徐绍祖（联系人） PE农膜订单好于预期， 高产量压力暂时缓解 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/22 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场止跌后大幅反弹，大宗商品市场跟涨。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（成本＞现货＞期货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨1.62%，Brent原油上涨1.28%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-4.52%，乙烯下跌-0.47%，丙烯上涨2.94%， 丙烷上涨2.52%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.77%，环比上涨0.06%，同比去年上涨2.17%，较5年同期下降-7.82%。PP产能利用率77.71%，环比下降- 3.85%，同 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has also stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term rebound in the cost side has slightly boosted the price trend of propylene. The supply side remains relatively loose due to some plant shutdowns and others ramping up production. The demand side shows that downstream cost pressure has eased, but downstream procurement is cautious. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with limited upward drivers but also limited downside space at the current low price level. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions on propane supply and the start - stop status of PDH plants [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6084 yuan/ton (+49), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 9 yuan/ton (-49), and the North China basis is - 74 yuan/ton (-49) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 220 US dollars/ton (-18), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 136 US dollars/ton (-7) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 396 yuan/ton (+127) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 39% (-1.31%), with a production profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 68% (-4%), with a production profit of - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol capacity utilization is 90% (+2%), with a production profit of 12 yuan/ton (+0); octanol capacity utilization is 92% (-4%), with a production profit of - 199 yuan/ton (-100); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 75% (-8%), with a production profit of 1037 yuan/ton (-125); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 79% (+0%), with a production profit of - 516 yuan/ton (-25); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78% (+0%), with a production profit of - 416 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see; the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the dynamics of PDH plants - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views - The softening of the US President's trade stance boosts global risk appetite, and the short - term macro upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US relations. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends, with some suggesting cautious long - positions and others suggesting cautious waiting and watching. [2] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas, the softening of the US President's trade stance boosts the US dollar index and global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans are introduced, increasing policy support. The market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US relations, and the short - term macro upward drive has strengthened. [2] - For assets: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position; bonds are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; for commodities, black metals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are adjusted, with cautious long - positions; energy and chemicals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are strongly volatile at high levels, with cautious long - positions. [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and semiconductor components, the domestic stock market has fallen significantly. However, economic growth acceleration, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and domestic policy support boost risk appetite. The market focuses on policies and Sino - US relations, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell last Friday. With the softening of the US President's trade stance, global risk aversion declined, and gold prices dropped after hitting a record high. In the short term, precious metals are volatile at high levels, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - positions can be held or reduced on rallies, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is recommended. [3] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, with low trading volume. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts and expectations of policy benefits support the market. Fundamentally, demand has changed little, inventory has decreased, and supply is likely to decline. In the short term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound. [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices were weak last Friday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits, iron ore demand is likely to decline. Supply has changed, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices. [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were flat last Friday, and the futures prices were volatile. The decline in steel production has reduced ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are weak, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased. Silicon iron prices are stable, and the market for some raw materials is tight. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to remain range - bound. [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro factors include the easing of trade tensions and the impact of US bank credit issues. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices, but it is temporary, and future supply is expected to increase. Domestic copper inventory is high, and demand is facing challenges. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose and then fell last Friday. The market is affected by bank credit issues. Aluminum inventory has decreased, but demand is weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound. [9] Tin - On the supply side, Indonesian policies and mining approvals affect supply, and the end of maintenance in a large Chinese smelter increases production. On the demand side, demand is weak in traditional and emerging industries. High prices suppress demand, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [10] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The decline in spot market benchmarks and premiums has led to a fall in futures prices. The return of Asia - Pacific procurement is the focus, and Russian supply is a risk point. In the short term, there may be a price rebound, but the long - term outlook is bearish. [11] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are following oil prices and remaining low and volatile. The basis is low, and there is pressure on factory inventory accumulation. Profit has recovered slightly, and supply pressure is increasing. The future trend depends on oil prices and inventory. [11] PX - Affected by falling oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices are falling. Although PTA's high - level operation provides some support, PX is expected to remain weak and volatile. [11] PTA - Downstream demand is weak, and processing fees are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and the basis is decreasing. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. [12] Ethylene Glycol - Inventory has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain low, with limited room for rebound. [12] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber is adjusting with the polyester sector and is expected to remain weak and volatile. The improvement in terminal orders is limited, and the future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] Methanol - Short - term supply has decreased, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, traditional demand is weak, and there are plans to restart production, so prices are expected to be volatile. [13] PP - Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Falling oil prices weaken cost support. The future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] LLDPE - Supply has increased, and inventory has accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, and cost support is weakening. The market is under short - term pressure. [14] Urea - Daily production is stable. Industrial demand is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking. The market may be stagnant and then rise slightly, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. [14] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA reports are delayed, and Sino - US soybean trade concerns persist. Domestic consumption provides some support. Brazilian and Argentine soybean conditions are good. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and Sino - US trade is the key factor. [15] Soybean Meal - Domestic oil mill supply has recovered, but inventory pressure remains. Oil mill profit is in deficit, increasing the willingness to support prices. There is a supply gap risk before the arrival of South American soybeans next year. After the oversold situation, the market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate. [15] Oils - For rapeseed oil, the easing of China - Canada relations reduces risk appetite, and the market is expected to be volatile before trade news is clear. Palm oil supply and demand are stable, and prices are supported. Soybean oil is in the peak season, and the price is stable. [15][16] Corn - Corn from Northeast and North China is on the market, causing a seasonal impact. The current price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the price decline. [16] Pigs - After the festival, the production and inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low. There is support from fat - to - lean price differences and some restocking, and the supply may decrease in late October, stabilizing prices. However, significant price recovery is difficult without a large increase in demand. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It evaluates the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for each commodity based on supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic factors, and industry - specific events. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. US PMI data exceeded expectations while European PMI data was weak. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and Glencore stated that the mountain ISA smelter was difficult to continue operating. Demand showed some resilience, with premiums for flat - water copper in East and South China at 70 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the London structure at a 392 - dollar back [1]. - Trading strategy: Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 20,365 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 435 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2,559 dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: LME has forced traders holding near - month contract positions exceeding available inventory to reduce their positions to limit spot liquidity risk. Aluminum ingots have seen inventory accumulation (15,000 tons) for the first time since June. It is necessary to observe whether the inventory accumulation is continuous, and aluminum prices may come under pressure to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 2,906 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 288 yuan/ton. On June 20, India had a transaction of 30,000 tons at a price of 366 dollars/ton (the previous transaction was also at 366 dollars/ton) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production capacity continued to be released, and the operating capacity increased. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity was stable [1]. - Trading strategy: The alumina futures price encountered resistance when rising. In the medium term, the pressure of production capacity release and inventory accumulation persists, and the price may continue to operate at a low level [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 09 contract closed at 7,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 303,119 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 439 lots to 54,184 lots [1]. - Fundamentals: Last week, spot prices stopped falling. On the supply side, there was no significant contraction, and the number of open furnaces increased by 5. Weekly inventory decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and after the market decline, the visible inventory of warehouse receipts turned into invisible inventory. On the demand side, the production of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared to May, and there are plans for复产 this week. The production of organic silicon was relatively stable, and the decline in industrial chain prices widened. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [1]. - Trading strategy: If the futures price continues to rise, it may face hedging pressure, and the rebound of the market may be limited. Before there is an effective reduction in actual supply during the flood season, maintain a bearish view. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level. Consider shorting lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to the on - site sentiment at the Leshan industry conference [1]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 08 contract closed at 30,615 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 10,054 lots to 78,183 lots. The 11 contract closed at 30,030 yuan/ton. Today, the warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged at 2,600 lots (7,800 tons) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production changed little, and the industry inventory decreased slightly. There are still expectations of复产 in the future, and the market is pessimistic about the joint production cuts by leading enterprises. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, which is related to the production scheduling of some enterprises' previous orders in the third quarter due to limited quotas. The expected production schedule for the third quarter is still declining quarter - on - quarter. According to the balance sheet, inventory will start to accumulate in July [1]. - Trading strategy: The industry's复产 plan exceeded expectations. In the short term, it is recommended to go short on the 07 contract on rallies. Pay attention to the industry's production cut plan [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined, affected by favorable weather in the production area and the sharp drop in crude oil prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply from South America was abundant in the near term, and the growth of US soybeans was normal in the long term. On the demand side, South America was the main influence in the short term, US soybean exports were seasonally weak, but the US biodiesel policy was beneficial to the demand for soybean crushing [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate strongly; in China, although there will be a large arrival of soybeans later, demand will also remain high. The domestic market will follow the international cost side [2]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2509 contract corrected, and the spot price of corn declined slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: This year, the supply - demand situation has tightened marginally, and the grain rights have shifted to channels, increasing the bargaining power of channels. The expected import volume of substitutes will decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. The wheat support - price purchase has boosted the wheat price, which will also drive up the corn price. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Trading strategy: With the reduction of remaining grain and the wheat support - price purchase, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and Malaysia's production in May increased by 5% month - on - month. On the demand side, the exports from the production area improved month - on - month. ITS showed that exports，from June 1 - 20 increased by 14% month - on - month [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the volatility of palm oil will increase, affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and other factors. The trading difficulty has increased. Pay attention to crude oil and biodiesel policies [2]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2508 contract performed strongly, and the spot price was stable [2]. - Fundamentals: Due to breeding losses, the culling of old hens is expected to decrease temporarily. Supply remains high, and the hot and humid weather is not conducive to egg storage, but low prices stimulate demand. With strong supply and weak demand and cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Trading strategy: With sufficient supply and cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate [2]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig 2509 contract performed strongly, and the spot price of pigs rose [2]. - Fundamentals: Large - scale farms have been continuously reducing the weight of pigs recently, and the pressure to sell at the end of the month has decreased. Small - scale farmers, on the contrary, continue to hold back pigs to gain weight. At the end of the month, the supply from the breeding side will decrease, and the entry of second - fattening will support the price. The pig price is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium term, the supply will continue to increase, and the center of the pig price will gradually decline. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of enterprises and the trend of second - fattening [2]. - Trading strategy: With reduced supply at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Energy Chemicals PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 4,897, down 0.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: PVC was driven up by the rise in crude oil prices and then retreated. On the supply side, the plants of Wanhua, Bohua, etc. are gradually being put into production, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The upstream operating rate is 80%, and maintenance has gradually ended. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing. On June 19, the new sample of PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month and 37.97% year - on - year. India has postponed the BIS anti - dumping investigation until December, which is beneficial to exports. The carbide price is 2,400 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the future. The spot price has stopped rising, with 4,800 yuan in East China and 4,870 yuan in Inner Mongolia [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. Since there is no driving force for a rebound, consider selling call options above 4,950 [4]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX is 899 dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,430 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 5,260 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 264 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: On the cost side of PX, domestic production still has maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shandong Weilian, and the load increase is limited. Overseas, a 400,000 - ton plant of South Korea's GS has restarted, a 500,000 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos has unexpectedly shut down, plants in Iran and Israel have shut down, the restart of a Saudi plant has been postponed, and Vietnam's NSRP has reduced production. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level. For PTA, Hengli Dalian and Fuhai Chuang are implementing maintenance plans, Yisheng New Materials has briefly reduced production, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant has restarted. Overall, the supply has decreased, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. After the peripheral factors drove the market last Friday, there was concentrated replenishment at the terminal; since the weekend, downstream enterprises have mainly been digesting their stocks, with only rigid demand following up. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, both PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern [4]. - Trading strategy: Continue to hold long positions in PX. PTA has tight short - term liquidity but large medium - and long - term surplus pressure. Maintain the view of shorting the processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,007, up 0.1% [4]. - Fundamentals: The glass trading volume has been mixed, and the average price has been stable. Downstream demand is gradually improving. On the supply side, 4 production lines will resume production in July, and the supply growth rate is expected to increase by 1.2% month - on - month. The daily melting volume of glass is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8.8% year - on - year. Inventory has unexpectedly accumulated. On June 19, the upstream inventory was 69,887,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.29% month - on - month and 16.82% year - on - year. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises are 9.8 days, the operating rate is about 48%, which is lower than in previous years. In terms of valuation, losses have increased, with a large loss of 195 yuan for the natural - gas route, a profit of about 85 yuan for the coal - gas route, and a loss of 105 yuan for the petroleum - coke route. The spot prices are 1,120 yuan in North China, 1,020 yuan in Central China, 1,230 yuan in East China, and 1,280 yuan in South China [4]. - Trading strategy: The downward trend of glass prices is hard to reverse. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [4]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,597 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 78 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Plants are restarting in a concentrated manner, increasing the supply. Pay attention to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan at the end of the month. Overseas, plants in Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia have restarted, increasing the import supply. The inventory at East China ports is around 620,000 tons, at a historically low level. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, the supply - demand situation of MEG has weakened [4]. - Trading strategy: With the easing of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to take short positions [4]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,173, down 0.3% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the supply is gradually recovering. On the supply side, the Lianyungang Soda plant has reached full production, and the upstream operating rate of soda ash is 86%. Summer maintenance has gradually ended, and Qinghai Fatou Soda and Xuzhou Fengcheng Soda have maintenance plans this month. Inventory has accumulated at a high level. On June 23, the upstream inventory was 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from last Thursday, a rise of 1.69%. The number of days of pending orders for upstream manufacturers is 11 days. The inventory at delivery warehouses is 311,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,000 tons, the inventory days are 30.5 days, and the photovoltaic glass production line of China National Building Materials Yixing has blocked the kiln mouth. The soda ash price has changed little, with the delivered price around 1,250 yuan, the futures - spot quotation in Shahe at 09 contract + 20, and the factory - pickup price in Inner Mongolia at 09 contract - 160 [4][5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand of soda ash is weak on both sides, and it will oscillate at the bottom. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 for soda ash options [5].