Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's currency policy, emphasizing the transition towards a strong renminbi (RMB) as a key element in establishing a financial powerhouse by 2025, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar and enhance the RMB's international status [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Policy - Over the past 30 years, China's exchange rate system has undergone significant changes approximately every decade, starting with the 1994 unification of exchange rates, followed by a fixed peg to the US dollar until 2005, and then a market-based adjustment approach [1]. - From 2005 to 2015, the RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of 26%, while the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) rose by 46% [8]. - Post-2015, the RMB has exhibited more two-way fluctuations, with the exchange rate generally oscillating between 6.25 and 7.35 against the dollar [8]. Group 2: Policy Directions for a Strong RMB - The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference highlighted the need to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, placing "strong currency" at the forefront of its core elements [3][9]. - The government is expected to enhance policy coordination to elevate the RMB's international status, aiming to provide a viable alternative in the global monetary system [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and industrial integration to bolster the economic foundation necessary for a strong currency [3][15]. Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - Significant progress has been made in promoting the RMB as an international currency, with measures taken from 2010 to 2015 to increase its use in international trade settlements and the establishment of offshore RMB markets [19]. - By the end of 2015, the IMF included the RMB in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, marking a milestone in the RMB's internationalization [19]. - As of 2021, the RMB accounted for 2.8% of global foreign exchange reserves, with expectations to reach a more competitive level in the coming years [21][28]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The potential for RMB internationalization is largely constrained by the degree of openness of China's capital account, with expectations for gradual relaxation of capital flow controls while maintaining macroeconomic management [4][22]. - The government aims to balance the promotion of RMB internationalization with the management of associated risks, focusing on building a robust cross-border payment system to reduce reliance on the SWIFT network [28][29]. - The RMB's role in global trade and investment is anticipated to grow, particularly in transactions with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as China continues to diversify its trade and investment relationships [27].

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to maintain a moderate expansion in 2026, with a growth rate similar to the projected 3.4% for 2025, driven by strong global trade, declining inflation, and supportive monetary policies [2][3] - The growth engine is anticipated to shift towards investment, particularly in high-tech sectors like AI and semiconductors, as the "export rush" effect fades [2] - Major economies, including the US, are expected to see fiscal expansion, which will support growth [2] US Economic Forecast - The US economy is projected to accelerate from a growth rate of 2.0% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, fueled by strong business investment and potential tax cuts [3] - However, the labor market may remain weak in the short term, with unemployment rates expected to rise before improving later in the year [3] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's capacity for rate cuts in 2026 is expected to be limited, contrary to market expectations of multiple rate cuts, due to persistent inflation pressures [4][6] European Economic Projections - Europe's growth is forecasted to slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, avoiding recession but facing challenges from US tariffs and competition from China [6] - Despite the slowdown, consumer and labor markets in Europe are expected to remain resilient, supported by increased fiscal spending in Germany [6] Risks to Global Economy - The global economy faces multiple risks, including geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, and potential financial market bubbles, particularly concerning AI investments and cryptocurrencies [6] China Economic Transition - China's economic growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with a focus on "domestic demand-driven" and "innovation-driven" growth [7] - Exports are expected to maintain high growth but may contribute less to GDP due to diminishing "export rush" effects and potential trade frictions [7] - Investment is projected to increase slightly, with fiscal spending on infrastructure and a recovery in manufacturing investment [7][8] Monetary and Fiscal Policy in China - Macro policies in China are expected to remain supportive but not overly expansive, with a slight reduction in the fiscal deficit ratio [8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to be "moderately accommodative," with limited room for rate cuts [8] Strong Renminbi Policy - A "strong renminbi policy" has been established, focusing on enhancing the international status and credibility of the renminbi rather than merely pursuing currency appreciation [9][10] - Key pillars of this policy include improving productivity through innovation, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and expanding the use of renminbi in international trade and finance [10]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's Chief Economist for Greater China and North Asia, Ding Shuang, stated that China's "strong RMB policy" has taken shape, aiming to enhance the RMB's status in the international financial system and ultimately make it one of the leading currencies [1][4]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - The RMB internationalization process is expected to accelerate in the coming years, supported by macro and structural policies from China [4][5]. - China will emphasize innovation-driven growth and improve labor productivity to enhance economic resilience and growth potential [4][8]. - The country plans to strengthen financial infrastructure and expand the use of RMB in international trade, investment, and financing [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Transformation - China's economic strategy has shifted from short-term risk management to long-term economic transformation, focusing on improving labor productivity and fostering new growth engines [8][10]. - The trade surplus for China exceeded $1 trillion in the first 11 months, significantly supporting economic growth, with foreign trade contributing approximately 30% to GDP growth in the first three quarters [8][10]. - The service sector has shown stable growth, maintaining a growth rate of 5% or more [8]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Ding Shuang predicts that global economic growth will reach 3.4% in 2026, with a shift in growth drivers from consumption to investment [11][12]. - Investment in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and integrated circuits is expected to support economic growth [12]. - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2026, with inflation levels anticipated to be higher than in 2025 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's macroeconomic work has shifted from short-term risk response to a focus on medium- and long-term economic transformation [1][4] - The external environment for China's economy is expected to stabilize by 2026, allowing for a return to policies aimed at enhancing potential growth and fostering new drivers [3][4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, with an actual growth rate of approximately 4.6% [4] Group 2 - Inflation is expected to remain low, with the average CPI for 2026 estimated at around 0.6%, showing a mild recovery compared to 2025 [5] - Fiscal policy will continue to provide strong support, while monetary policy will remain moderately loose, focusing on coordination with fiscal efforts rather than significant rate cuts [5][9] Group 3 - Global economic growth is anticipated to remain stable in 2026, with a growth estimate of about 3.4% for 2025, continuing into 2026 [6] - The driving forces for global economic growth are expected to shift from consumption to investment, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [6][7] Group 4 - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to continue into 2026, with its effects expected to take at least 12 months to materialize [12] - The real estate market in China is undergoing adjustments, with key indicators such as housing sales and land transactions being closely monitored [13][14] Group 5 - Foreign investment in Chinese equity assets is increasing, driven by the return on investment potential, while there has been a net outflow in the bond market due to low yields [15] - AI investments are expected to have a direct impact on GDP growth, although the extent and speed of productivity enhancement remain uncertain [16]