Group 1 - Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, but attention is needed for potential strength conversion on Thursday, with support levels at 3375 and 3350 [4][5] - The trading range for gold on Wednesday was between 3393 and 3373, with a peak at around 3400 during the US session, aligning with expectations [2][4] - The technical analysis indicates that the daily cycle is nearing its peak, and if the daily candle closes bearish, a strong weakness conversion is likely, potentially leading to a drop to 3350 [5][6] Group 2 - Silver experienced a decline but maintained a bullish trend, with a trading range between 39 and 38; a drop below 38 could lead to further declines [6] - The domestic gold market remains strong, with the Shanghai gold contract holding around 785 and the Rongtong gold contract around 778, indicating potential for further gains if they stay above 780 and 772 respectively [5][6] - The international crude oil market showed an upward trend, with a support level at 62.5 and a peak at 64.2, suggesting continued bullish momentum [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is entering a strong phase of transition, with a focus on potential strength and weakness shifts in the market [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold continues to maintain a slow bullish trend, showing a fluctuating performance in the Asian and European sessions, and rising to around 3393 during the US session, indicating a clear bullish trend [3][5] - The key levels to watch are 3400 on the upside and 3365 on the downside, with a potential for deep adjustments if 3365 is breached [5][6] - The current market is characterized by strong fluctuations, and while the trend is bullish, caution is advised against overly aggressive bullish positions [5][6] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown limited volatility, oscillating around 38.5, with a potential for deeper adjustments in the coming days [3][5] - The recommendation is to maintain a cautious approach, considering short positions below 39 and monitoring the support level at 38 [7] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil has experienced significant declines from recent highs, indicating a potential shift into a consolidation phase [8] - The focus is on the support level at 62.5; if this level holds, further bullish opportunities may arise, but a breach could lead to further declines [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the economic transformation in China has entered a new phase, characterized by a decline in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, and a shift towards new consumption patterns and service-oriented growth [3][4] - The conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan brought together executives from nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest and engagement in the capital markets [1] - The chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan, Zhao Wei, highlighted that the traditional policy framework is becoming less effective, necessitating a comprehensive policy innovation to support the new economic phase [3] Group 2 - Zhao Wei noted that new consumption forms, such as self-care and experiential consumption, have emerged significantly over the past two years, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3] - The economic indicators suggest a "bottoming out" of short-term consumer confidence, with a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption approaching [3] - The focus of economic policy is expected to shift from "investment-driven" to "people-oriented" by the end of 2024, with an emphasis on supporting the service sector as a key area for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to undergo a "strong-weak transition" in the second half of 2025, with manufacturing facing potential downward pressure while service sector investments and consumption show signs of improvement [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to play a significant role in the structural reforms of the supply side, aiming for broader and more coordinated economic adjustments [4] - Increased support for the service sector is seen as a crucial strategy to mitigate pressures from the manufacturing sector and to unleash demand potential [4]