自今年以来，在这个每日成交额达9.6万亿美元的全球外汇交易市场中，押注美元走弱一直是主导性的交易，但这一押注正开始 变得踉跄，"强美元"时隔数月之久卷土重来。 尽管美国政府停摆持续上演，冲击投资者们对于美元资产的持有信心，但是作为全球主要储备货币的美元的强弱衡量指数仍处于 约两个月高位，凸显出美元近期相对于其他主权货币的强势地位。亚洲和欧洲的交易员们表示，对冲基金正在加码期权押注，认 为相对多数主要货币的美元反弹浪潮将延续至年底。 欧元和日元下跌等海外市场形势，以及美联储官员们集体敦促谨慎进行进一步降息的偏向鹰派言论，都在近期大举提升了美元这 一全球储备货币的吸引力。 然而美元升值趋势可能会对全球经济产生负面性质的影响，使其他央行更难放松货币政策，推高大宗商品成本，并增加以美元计 价的外债负担。 "做空美元"正在演变为投资者们的"痛苦交易"环节 毋庸置疑的是，海外动态是美元近期强势的关键驱动因素之一，尤其是本月欧元和日元骤跌。与此同时，美联储官员呼吁对进一 步降息保持谨慎的言论也大幅提升了美元的投资吸引力。 美元走强持续的时间越长，坚守美元看跌观点者的痛苦就越大。其中的最大美元空头包括高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根 ...

Group 1 - President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar is aimed at benefiting U.S. businesses, despite opposition from several economists who argue it could harm American households [1][2] - Trump claims that a weaker dollar can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers and boost tourism, citing the recent stock price increase of Caterpillar as an example [1] - Economists warn that a weaker dollar makes imported goods more expensive, potentially driving inflation and increasing costs for everyday items, which could negatively impact families [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is characterized as consumption-driven and reliant on imports, meaning a weaker dollar could lead to higher prices for imported goods and contribute to inflation [2] - Critics highlight that the rising deficit and debt are undermining global confidence in the dollar, despite Trump's assertions that his policies will strengthen the economy [3] - The dollar index experienced a significant decline of 10.8% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on Trump's upcoming announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" and the non-farm employment data for March. There are indications that tariff details may still be adjusted at the last moment, but the market has begun to digest this information. The Hong Kong stock market appears to be desensitized to tariff news [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Unlike the previous trade war in 2018, where the Hong Kong stock market reacted negatively to tariff news, this time, after the announcement of Trump's new tariff policy, the US stock market declined while the Hang Seng Index performed well. This suggests a decoupling between the Hong Kong and US markets, indicating that the Hong Kong market has shown signs of desensitization [1][3][5]. - The upcoming implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" may serve as a new observation point for the market. Previously, the US market was highly concerned about tariffs, leading to negative performance. The question now is whether the market, having digested the tariff policy for some time, will see new variables emerge to gradually dominate market sentiment [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has recently shown signs of bottoming out, while US Treasury yields have continued to decline, reaching near-year lows. This divergence suggests that the market still believes the tariff policy may lead to a "strong dollar," but rising risk aversion in the stock market has made bonds a safe haven [2][5]. - If the dollar strengthens, the actual effects of the tariffs may be partially offset, as imported goods are ultimately priced in dollars. Additionally, rising economic uncertainty may lead to more funds choosing US Treasuries as a safe harbor, potentially providing both capital gains and currency gains [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of the US dollar index since March is attributed to unexpected strength in the euro due to fiscal stimulus plans and market speculation around "Trump Recession," rather than the narrative of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" being the main cause [1][4]. Group 1: "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Concept - Stephen Miran's concept of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" suggests that the dollar's trajectory will follow two phases: an initial phase of strong dollar due to tariffs, followed by a weaker dollar phase due to currency agreements [2][12]. - The first phase, characterized by tariffs, is currently in effect, aligning with the strong dollar narrative promoted by the Trump administration [12]. Group 2: Impact of "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Narrative - The narrative surrounding the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has circulated widely in the market, but it has not significantly influenced pricing, despite its weak dollar target seemingly correlating with the dollar index's decline [4][12]. - Concerns about a US recession are not as pronounced as they were in Q4 2023, indicating that the market's apprehension regarding a downturn is less than half of previous levels [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the US Dollar Index - The expectation is that the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" narrative will not significantly impact the market in the short term, especially with the current economic data showing no clear signs of weakness [17]. - If Trump's tariff policies exceed expectations and the euro returns to a stronger fundamental position, the dollar index may experience a rebound [17].