Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has revised down the global corn production forecast while increasing the consumption forecast, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][7] - The report highlights stable production and consumption forecasts for China's corn and soybean, with slight adjustments in global supply and demand dynamics [4][10][23] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2024/25 year is adjusted down to 128.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.16% from previous estimates, while consumption is projected to rise to 128.9 million tons [7][10] - The global corn stock-to-use ratio is forecasted to decline to 21.82%, reflecting tighter supply conditions [7] - In China, corn production is expected to remain stable at 29.5 million tons, with consumption also stable at 32.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 55.16% [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted at 42.5 million tons, down 0.12%, with consumption slightly reduced to 42.3 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 29.25% [17][23] - China's soybean production remains stable at 21 million tons, with imports and consumption also unchanged, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 32.62% [23] Wheat - Global wheat production is projected to increase to 81.6 million tons, with consumption rising to 81.4 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 32.42% [29] - In China, wheat production is expected to hold steady at 14 million tons, with a stable stock-to-use ratio of 84.31% [35] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted down to 54.1 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise to 54.2 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 34.54% [39] - China's rice production and consumption forecasts remain stable, with a stock-to-use ratio of 71.23% [39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Short - term corn futures prices will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to participate in short - term trading. There are currently no trend - driving factors for long - term price trends [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Judgment - Market Focus: The impact of the previous tariff event has faded, and the market's focus has returned to the corn fundamentals and policy market. The increase in the release of old grain and the reduction in procurement by the China Grain Reserves Corporation have dragged down market sentiment [7]. - External Market Impact: The USDA's March supply - demand report shows a decrease in global corn production and imports in 2024/25, with a 1.29% drop in total supply compared to 2023/24. The global ending inventory has also decreased significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio is at its lowest since 2013/14. However, the US corn inventory data is higher than expected, which has pressured prices. Recently, the US corn price has rebounded due to the tariff event, supporting the import cost [7]. - Inventory: As of March 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was about 5.06 million tons, with a high proportion of contract grain and slow inventory depletion. The corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 2 million tons, and enterprises maintained on - demand procurement [7]. - Profit: The downstream deep - processing profit is poor due to the increase in raw material prices, and the profit of pig farming is also at a low level. As of March 21, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 49.22 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 42.39 yuan per head [7]. - Basis: Last week, the futures price of the corn main contract declined under pressure, and the spot price also decreased, narrowing the basis [7]. - Structure: The current futures price structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [7][18]. - Technical Analysis: The Dalian corn futures May contract is expected to rebound in the short term but may face resistance and decline again. The corn price has shown obvious signs of a phased peak [7]. 3.2 Corn Inventory, Price and Import - Port Prices: In the northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level is limited, and traders are holding grain for higher prices. The morning collection volume at the northern ports is insufficient, and inventory pressure has led to a slight price cut by traders. The price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the southern ports, the inventory of domestic corn is increasing, and the market is sluggish, but high arrival costs support traders' quotes. The price at Shekou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [9]. - Imported Corn: In January and February 2025, China's corn imports decreased significantly, possibly due to a domestic corn harvest and trade - war tariffs. After the tariff increase, the volume of US corn imports is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 Profit - Downstream Starch Processing Profit: The increase in corn prices has squeezed the downstream processing profit. As of March 22, the weekly national corn processing volume decreased by 1.74% week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 1.12% week - on - week [14]. - Downstream Pig Farming Profit: The pig production capacity reduction is slow, and the profit of pig farming is at a low level. As of March 21, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 49.22 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 42.39 yuan per head [14]. 3.4 Spread and Structure - The corn futures price showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend last week. The USDA report in March indicates a year - on - year decline in production and ending inventory. The domestic spring grain - selling pressure is lower than in previous years, and the impact of imported corn and substitute grains on the market has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern is improving, but policy - grain release has affected market sentiment. The current futures price structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [18].