Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's GDP is projected to grow by 5.11% in 2025, marking a recovery from previous years' slowdown and achieving the highest growth rate since 2022 [1][2][3] Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is higher than 5.03% in 2024 and 5.05% in 2023, indicating a positive trend after two years of decline [1] - Quarterly growth shows a consistent acceleration: Q1 at 4.87%, Q2 at 5.12%, Q3 at 5.04%, and Q4 reaching 5.39%, the highest since Q3 2022 [1][2] Inflation and External Stability - Inflation is projected at a moderate 2.92% for 2025, with core inflation at 2.38%, well within the central bank's target range [2] - As of December 2025, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach $156.5 billion, sufficient for 6.4 months of imports, indicating strong external account stability [2] Regional Economic Comparison - Indonesia's economic growth of 4.9% in 2025 leads the ASEAN region, surpassing the average growth rate of 4.1% for the five ASEAN countries [3] Growth Drivers - The economic recovery is supported by a balanced contribution from consumption, investment, and exports, with household consumption accounting for 53.14% of GDP [4] - Fixed capital formation is expected to grow by 6.12% in Q4 2025, indicating a new investment cycle [4] - Non-oil and gas manufacturing exports reached $187.82 billion from January to October 2025, representing 80.25% of total exports and a 15.75% year-on-year increase [4] Challenges and Outlook - Despite the positive growth, the 5.11% rate falls short of the government's target of 5.2%, raising concerns about growth potential [5] - Moody's downgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit outlook to negative, reflecting concerns over policy predictability and fiscal sustainability [6] - The government remains optimistic, setting a 2026 growth target of 5.4%, with various institutions predicting growth between 5.0% and 5.1% for 2026 [6][7]

Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP is projected to grow by 5.11% in 2025, marking a three-year high but slightly below the government's target of 5.2% [1] Economic Performance - The manufacturing sector is the core driver of economic growth, contributing 19.07% to the GDP [1] - The combined contribution of five key industries—manufacturing, trade, agriculture, construction, and mining—accounts for over 60% of the economic growth [1] Supporting Factors - Despite external challenges, Indonesia's economy remains stable, supported by improved consumer spending and increased investment [1]

Core Insights - The unobserved economy in Uzbekistan is projected to decrease to 498.04 trillion soums (approximately 39.62 billion USD) in 2025, a reduction of 7.6 trillion soums (63 million USD) compared to 2024, with its GDP share dropping from 34.8% in 2024 to 26.9% in 2025 [1] Economic Composition - The unobserved economy consists of the informal economy and the shadow economy, with the informal economy accounting for 351.04 trillion soums (291.4 million USD), representing 19% of GDP (down from 26.4% in 2024) [1] - The shadow economy is valued at 147 trillion soums (122 million USD), making up 7.9% of GDP (a slight decrease from 8.4% in 2024) [1] Sector Distribution - The agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors dominate the unobserved economy, comprising 62.6%, followed by the service sector at 26.9%, construction at 23.5%, and industry at 9.4% [1] - The most significant declines in the unobserved economy are concentrated in the service and construction sectors [1]

Economic Growth - Vietnam's GDP is projected to grow by 8.02% in 2025, reaching approximately 12.847 trillion VND (about 514 billion USD), which is an increase of 38 billion USD year-on-year [1] - The per capita GDP is expected to be around 1.255 million VND (approximately 5,026 USD), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 326 USD [1] Sector Contributions - Agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors are expected to grow by 3.78%, contributing 5.3% to GDP [1] - The industrial and construction sectors are projected to grow by 8.95%, contributing 43.62% to GDP, achieving the highest growth rate since 2019 [1] - The services sector is anticipated to grow by 8.62%, contributing 51.08% to GDP [1] Trade and Consumption - Final consumption is expected to grow by 7.95%, while asset accumulation is projected to increase by 8.68% [1] - Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 16.27%, with imports increasing by 17.12% [1] Labor Productivity - Labor productivity is estimated at 2.45 million VND per person (approximately 9,809 USD per person), with a year-on-year increase of 626 USD [2] - When calculated at constant prices, labor productivity is expected to grow by 6.83%, primarily due to improvements in worker skill levels [2] Future Economic Goals - For 2026, the government aims for a double-digit GDP growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability and controlling inflation, which presents a significant challenge requiring collective efforts from the government, businesses, and the public [2]

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's GDP for the first nine months of 2025 reached 95.23 billion manats (56.02 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1] - The oil and gas sector experienced a decline of 1.9%, while the non-oil sector grew by 2.9% [1] - Per capita GDP for the same period was 9,300.3 manats (5,470.8 USD) [1] Sector Contributions - Industry accounted for 34.2% of GDP [1] - Trade and automotive repair contributed 10.5% [1] - Transportation and storage made up 7% [1] - Agriculture, forestry, and fishing represented 6.8% [1] - Construction sector contributed 6.6% [1] - Tourism, accommodation, and catering accounted for 2.8% [1] - Information and communication sector comprised 1.8% [1] - Other industries collectively made up 20.7% [1]

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's GDP reached 830.4 billion manats (approximately 488.5 billion USD) in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - The oil and gas sector experienced a decline in output by 2.1%, while the non-oil sector saw an increase in output by 2.6% [1] Sector Contributions to GDP - The industrial sector accounted for 34.9% of GDP [1] - Trade and automotive repair contributed 10.3% to GDP [1] - Transportation and storage represented 7.1% of GDP [1] - Agriculture, forestry, and fishing made up 6.3% of GDP [1] - Construction also accounted for 6.3% of GDP [1] - The tourism, accommodation, and catering sector contributed 2.8% to GDP [1] - Information and communication sector represented 1.8% of GDP [1] - Other industries collectively accounted for 20.7% of GDP [1]

Core Insights - Chile's export value declined again in August, but lithium exports saw their first increase in over two years [1] Export Performance - Total merchandise exports in August amounted to $7.86 billion, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the same month in 2024, marking the lowest level since September of the previous year [1] - Mining exports fell by 1.9% year-on-year to $4.6 billion, with copper exports decreasing by 2.2% to $4.2 billion [1] - Lithium exports increased by 2.4% to $145 million, representing the first growth since March 2023 [1] - Agricultural, forestry, and fishing exports rose by 19.1% to $462 million, while industrial exports declined by 4.2% to $2.8 billion [1] Import and Trade Balance - Total imports grew by 1.6% to $7.48 billion [1] - Chile's trade surplus in August was $906 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.7% [1]

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's GDP reached 72.43 billion manats (approximately 42.61 billion USD) in the first seven months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [1] Economic Structure - The oil and gas sector experienced a decline of 3.3%, while the non-oil sector grew by 7.3% [1] - The per capita GDP stood at 7,077 manats (around 4,162.9 USD) [1] Sector Contributions - Industrial sector accounts for 35% of GDP - Trade and automotive repair contribute 10.1% - Transportation and storage represent 7% - Agriculture, forestry, and fishing make up 6.3% - Construction sector holds 6% - Tourism, accommodation, and public catering contribute 2.8% - Information and communication sector accounts for 1.8% - Other industries collectively represent 21.1% [1] Taxation - Tax revenue constitutes 9.9% of GDP [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Takashi Eto, will resign following controversial remarks regarding rice [1] Group 1 - The resignation is a direct consequence of the backlash from his comments about rice, which have sparked significant public and political controversy [1]