Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Middle East conflict on global markets, highlighting the resilience of the A-share market amidst significant fluctuations in global asset prices since the conflict began on February 28. [2][3] Market Performance - Since the outbreak of the conflict, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 45.2%, the US dollar index has increased by 2.6%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen by 47 basis points to 4.44%. In contrast, COMEX gold has seen a significant decline of 15.2%. Major global stock indices, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, have faced pressure, with the Korean Composite Index down 12.9%, the Nikkei 225 down 9.3%, the S&P 500 down 7.4%, and the Hang Seng Index down 6.3%. The Shanghai Composite Index has shown relative resilience with a decline of 6.0%. [2] Market Sentiment Shift - The market's trading logic has shifted from an initial expectation of a "short-term controllable conflict" to concerns about "rising global inflation" and the potential for weakening global growth. Historical analysis of past geopolitical conflicts indicates that initial market reactions are often characterized by emotional shocks and increased risk premiums, leading to a shift of funds from equity assets to safe-haven assets. [3] Industry Analysis - Since the conflict began, the A-share market has focused on "defensive and safe-haven" sectors and "energy substitution." As of March 27, sectors such as utilities, coal, banking, and power equipment have seen gains, while other sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals and defense industries, have experienced declines. The oil and petrochemical sectors have faced increased volatility due to short-term news and long-term demand concerns. [4] Impact of Rising Oil Prices - Rising oil prices are expected to exert short-term valuation pressure on the A-share market, with mid-term implications for corporate profitability. The conflict has disrupted global energy infrastructure and transportation routes, leading to concerns about sustained high oil prices. [6] Supply Chain and Inflation Concerns - The high oil prices are expected to impact global supply chains and macroeconomic conditions, with potential implications for corporate profit margins. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring how rising energy and transportation costs affect corporate profitability, particularly if the conflict prolongs. [7][8] Profitability Channels - Oil prices influence corporate profitability through three main channels: 1. Cost shocks and profit redistribution within the supply chain, benefiting upstream oil and gas extraction and coal sectors while pressuring industries sensitive to fuel and logistics costs. [8] 2. Supply substitution and potential increases in export shares for certain domestic industries due to reduced Middle Eastern supply. [9] 3. The importance of long-term energy security and the reshaping of global competitive dynamics, with China's energy self-sufficiency projected to reach 84.4% by 2025, enhancing its competitive position. [10] Economic and Market Outlook - The sustained high oil prices are likely to affect China's economic and A-share profit expectations, necessitating attention to potential policy responses. Historical data suggests that when oil prices remain above $80 per barrel, A-share non-financial sectors may face profitability pressures. [11][12][13] Investment Strategy - The article suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential and strong earnings certainty, such as AI technology, energy, and materials, while also considering high dividend opportunities in the current market environment. [16][17]

Group 1: PPI Trends - Recent PPI has risen significantly, from -3.6% in July 2025 to -0.9% in February 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in January and February 2026, the highest since 2024[1] - The main contributor to the recent PPI increase is the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, contributing 0.36 and 0.32 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI in January and February 2026, respectively[1][12] - High-frequency data suggests that March PPI may reach approximately +0.6%, likely driven by the petrochemical chain due to rising oil prices[2][19] Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The cost transmission effect of oil is approximately five times greater than that of non-ferrous metals, indicating that oil price increases will have a more significant impact on downstream prices[4][38] - If oil prices rise to $160 per barrel, the PPI is expected to increase by around 5.0% year-on-year in 2026, with CPI at approximately 2.0%[5][46] - In a scenario where oil prices stabilize at $120 per barrel, the PPI is projected to be 3.4% year-on-year, with CPI at 1.6%[6][47] Group 3: Future Projections - The average month-on-month PPI from July 2025 to February 2026 is approximately 0.13%, indicating that maintaining a month-on-month PPI above -0.08% for the next 10 months could lead to a positive year-on-year PPI in 2026[3][32] - If geopolitical conflicts persist, the upward pressure on PPI may increase, further enhancing the duration and magnitude of inflationary trends[4][38] - In a scenario where oil prices decrease to $80 per barrel, the PPI is expected to be around 1.8% year-on-year, with CPI at 1.4%[6][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of overseas uncertainties on the A-share technology sector, highlighting the correlation between institutional fund redemption trends and geopolitical risks [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Fund Flows - The fixed income + funds, which are sensitive to market fluctuations, experienced substantial net redemptions, marking the second-largest single-day sell-off since the onset of the current conflict [1]. - In January, fixed income + funds saw record inflows, driven by a bullish equity market, leading to increased participation from both retail and institutional investors [1]. - As market uncertainties arise, risk-averse funds, particularly those with lower stability in liabilities, are the first to withdraw, leading to a chain reaction of selling pressure on public funds [2][3]. Group 2: Performance of Convertible Bonds and ETFs - The convertible bond market has shown extreme volatility, with the high-priced convertible bond index experiencing a maximum drawdown of 15.54%, significantly higher than the drawdowns of small-cap stocks [3][4]. - The largest convertible bond ETF saw a net outflow of 1.26 billion, indicating a strong trend of institutional selling, which reflects broader market sentiment [4][6]. - The chemical ETF, which grew from under 2 billion to over 37 billion, also faced significant net outflows recently, suggesting that institutional selling is impacting market performance [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are creating a complex environment that affects global oil supply and economic growth, with a significant oil shortfall projected [12][18]. - High oil prices are expected to influence inflation and interest rate expectations, potentially limiting the room for central banks to lower rates, which could suppress stock market valuations [26][27]. - The article emphasizes the need for caution in investment strategies, particularly in light of the current geopolitical landscape and its potential economic repercussions [32][35].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - COMEX gold and silver futures, along with Shanghai gold and silver futures, all declined on March 16, 2026. The market is affected by factors such as the change in ETF positions, Fed interest - rate expectations, central bank gold - buying trends, and the situation in the Middle East. The short - term market is uncertain, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures dropped 2.00% to $5023.10/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 5.25% to $80.64/ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract decreased 1.31% to 1126.64 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract declined 4.59% to 20682 yuan/kg [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.76% to 100.50 on Friday, up 1.56% for the week. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.27%, up 14 basis points for the week. Brent May crude oil futures rose 3.41% to $103.89/barrel, up 12.08% for the week [2] Important Information - On March 13, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.287 tons to 1071.565 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 78.88 tons to 15460.18 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 0.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.2%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by April is 6.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93%, with a 0% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by June is 24.7% [1] - In January 2026, global central banks' net gold purchases were 5 tons, showing a slowdown compared to the monthly average of 27 tons in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may drive central banks to continue increasing gold holdings [1] - The U.S. core PCE in January increased 0.4% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [1] - There are signs that the Middle East conflict may continue. The U.S. and Iran have no intention to stop the war. The Israeli military said the operation against Iran would last at least three more weeks [1] Market Logic - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations led to the continued decline of COMEX gold and silver on Friday. The short - term will test the support levels of $5000/ounce and $80/ounce [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly downward. With the current mild domestic inflation indicators and the persistent issue of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain generally loose, and there are still expectations of future interest rate cuts, which support Treasury bond futures. However, the possibility of the central bank implementing a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Additionally, the risk of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis becoming long - term persists, and concerns about rising inflation may slow down the central bank's interest rate cut pace, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly experience range - bound fluctuations in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On March 11, the central bank conducted 26.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 26.5 billion yuan, and the winning bid volume was 26.5 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 40.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan for the day [5] Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2606, T2606, TF2606, TS2606, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][9]

Group 1 - The volatility of the US dollar is beginning to impact the US Treasury market, signaling that a weakening dollar may become a potential factor driving up market interest rates [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell over 2.5% last week, reaching a nearly three-year low, while the Treasury market remained unresponsive during that period [1] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding his indifference to dollar depreciation and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's denial of intervention to boost the yen have contributed to fluctuations in the dollar's value [1] Group 2 - The US Treasury market is experiencing weakness across all maturities, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.89% [2] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields is linked to the weakening dollar, which may ultimately lead to upward inflation pressures, contradicting the Trump administration's claims of reducing borrowing costs [4] - The widening yield spread between the 30-year and 2-year Treasuries, which increased by approximately 7 basis points, indicates significant market movements [4] Group 3 - The current trend of a weakening dollar is seen as potentially detrimental, as the US fiscal deficit relies on funding from overseas investors, despite some benefits for export-oriented companies [5] - The stability of the US Treasury market is deemed more important than the short-term advantages of a weaker dollar, as most US export companies are not sensitive to price changes [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the end of 2025 was volatile and weak, mainly affected by year - end institutional behavior changes and strong December PMI data. The official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market, and the bond market at the beginning of 2026 is likely to recover [13][16]. - In 2026 Q1, the bond market has both risks and opportunities. At the beginning of 2026, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds similar to that in early 2025 is small. Higher interest rates are beneficial for allocation - type institutions, while trading - type institutions can focus on capital interest rates and potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [17]. - The "grand narrative" pricing and cyclical factors of gold are positive in 2026, and gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The long - term value of the RMB is underestimated, but in the medium - term, the supporting role of macro - policies during the transformation from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [20]. - The latest PMI and EIA data in the US show increased inflationary pressure and slowed economic expansion momentum. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has become more cautious. There are significant policy differences within the Fed, and the monetary policy path requires more data for confirmation [21]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Impact of PMI and New Fund Sales Regulations on the Bond Market**: From December 26 to 31, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.45bp from 1.8355% to 1.85%. On December 31, the release of PMI data initially suppressed the bond market sentiment, and the official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales had limited impact on the bond market that day [11][12]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data and Bond Yields**: The US December PMI initial values were all lower than expected, EIA inventory data changed, and the housing and labor markets showed mixed signals. The Fed's policy differences were significant, and the short - term interest - rate cut faced resistance [21][22][32]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries - **Liquidity Tracking**: From December 29 to 31, 2025, the net investment in the open market was 117.1 billion yuan. The money market interest rates and bond yields showed certain changes [36][41]. - **Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices generally rose, LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased across the board. Overseas, the US stock and bond markets, and commodity prices also had corresponding fluctuations [59]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, 9 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 26 billion yuan, including 11.5 billion yuan in refinancing bonds and 14.5 billion yuan in new special bonds. The net financing amount was 17.449 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [84]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The local bond stock was 54.61 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 133.992 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.25%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [97]. - **This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan**: The issuance plans for Shandong and Zhejiang provinces from January 5 to 9, 2026, were provided [103]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 81 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 74.42 billion yuan, a total repayment of 136.119 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 61.7 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 8.818 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was - 52.882 billion yuan [104][105]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds showed different degrees of change [118]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total trading volume of credit bonds was 242.219 billion yuan, with short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes having relatively large trading volumes [119]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [121][123][125]. - **Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different degrees of change, with the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widening [128][131][134]. - **Grade Spreads**: The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [135][141][142]. - **Trading Activity**: The industrial sector had the largest trading volume of bonds, reaching 152.732 billion yuan. The top five most actively traded bonds in each category were listed [147]. - **Subject Rating Changes**: The subject ratings of several companies were upgraded, including Yichun Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Suining Tianyi Investment Group Co., Ltd. [149].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of future positioning rather than past defensive strategies, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities for excess returns in the upcoming year [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term but are projected to reach new highs in the medium term due to credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to maintain its strategic importance despite short-term price declines, with a widening supply-demand gap expected in the medium term [17]. - The copper market is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases in the medium term, encouraging investors to buy on dips [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is high, but medium-term prospects are strong with expectations of new highs supported by credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - Rare Earths: Short-term price declines do not diminish the medium-term strategic position, with an anticipated widening supply-demand gap [17]. - Copper: Strong medium-term price outlook, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to expected economic recovery and increased manufacturing investment [17]. 2. Steel Industry - Profitability: Short-term profitability is under pressure, with both prices and costs declining [28]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly rebar consumption decreased to 2.2 million tons, down 8.84% week-on-week and 14.77% year-on-year [24][18]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [25]. - Prices: The overall steel price index has slightly decreased, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a notable drop [38]. 3. New Energy Metals - Supply: Significant increase in lithium production, with August 2025 output reaching 80,040 tons, up 46.54% year-on-year [42]. - Demand: High growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, with August 2025 figures showing a 26% increase year-on-year [48]. - Prices: Lithium prices have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 75,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.55% week-on-week increase [55].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices, highlighting their historical highs and the implications of current market conditions, including overbought signals and the influence of the US dollar index on commodity prices [1][3][5]. Gold and Silver Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,887.25, peaked at $4,058.90, and closed at $4,018.09, marking an increase of $132.19 or 3.40% [1]. - The spot silver price rose by 4.86%, closing at $50.27, also a historical high [3]. - The gold and silver indices continue to show strong upward trends, with the wellxin precious metal index reaching 8,239.17 points, up 3.02% [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a significantly overbought state, with various technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI reaching historical highs, indicating potential risks of a market peak [12][15][17]. - The silver market also shows signs of overbought conditions, with the price reaching $51.23, close to the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a possible technical peak [14]. Market Influences - The strong performance of precious metals is occurring despite a rising US dollar index, which opened at 98.03 points and closed at 98.82 points, up 1.15% [3]. - The article notes that the recent comments from former President Trump regarding trade tensions with China have negatively impacted the commodity market, leading to declines in oil and basic metals [7]. ETF Holdings - As of October 10, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported holdings of 1,017.16 tons, an increase of 2.3 tons from the previous week [20][22]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported holdings of 15,443.76 tons, up 273.82 tons from the previous week [22].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant inflows into the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly highlighted by the surge in the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) which attracted 75.6 million yuan in just two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan as of September 2 [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On September 2, spot gold in London surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a new high, with Morgan Stanley projecting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce [3]. - Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are poised to enter a new upward trend [3]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by increased fiscal dominance in the U.S., leading to a trend of abundant dollar liquidity, which is favorable for global risk assets and supports gold as an anti-inflation asset [3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with high growth prospects due to several factors: 1. Supply-side improvements are expected as "anti-involution" initiatives accelerate the clearance of excess capacity, enhancing profitability for non-ferrous enterprises [3]. 2. Demand from emerging industries such as new energy, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and robotics is increasing the need for non-ferrous metals [3]. 3. The global economic recovery, coupled with a depreciating dollar, is supporting non-ferrous metal prices [3]. - The industrial metals sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals beginning to take shape [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which includes significant weights in copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), providing a diversified investment approach [5]. - The ETF's performance reflects a strategy to mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5].