Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn and soybean production forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [1] - The report highlights adjustments in global agricultural supply and demand, with specific increases in corn, soybean, wheat, and rice production and consumption [5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2025/26 year is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 1.02% from previous estimates, driven by higher yields and increased harvested area [8] - China's corn production is expected to rise to 301 million tons, a 2.12% increase, while consumption remains stable at 321 million tons [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected at 425.68 million tons, a 0.74% increase, with Brazil's production rising significantly due to favorable weather [19] - China's soybean production is expected to decline to 20.90 million tons, with consumption decreasing slightly to 133 million tons [25] Wheat - Global wheat production is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, a 0.52% increase, with demand also rising, leading to a higher stock-to-use ratio of 33.77% [32] - China's wheat production is expected to be stable at 140 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio projected to rise to 84.36% [37] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted to 541 million tons, with a slight increase in demand, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 35.12% [43] - China's rice production is expected to increase to 146 million tons, with consumption also rising, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.46% [43]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season remain at 290 million bushels, and the US soybean stock-to-use ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report on US soybean yield and exports [7]. - There is no obvious weather-driven impact on South American crops in the short term. Brazil has started harvesting. Given the prediction of a bumper Brazilian soybean crop, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums [8]. - The restart of imported soybean auctions in China brings an expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation. Recently, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments in the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China-Canada trade policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data on Spot Basis - On January 9th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 454, down 4; in Tianjin it was 414, down 4; in Rizhao it was 374; in Zhangjiagang it was 364, down 4; in Dongguan it was 354, down 4; in Zhanjiang it was 394, down 4; in Fangcheng it was 404, down 14. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 85, up 12 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 450 in 20/21, 218 in 21/22. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 657, up 9. The futures spread (main contract) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 448, up 24 [10]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 111.00 cents per bushel, up 3. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9513. The import soybean futures gross profit in Brazil showed different trends in different months [10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report shows the inventory trends of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises from 2018 to 2025 [10][11]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 - The report presents the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills in 2025 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report was less bullish than expected, leading to an expected correction in the futures market. The poor profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing indicates that the domestic futures market is expected to follow the trend of the US market. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement news from the US and the trend of new - crop basis [5]. - The overall investment view is that the market will be in a state of oscillation. The trading strategy suggests a unilateral oscillation approach and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage. Key factors to monitor include policies and weather [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and decreased ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels, showing less - than - expected bullishness [5]. - CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% the previous week and 66.1% the same period last year, with a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather expected in southern Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [5]. - From November to December, domestic soybean meal inventories are expected to decline, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [5]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the expected supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China will shrink. Policy changes should be monitored [5]. - The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. Demand - For livestock and poultry, short - term high inventory levels are expected to be maintained, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect future supply [5]. - Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio [5]. - Recently, downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, while提货 performance has been good. Downstream transactions and提货 of rapeseed meal have been cautious [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December [5]. - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [5]. - Domestic rapeseed inventories have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories have been continuously decreasing [5]. Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [5]. Profit - The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor [5]. - The profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a moderately high valuation [5]. Macro and Policy - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US. The 24% additional tariff rate on US imports will continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained. Currently, the tariff rate for China's soybean imports from the US is 13% [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - In November, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 period decreased [34]. - The November report showed a decline in the rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level [85]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [55]. - This week, no US soybean export sales data were released [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has revised down the global corn production forecast while increasing the consumption forecast, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][7] - The report highlights stable production and consumption forecasts for China's corn and soybean, with slight adjustments in global supply and demand dynamics [4][10][23] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2024/25 year is adjusted down to 128.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.16% from previous estimates, while consumption is projected to rise to 128.9 million tons [7][10] - The global corn stock-to-use ratio is forecasted to decline to 21.82%, reflecting tighter supply conditions [7] - In China, corn production is expected to remain stable at 29.5 million tons, with consumption also stable at 32.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 55.16% [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted at 42.5 million tons, down 0.12%, with consumption slightly reduced to 42.3 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 29.25% [17][23] - China's soybean production remains stable at 21 million tons, with imports and consumption also unchanged, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 32.62% [23] Wheat - Global wheat production is projected to increase to 81.6 million tons, with consumption rising to 81.4 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 32.42% [29] - In China, wheat production is expected to hold steady at 14 million tons, with a stable stock-to-use ratio of 84.31% [35] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted down to 54.1 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise to 54.2 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 34.54% [39] - China's rice production and consumption forecasts remain stable, with a stock-to-use ratio of 71.23% [39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Short - term corn futures prices will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to participate in short - term trading. There are currently no trend - driving factors for long - term price trends [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Judgment - Market Focus: The impact of the previous tariff event has faded, and the market's focus has returned to the corn fundamentals and policy market. The increase in the release of old grain and the reduction in procurement by the China Grain Reserves Corporation have dragged down market sentiment [7]. - External Market Impact: The USDA's March supply - demand report shows a decrease in global corn production and imports in 2024/25, with a 1.29% drop in total supply compared to 2023/24. The global ending inventory has also decreased significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio is at its lowest since 2013/14. However, the US corn inventory data is higher than expected, which has pressured prices. Recently, the US corn price has rebounded due to the tariff event, supporting the import cost [7]. - Inventory: As of March 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was about 5.06 million tons, with a high proportion of contract grain and slow inventory depletion. The corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 2 million tons, and enterprises maintained on - demand procurement [7]. - Profit: The downstream deep - processing profit is poor due to the increase in raw material prices, and the profit of pig farming is also at a low level. As of March 21, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 49.22 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 42.39 yuan per head [7]. - Basis: Last week, the futures price of the corn main contract declined under pressure, and the spot price also decreased, narrowing the basis [7]. - Structure: The current futures price structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [7][18]. - Technical Analysis: The Dalian corn futures May contract is expected to rebound in the short term but may face resistance and decline again. The corn price has shown obvious signs of a phased peak [7]. 3.2 Corn Inventory, Price and Import - Port Prices: In the northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level is limited, and traders are holding grain for higher prices. The morning collection volume at the northern ports is insufficient, and inventory pressure has led to a slight price cut by traders. The price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the southern ports, the inventory of domestic corn is increasing, and the market is sluggish, but high arrival costs support traders' quotes. The price at Shekou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [9]. - Imported Corn: In January and February 2025, China's corn imports decreased significantly, possibly due to a domestic corn harvest and trade - war tariffs. After the tariff increase, the volume of US corn imports is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 Profit - Downstream Starch Processing Profit: The increase in corn prices has squeezed the downstream processing profit. As of March 22, the weekly national corn processing volume decreased by 1.74% week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 1.12% week - on - week [14]. - Downstream Pig Farming Profit: The pig production capacity reduction is slow, and the profit of pig farming is at a low level. As of March 21, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 49.22 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 42.39 yuan per head [14]. 3.4 Spread and Structure - The corn futures price showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend last week. The USDA report in March indicates a year - on - year decline in production and ending inventory. The domestic spring grain - selling pressure is lower than in previous years, and the impact of imported corn and substitute grains on the market has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern is improving, but policy - grain release has affected market sentiment. The current futures price structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [18].