Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt their understanding of "safety" and investment strategies in response to changing market conditions, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where traditional asset allocation methods are being challenged [3][4][11]. Group 1: Redefining Safety - The occurrence of "interest rate inversion" indicates a need to reassess the traditional definition of "risk-free returns" [4][17]. - True wealth security should incorporate a time dimension, focusing on the long-term preservation and appreciation of assets rather than just nominal principal safety [5][19]. - Investors should accept market volatility as a potential indicator of long-term growth opportunities rather than viewing it solely as risk [5][19]. Group 2: Investment Framework - A three-layer analytical framework is proposed to navigate the complexities of the real estate market, focusing on short-term, mid-term, and long-term factors [4][18]. - Short-term market sentiment can be gauged through indicators such as the change in second-hand housing listings, which reflect immediate supply and demand dynamics [6][18]. - Mid-term market conditions are influenced by supply-side factors, including land transaction data and local government revenue from land sales, which affect infrastructure investment and overall market development [8][21]. Group 3: Long-term Value and Slow Variables - Long-term value analysis should focus on identifying the core competitive advantages of cities, such as population attraction and industrial vitality, which are essential for real estate investment [10][23]. - Understanding "slow variables" is crucial for long-term planning, as they shape the fundamental value of assets over time, influenced by demographic and technological trends [10][23]. Group 4: Adapting to New Norms - As traditional investment strategies become less effective, investors are encouraged to recalibrate their understanding of risk and return, moving from chasing market trends to focusing on long-term planning [11][24]. - The volatility of previously considered "stable" assets may increase, while sectors aligned with long-term growth trends may present new investment opportunities [11][24]. - The ongoing "UP向上，投资有温度" initiative aims to provide investors with insights into complex information, facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable wealth growth [3][11][24].

第一，成因复杂多元，涵盖长期结构性问题与短期周期性因素，无法通过逐一解决深层原因破解。 第二，属于市场失灵，个体减少支出、企业缩减投资的 "自保行为"，叠加后会导致整体经济恶化，需 外部力量干预。 第三，快变量主导下行趋势，投资、信贷等变量调整速度快，对经济走势影响更为直接。 第四，危害极具破坏性，历史上美国大萧条、日本 "失去的二十年" 均凸显需求不足的长期负面影响， 若不及时遏制将持续放大。 张斌强调，破解需求不足的关键并非纠结于背后的复杂结构性问题，而应优先 "止血"，打破负向循环 的传递链条，避免危机自我放大。这如同医疗救治，医生需先稳定患者生命体征，而非即刻解决所有基 础病。 针对政策如何发力，张斌提出几大核心建议： 专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。 第十四届全国政协委员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌提出需求不足的三大核心成 因：一是与发展阶段相关，属于经济体发展到一定水平后的 "富贵病"，区别于穷国常见的供给短缺问 题；二是存在明确诱因，多为资产价格泡沫 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Teng, a fund manager at Yinhua Fund, identifies as a non-traditional "value investor" who seeks "elastic" opportunities in a volatile market environment, achieving significant performance without relying on hot sectors [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - Zhang Teng differentiates between high-dividend and elastic value stocks, arguing that traditional views of value investing are limited and do not fully capture market opportunities [2]. - His investment approach is based on a top-down analysis of macro variables and industry logic, aiming to find the most cost-effective stocks within a portfolio [2]. Career Evolution - Zhang Teng's investment skills have evolved over 14 years, transitioning from a focus on specific sectors to a more balanced and risk-aware investment strategy [3]. - His educational background in energy and minerals laid the foundation for his focus on cyclical sectors, and he adapted his strategies in response to market shifts [3]. Risk Management - To avoid over-concentration, Zhang Teng adheres to an industry diversification principle, adjusting position limits based on the richness of sub-sectors [4]. - The concepts of "slow variables" and "anti-fragility" enhance his investment insights and decision-making stability [4]. Market Outlook - Zhang Teng anticipates that industrial metals may perform well in the latter half of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, suggesting a focus on sectors with significant price elasticity, such as rare earths and strategic metals [4].

Core Insights - Zhang Teng, a fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has achieved impressive returns in traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, contrasting with the market's focus on AI and semiconductors [1][3] - His fund, Yinhua Ruihe Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, reported a year-to-date net value growth rate of 29.69% and a one-year growth rate of 45.77%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [1] Investment Philosophy - Zhang Teng's investment approach evolved from being a "track-type" investor to a "systematic" investor, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in changing market conditions [3][7] - He developed a framework based on "slow variables" and "anti-fragility," allowing him to navigate market cycles and avoid the pitfalls of extreme concentration in investments [6][7] Market Trends and Opportunities - The "carbon neutrality" trend provided a testing ground for Zhang's new investment system, where he identified the value of traditional energy sources like coal as scarce assets during the energy transition [8][9] - Currently, Zhang is focusing on the "anti-involution" trend, which he believes will reshape certain industry ecosystems in China, seeking opportunities in sectors with inherent anti-involution demands [11][12] Sector Focus - Zhang's analysis of the chemical and non-ferrous sectors reveals a strategic approach to identifying investment opportunities based on industry profit distribution and market dynamics [12][13] - He emphasizes a diversified portfolio within the non-ferrous sector to capture various market drivers while adhering to his principles of "slow variables" and "anti-fragility" [13]

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Teng, a fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has achieved impressive returns by focusing on traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, while others chase trends in AI and semiconductors [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy Evolution - Zhang Teng transitioned from a "track-type" investor to a "systematic" investor, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in changing market conditions [4][8]. - His investment strategy now incorporates "slow variables," which allow for better judgment of economic cycles and asset price directions [6]. - The principle of "antifragility" has been integrated into his approach, focusing on survival and risk management rather than short-term gains [7][8]. Group 2: Carbon Neutrality Investment - The "carbon neutrality" trend served as a testing ground for Zhang's new investment framework, where he recognized the enduring value of traditional energy sources amidst the transition [9][10]. - He strategically invested in coal, anticipating its revaluation due to scarcity, while maintaining a disciplined approach to position sizing [10][11]. Group 3: Current Investment Focus - Zhang Teng is now targeting the "anti-involution" theme, which he believes will reshape certain industry ecosystems in China [12]. - His investment logic favors industries with inherent "anti-involution" demands or concentrated supply structures, rather than those in chaotic competition [12][13]. - He has identified opportunities in specific segments of the chemical and non-ferrous metals industries, leveraging insights from profit distribution along the supply chain [13][14]. - The current macroeconomic environment, particularly the anticipated Fed rate cuts, is seen as favorable for industrial metals, allowing for a diversified investment approach within the non-ferrous sector [14].