Shipping Industry - The recent increase in crude oil shipping rates, particularly for VLCCs, is attributed to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in July and the imposition of punitive tariffs by Trump on India's purchase of Russian oil, indicating a potential bottoming out of the oil shipping market during the summer [1] - Given the current supply dynamics, shipping rates and stock prices are expected to outperform, with marginal changes in demand likely to have a multiplier effect on rates; recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, with a focus on China Merchants Jinling [1] - In the container shipping sector, weakening cargo volumes have led to declining rates on US and European routes, with short-term demand primarily influenced by US-China tariff policies; however, profitability for container shipping companies is expected to remain under pressure throughout the year [1] Aviation Industry - As the summer travel peak season nears its end, there has been a slight increase in overall and domestic flight volumes, with overall and domestic flights up by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively compared to the previous week, and overall flights at 110.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The domestic average ticket price has decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, while passenger load factors have improved by 0.7 percentage points; the overall aviation market is experiencing a situation of rising volume but falling prices [2] - Investment recommendations suggest positioning in the aviation sector at lower points, as profits and stock prices are expected to rebound significantly with economic recovery, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1 has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with minimum price standards raised in regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong, indicating a shift towards improved service quality and reduced competition [3] - The express delivery industry is expected to see a balance between regulation, competition, profitability, and quality, with positive price and profit performance anticipated in the fourth quarter [3] - Investment suggestions include focusing on SF Express, which is expected to benefit from increased consumer demand for home appliances and 3C products, and monitoring the effects of the "anti-involution" policy on other express companies like ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery industry, emphasizing that regulatory strength will determine the sustainability of price increases and future profitability [3][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Background - From late 2019, leading companies initiated price competition to increase market share, leading to irrational price wars that pressured performance and valuations in the express delivery sector [3]. - In early 2021, the instability of the express delivery network became evident, prompting the State Post Bureau to intervene and initiate "anti-involution" measures [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - In April 2021, the State Post Bureau took decisive action against irrational price wars, stabilizing the network and increasing the minimum price for express services in Yiwu from 0.8 yuan to 1.4 yuan [3]. - By September 2021, regulations in Zhejiang Province mandated that express services could not be offered below cost without justification, further supporting the "anti-involution" initiative [3]. Group 3: Recovery and Future Outlook - The article notes that the profitability of leading companies is expected to recover in 2022 as competition eases and the network stabilizes [3]. - In 2025, the intensity of "anti-involution" measures is anticipated to exceed expectations, with short-term competitive pressure easing and long-term healthy competition being maintained [4]. Group 4: Profitability and Pricing - The net profit per ticket for major companies in 2024 is projected to be 0.26 yuan for Zhongtong, 0.15 yuan for YTO, 0.08 yuan for Yunda, and 0.05 yuan for Shentong, with expected declines in the second half of 2024 and Q1 2025 [5]. - If price increases are sustained, the industry may exhibit profitability elasticity and valuation recovery, contingent on the regulatory environment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - The report reviews the regulatory policies and effects of irrational competition in the express delivery industry in 2021, aiming to forecast the potential impacts of the current "anti-involution" measures on the industry [2][7] - In 2021, under the "common prosperity" initiative, regulations focused on "protecting the legal rights of couriers," leading to a significant recovery in industry profitability and stock prices after major express delivery companies announced a network-wide fee increase [2][7] - Looking ahead to 2025, the report anticipates a decline in single-package profits and suggests that measures such as price guidance in grain-producing areas and curbing "punitive management" could effectively transition companies from price wars to value competition [2][7] Summary by Sections Regulatory Review of 2021 - The report highlights that in 2021, the express delivery industry faced severe irrational competition, prompting regulatory actions to stabilize the market and protect couriers' rights [21][30] - Major express companies raised their fees in September 2021, which helped restore profitability and stock performance [39] Outlook for 2025 - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing renewed price competition, with average package prices dropping to around 2 yuan, and some areas seeing prices fall below 1 yuan [40][48] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory measures to ensure fair competition and protect couriers' rights, suggesting that the industry is at a critical juncture [48] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and Jitu Express, highlighting potential improvements in profitability and valuation recovery opportunities [2][7][48]