Economic Performance - The US Q2 GDP growth rate was 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and rebounding from a previous value of -0.5%[1] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous value[1] - PCE inflation for Q2 was 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.9% and previous 3.7%[1] Consumption and Investment - Private consumption contributed a 1.0% increase to the GDP, up from 0.3%, with durable goods and services consumption rising, while non-durable goods saw a slight decline[2] - Private investment's contribution dropped from 3.9% to -3.1%, with inventory changes negatively impacting the GDP by -3.2%[2] - Government spending's contribution improved from -0.1% to 0.1%, while net exports shifted from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but two board members voted against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point cut[3] - This marked the first instance in over 30 years where two board members opposed a decision, indicating potential future leadership changes within the Fed[3] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's meeting, US Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stock markets and gold prices fell[4] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 70% to 44%, with expectations for only one rate cut remaining in 2025[4] Economic Outlook - The US economy is likely to experience a soft landing, with inflation risks still present, suggesting caution regarding expectations for rate cuts[5] - The current economic conditions, supported by various fiscal measures, indicate that the Fed will prioritize inflation control over aggressive rate cuts in the near term[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicates that tariffs may increase the likelihood of a cooling job market and exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are suggested to have a direct impact on the employment market, potentially leading to a slowdown [1] - The imposition of tariffs is linked to heightened risks of rising inflation [1]

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over 2% to a low of $3,220 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures hitting a low of $3,228 per ounce, down $281.6 from the historical high of $3,509.9 per ounce on April 22, representing a decline of over 8% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook adjusting their prices to 995 yuan per gram and 1,009 yuan per gram respectively, marking the first time in 20 days that prices fell below 1,000 yuan [1] - In Shenzhen, a major gold jewelry hub, prices dropped to 780 yuan per gram, and merchants are offering discounts on processing fees to attract customers during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a reduction in demand for safe-haven assets due to easing international trade tensions, and profit-taking by investors amid high market sentiment [3] - Ahead of the Labor Day holiday, Chinese traders sold nearly 1 million ounces of gold futures and spot gold, leading to a decrease in total holdings compared to historical highs [3] - Despite the short-term decline, long-term market conditions, including ongoing risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, are expected to support gold prices [5] Group 3 - The recent volatility in gold prices has prompted exchanges to take notice, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusting trading fees and margin levels for gold futures contracts [6] - Several domestic gold ETFs have suspended subscription and redemption services, advising investors to be cautious of short-term trading risks [6] - Experts believe that while gold is currently experiencing a pullback, it remains in a trend of oscillating upward, supported by market demand for safe-haven assets and rising inflation risks in the U.S. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, highlighting the volatility in the market and its impact on consumer behavior and investment strategies [1][9][12]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 1, gold prices fell over $50, dropping below the $3,240 mark, with a reported price of $3,233.21 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.67% [1][2]. - Multiple gold jewelry brands have reduced their prices, with specific prices listed for various brands, such as 995 RMB per gram for Lao Miao gold jewelry and 1,002 RMB per gram for Chow Sang Sang [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Demand - There is a notable increase in consumer interest in gold, with many looking to buy at lower prices or sell high-value gold items. Reports indicate that gold bars are in high demand, with one merchant stating they sell several kilograms daily [7]. - The gold recovery business is also experiencing a surge, with a reported increase of over 70% in the total weight of gold recovered in April compared to the previous month [7]. Group 3: Investment Risks and Market Reactions - Investors have faced significant losses due to the recent price fluctuations, with reports of individuals losing over 470,000 RMB in a single night after buying gold at a high price [9][10]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to trading fees and margin requirements for gold futures contracts, reflecting the increased volatility and risk in the market [11][12]. - Financial institutions are advising investors to be cautious and manage their risk exposure due to the heightened volatility in gold prices [13].

市场本周关注的焦点是特朗普即将宣布的"对等关税"以及3月的非农就业数据。在关税公布 前夕，仍有消息显示关税细节在最后关头仍有可能调整，但市场已经开始消化这些信息。港 股是对关税消息最为脱敏的市场之一。 与上一次的贸易战不同，本次特朗普新关税政策消息发布后，美股一路下行，但恒指却表现 优异，这在一定程度上意味着港股和美股出现了脱钩，同时港股表现出了"脱敏"的迹象，也 似乎表明由于类似的事情曾经发生，人类不会两次踏入同一条河流。 以下文章来源于GTJAI宏观研究 ，作者周浩、孙英超 GTJAI宏观研究 . 国泰君安国际首席经济学家 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 周浩 孙英超 国泰君安宏观研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 从美股和港股的展望而言，本周的"对等关税"正式落地，在一定程度上反而可能是新的值得 观察的时间点，美股市场之前对于关税的关注度较高，市场表现也较为负面，但靴子落地是 否意味着市场在对关税政策进行了一段时间的咀嚼后，新的变量可能出现并逐步主导市场。 从美股和港股的展望而言，本周的"对等关税"正式落地，在一定程度上反而可能是新的值得观察 的时间点，美股市场之前对于关税的关注 ...