.5%, the profile operating rate increased by 5.4%, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.5% [8]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory: Social and Factory Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory warehouse inventory increased by 5.5%, the Shandong inventory decreased by 0.4%, the PVC upstream factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.9%, the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea Industry - **Futures Revenue Prices**: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts of urea increased, and the methanol main contract increased by 1.52% [9]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.67%, 05 - 09 spread increased by 31.82%, UR - MA main contract spread decreased by 6.16% [9]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 0.99%, the short - position of the top 20 increased by 6.89% [9]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces, thermal coal pit - mouth, and port prices remained unchanged, and the synthetic ammonia price decreased by 0.09% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, etc., showed different changes [9]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi remained unchanged [9]. - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangdong changed [9]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine, compound fertilizers, etc., remained unchanged, and the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 1.35%, the price of sulfur decreased by 1.50% [9]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 2.64%, the coal - based urea daily production increased by 3.92%, the gas - based urea daily production decreased by 4.90%, etc. [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent increased by 1.23%, WTI increased by 1.31%, SC increased by 1.47%, and the spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 1.45%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.75%, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.08%, and the spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc., changed [11]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 and MA2609 prices increased, MA59 spread decreased by 16.00%, Taicang basis decreased by 28.57%, etc. [13]. - **Methanol Outer - market Prices**: The lowest CFR China price decreased by 0.10% [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the social inventory increased by 0.05%, and the port inventory increased by 1.00% [13]. - **Methanol Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, the northwest enterprise sales - production ratio decreased by 3.28%, the external MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56%, etc. [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude and WTI crude prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.5%, etc. [15]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price increased by 1.3%, EB2603 and EB2604 prices increased, EB basis (03) decreased by 14.3%, etc. [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flows**: The cash - flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, etc., changed [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc. [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **L2605, L2609, PP2605, PP2609 Prices**: The prices of these contracts increased [17]. - **Spreads**: L59 spread decreased by 54.84%, PP59 spread remained unchanged, LP05 spread decreased by 0.53% [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The East China PP拉丝, North China LLDPE spot prices increased [17]. - **Basis**: The North China LL basis decreased by 18.75%, the East China pp basis remained unchanged [17]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of East China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, etc., changed [17]. - **PE Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [17]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, the PE social inventory increased by

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The heavy oil crack spread can be taken profit, and crude oil can be bought on dips in the shale oil break - even cost range [2] - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern will improve marginally next year. Although there are still short - term negative pressures, it has the feasibility of buying on dips due to the geopolitical instability in Iran [4] - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window, and with the expectation of improved start - up at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so it should be short - allocated on rallies [5] - The chemical sector may fluctuate or decline after the rise. The seasonality of rubber is weak, and it is necessary to guard against the decline of RU. Currently, a neutral - bearish mindset is adopted, with short - term trading on the disk and quick entry and exit. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling mindset should be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and short - selling RU2609 [10] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations, rush - to - export, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC. In the medium term, the idea of short - allocating on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts in the industry [14] - The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [17] - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for the PE valuation to decline. In the medium term, with no further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [20] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatches. It is advisable to buy on dips the spread between PP5 and PP9 [23] - Currently, PX maintains a high load, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term pattern is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [25] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. In the short term, it is necessary to guard against the risk of processing fee correction, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities and grasping the rhythm [30] - In the industrial fundamentals of ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory - building and high start - up. The valuation is currently high compared to the same period, and in the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further production cuts in China [32] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On January 29, 2026, the main INE crude oil futures closed up 11.20 yuan/barrel, a 2.49% increase, at 460.30 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.23% increase, at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 73.00 yuan/ton, a 2.31% increase, at 3232.00 yuan/ton [1] Methanol - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 33 yuan/ton, 7.5 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 12.5 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract increased by 33.00 yuan/ton to 2339 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 65 yuan [3] Urea - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Hubei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 49 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1799 yuan/ton [5] Rubber - On January 29, 2026, the chemical sector oscillated downward, with butadiene rubber and natural rubber (RU) falling. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, the expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and the expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory at East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and the seasonality usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes that the macro - expectations are uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season [7] PVC - On January 29, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 2 yuan to 4913 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 213 (- 12) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+5) yuan/ton. The overall PVC start - up rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The downstream start - up rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [12] Pure Benzene & Styrene - On January 29, 2026, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5960 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6130 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7785 yuan/ton, an increase of 136 yuan/ton; the basis was 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 69.63%, a decrease of 1.23%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted start - up rate of the three S products was 42.40%, an increase of 0.49%. The PS start - up rate was 57.30%, a decrease of 0.10%, the EPS start - up rate was 58.71%, an increase of 4.65%, and the ABS start - up rate was 66.80%, a decrease of 3.00% [16] Polyethylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6967 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6825 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [19] Polypropylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6778 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6655 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The basis was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 36 yuan/ton [21][22] PX - On January 29, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 106 yuan to 7392 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 21 dollars to 924 dollars. The basis was 37 yuan (+52), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 124 yuan (- 34). The PX load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period; the Asian load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In January, the export of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle ten - days was 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase from the previous month [24] PTA - On January 29, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 112 yuan to 5370 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 10 yuan to 5235 yuan. The basis was - 80 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 23 was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 94 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan to 521 yuan [27] Ethylene Glycol - On January 29, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 32 yuan to 3970 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 8 yuan to 3835 yuan. The basis was - 118 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 96 yuan (- 4). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 14.7 tons, and the East China departure was 1.51 tons on January 27. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based production profit was - 840 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 534 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 352 yuan. The ethylene price decreased to 700 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 530 yuan [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The valuation shows that the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are simultaneously contracting, with inventory accumulation. The demand side continues to be in a weak state. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices with a production history of over 20 years. Strategy-wise, there is an opportunity for PP to fluctuate on the short - side, and PE can be bought within a certain range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to the repair of market demand expectations after the alleviation of macro - tense emotions. However, the OPEC+ production increase plan and Sino - US trade uncertainties pose upward resistance. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's previous maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and its downstream price transmission is not smooth. The short - term trend of pure benzene fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Styrene's supply - demand expectation is weak, but it is supported in the short - term by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, with limited upside [44]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side has high maintenance losses in July but there is a restart expectation. The demand side is restricted by the traditional off - season. The port side is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. In the short - term, the cost is lifted by coal, and the 09 contract's fluctuation range moves up. It is advisable to buy the 01 contract at low prices [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the short - term macro - disturbance is intense, and it is recommended to close previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the short - term trading logic is mainly dominated by macro - emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. PTA may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Short - fiber has no obvious short - term driver. Bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation [71]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is in a range - bound pattern. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The future price breakthrough depends on the substantial warming of the demand side [78]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, L2601's closing price rose from 7346 to 7436, with a 1.23% increase [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.99% to 50.3 tons, while PP enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% to 58.1 tons [2]. - **开工率**: PE device's starting rate increased by 0.97% to 79.0%, and PP device's starting rate decreased by 0.4% to 77.0% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On July 25, Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased compared to July 24. For example, Brent rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 0.98% increase [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The rise in oil prices is due to the alleviation of macro - tense emotions and the improvement of demand expectations, but there are still supply - side uncertainties [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products showed different trends. For example, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 0.2% to 5980 yuan per ton [44]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 4.3% to 17.10 tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 8.8% to 15.07 tons [44]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.7% to 77.4%, and the domestic pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.3% to 78.1% [44]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, methanol futures and spot prices increased compared to July 21. For example, MA2601's closing price rose from 2482 to 2550, with a 2.74% increase [47]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.55% to 33.983 tons, and methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 72.6 tons [47]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise starting rate decreased by 1.01% to 70.37, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device starting rate increased by 0.56% to 75.96 [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of caustic soda and PVC - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2593.8 yuan per ton [50]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry starting rate increased by 1.3% to 86.3, and the PVC total starting rate decreased by 0.1% to 75.0 [50]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 13.8% to 21.3 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.7% to 36.8 tons [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (September) rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 1.0% increase [71]. - **开工率**: The Asian PX starting rate remained unchanged at 73.6%, and the PTA starting rate remained unchanged at 79.7% [71]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of urea futures contracts increased compared to July 23. For example, the 01 contract's closing price rose from 1779 to 1796, with a 0.96% increase [75]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 85.88 tons, and the domestic urea port inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.30 tons [78]. - **开工率**: The urea production factory starting rate increased by 1.26% to 83.21 [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - **EIA Data**: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - **开工率**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - **开工率**: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].