Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the lead price showed a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little driving force on lead. The supply side remained relatively stable, with the electrolytic lead operating rate steady and the secondary lead smelting still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. The demand side improved slightly compared to last week as the low lead price prompted downstream enterprises to replenish stocks at low prices. However, the lead battery operating rate remained sluggish, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the lead market will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, closing at 16,955 yuan per ton. The inventory of lead ingots in five domestic regions was 71,400 tons, and the LME inventory was 266,300 tons [1] Industrial Performance - Due to the resumption of production of a smelter in Anhui this week, the regional operating rate increased by 6.6 percentage points. A large secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia is in the furnace-drying stage and is expected to produce lead next week. From January to June 2025, the monthly average sequential growth rate of electric bicycles sold through the trade-in program was 113.5%, and the output of the top ten brands of electric bicycles increased by 27.6% year-on-year. A total of 846,500 electric bicycles were traded in and replaced each, and 82,000 sales outlets participated in the program, with an average increase in single-store sales of 302,000 yuan [1] Core Logic - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little impact on lead. On the supply side, there was little change, with the electrolytic lead operating rate remaining stable. Secondary lead was still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. On the demand side, it improved compared to last week as the low lead price led to downstream restocking. However, the lead battery operating rate remained weak, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillatory trend [2] Nanhua's Viewpoint - The lead market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The strong performance of the US dollar has led to a decline in gold prices, dropping to 3285, which exceeded expectations for this downturn [1] - Gold is currently in a low-level oscillation, with each drop followed by a rebound that lacks continuation, suggesting a need for a strategy focused on accumulating positions at key levels [1][2] - The short-term trading range for gold is defined by a triangle pattern, with key support at 3285 and resistance at 3345; breaking these levels will determine the direction of future movements [2] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver is expected to exhibit limited movement, with an upward resistance at 37.3 and a downward support at 35.5, indicating a likely oscillation phase [1] - The current price of silver is around 36.5, and while it remains in a bullish trend, caution is advised against chasing prices due to potential risks of a pullback [3] - The trading strategy for silver suggests either waiting for a pullback to enter long positions or considering short positions if the upper resistance is not broken [3] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold contracts have shown good profits previously, but a recent pullback has occurred, with the Shanghai gold contract (2512) dropping to around 767; a continuation of long positions is recommended [3] - The expected target for the Shanghai gold contract is between 785 and 795, while the Rongtong gold contract has a target of 780 to 790 [3] - The domestic silver market is also experiencing a pullback, with a current price of 36.5, and the strategy suggests maintaining a cautious approach while monitoring key support levels [4] Group 4: Oil Market Performance - International crude oil has risen to 69, achieving the first target point after previously advising to maintain long positions at 64 [4] - The upward target for crude oil is set at 72, and the strategy is to hold existing long positions while looking for further opportunities to enter the market [4] - Domestic fuel oil has also shown signs of a bullish trend, currently above 2900, with potential targets of 3000 and 3200 [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant drop after unexpected non-farm payroll data, with prices falling to a low of 3311.5 [1] - The analysis indicated that if there was a negative surprise, prices would first test the previous channel's upper boundary at 3313 before rebounding, which aligned with expectations [1] - The current daily analysis suggests that gold is in a consolidation phase, needing to either break above the mid-channel resistance at 3347 or test lower support levels around 3300 [1] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - The silver market is currently facing resistance at the 37 level, and there is no urgency to chase prices higher until a strong breakout occurs [3] - A buying opportunity is suggested at the 36.2-36.3 level, where traders can look to enter positions on dips [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - The oil market is in a downward consolidation phase, with a critical support level at 66. If this level holds, there may be an opportunity to test the upper boundary at 66.9 [4] - If the lower boundary fails to hold, a reassessment of positions may be necessary [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a strong upward potential but is also facing significant fluctuations, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces. The upcoming CPI data release is expected to influence market movements significantly, potentially leading to a breakout from the current consolidation phase [1][2][3]. Gold Market - Gold has shown a bullish trend with recent prices reaching a high of 3348, following a series of profitable trades initiated around 3300-3316 [1][2]. - The technical analysis indicates that as long as the price does not break below the middle Bollinger band, the bullish outlook remains intact, with targets set at 3365 and 3400 [3]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, particularly around the support level of 3315, while monitoring the impact of the CPI data [3][4]. Silver Market - Silver has experienced high-level fluctuations, with a recent peak at 36.9, but is currently facing resistance and uncertainty regarding its next move [4][5]. - The market sentiment suggests a cautious approach, with recommendations to observe the market rather than engage in aggressive trading until clearer signals emerge from the CPI data [4][5]. Domestic Gold and Silver - Domestic gold prices have reached a high of 783, with bullish targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 785 for Rongtong gold, indicating further upside potential [4]. - Domestic silver has shown a recent peak at 9052 but is currently trading lower at around 8940, suggesting a potential for further declines if key support levels are breached [5]. Oil Market - International crude oil has reached a target of 66, with a recent high of 66.2, and is expected to maintain a bullish trend with potential targets of 68 and beyond [5][6]. - Domestic fuel oil has also shown upward movement, reaching a target of 2800 before experiencing a minor pullback, with expectations for further increases towards 3000 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite early declines, gold is expected to rebound, with a strong bullish trend anticipated as it stabilizes above 3280 [2][4] - Gold experienced a significant upward movement, reaching a peak of approximately 3330, reflecting a total increase of nearly 90 USD [4] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to rise, with potential targets set at 3350 and possibly up to 3360 or 3400 [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold opened lower but is expected to provide buying opportunities, with predictions of further increases, particularly for futures contracts [5][6] - The international silver market is characterized by a bullish trend within a range of 32.5 to 34, with successful trades noted at key support levels [5][6] - Crude oil has shown a bullish trend after confirming a level around 60, with expectations of reaching up to 63, contingent on maintaining above the 60 mark [6][7] Group 3 - Domestic fuel oil has shown volatility, with a recent peak at 2770, but is now in a consolidation phase, suggesting a cautious approach to trading until a clearer direction emerges [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating dramatically due to geopolitical risks and trade conflicts, particularly influenced by actions from the Trump administration [1][2]. Market Analysis - The current market is characterized by a lack of sustainability in price movements, where both upward and downward trends are often short-lived, providing limited opportunities for traders to enter positions [1][2]. - Recent trading patterns indicate that after a strong upward movement, any significant pullback can signal a lack of continuation in the bullish trend, making it crucial for traders to monitor the extent of these pullbacks [2][5]. Price Levels and Trading Strategy - As of the latest trading session, gold prices opened strongly but faced a critical support level at $3227-$3230, which must hold for bullish sentiment to continue; a breach below this level could lead to further declines [3][6]. - The resistance level is identified at $3252, and traders are advised to reconsider long positions unless this level is reclaimed, as failure to do so may indicate a bearish trend [5][8]. - The potential downside targets are set between $3180 and $3170 if the market fails to maintain the critical support levels [6][8].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with key levels identified at 3300 for potential long positions and 3259-3386 as the expected range before the non-farm payroll data release [1][2] - The strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips, particularly around 3305, with targets set at 3315-3325, while also considering short positions if the price fails to break above 3330 [2][4] - Resistance levels are noted at 3315, 3325, and further up at 3340, with support identified at 3270-3260 [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have broken below the $60 mark, indicating a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines due to lack of buying momentum [4][6] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at 60.3, 61.1, and 62.7, while support is seen at 59, with further levels at 58 and 56.8 [4][6] - The recommended strategy is to focus on short positions during rebounds, with potential long positions only considered at lower levels [4][6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing fluctuations in the gold market and the uncertainty regarding its future direction [1] - It highlights that the market is currently concerned about various factors influencing gold prices [1]