Core Insights - Zhang Teng, a fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has achieved impressive returns in traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, contrasting with the market's focus on AI and semiconductors [1][3] - His fund, Yinhua Ruihe Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, reported a year-to-date net value growth rate of 29.69% and a one-year growth rate of 45.77%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [1] Investment Philosophy - Zhang Teng's investment approach evolved from being a "track-type" investor to a "systematic" investor, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in changing market conditions [3][7] - He developed a framework based on "slow variables" and "anti-fragility," allowing him to navigate market cycles and avoid the pitfalls of extreme concentration in investments [6][7] Market Trends and Opportunities - The "carbon neutrality" trend provided a testing ground for Zhang's new investment system, where he identified the value of traditional energy sources like coal as scarce assets during the energy transition [8][9] - Currently, Zhang is focusing on the "anti-involution" trend, which he believes will reshape certain industry ecosystems in China, seeking opportunities in sectors with inherent anti-involution demands [11][12] Sector Focus - Zhang's analysis of the chemical and non-ferrous sectors reveals a strategic approach to identifying investment opportunities based on industry profit distribution and market dynamics [12][13] - He emphasizes a diversified portfolio within the non-ferrous sector to capture various market drivers while adhering to his principles of "slow variables" and "anti-fragility" [13]

这种从"变量"到"机会"的推演能力，使他的周期投资呈现出较强的进攻性。他强调，很多人对价值存在 认知偏差——"大家给价值贴的标签就是没什么弹性"。但事实上，在他重点布局的有色、化工、钢铁等 板块中，"也有很多短期弹性比较大的标的"。他以碳中和行情中的周期品种、地缘冲突背景中的传统能 源股为例，这些机会不仅具备价值属性，同样可以带来显著超额收益："并不是因为做价值投资就丧失 了整个组合的弹性。"他管理的基金业绩也印证了这一点，截至2025年8月15日，银华瑞和灵活配置混合 基金（005544）今年以来净值增长率29.69%（业绩比较基准3.96%），过去一年净值增长率45.77%（业 绩比较基准15.23%），在同类型基金中排名84/415。 张腾，硕士研究生。曾就职于上海申银万国研究所、中邮创业基金管理股份有限公司，2023年7月加 入银华基金，现任权益投资管理部基金经理/投资经理助理（社保、基本养老）。 真正让张腾区别于传统周期股投资选手的，是他将宏观思维嵌入产业研究中，形成多维度、长周期的决 策框架，从而在周期轮动中实现更早的布局与切换。 在波谲云诡的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a "anti-fragile" investment portfolio that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term high performance, as articulated by Zhang Teng, the fund manager of Yinhua Ruihe [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Zhang Teng advocates for a focus on "slow variables" that have long-term impacts, aiming to maintain an "anti-fragile" portfolio that sacrifices some flexibility for steady net value growth [4][5]. - The investment approach contrasts "track-type" investment, which seeks high concentration in specific sectors and stocks, with "anti-fragile" investment that emphasizes diversification and risk control [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Process - Zhang has developed a unique "anti-fragile" investment process that includes top-down market style assessment, selection of cyclical stocks based on dividend yield or elasticity, and continuous tracking of sector-specific drivers [6]. - The investment style incorporates a broader definition of "value," recognizing that traditional dichotomies between value and growth do not fully capture the investment strategy [6]. Group 3: Fund Performance - As of August 15, 2025, the Yinhua Ruihe Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (005544) has achieved a year-to-date net value growth rate of 29.69%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 3.96% [7]. - Over the past year, the fund's net value growth rate reached 45.77%, compared to a benchmark of 15.23%, ranking 84 out of 415 in its category [7]. Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to regulate low-price competition and enhance product quality, creating investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in metals and chemicals [8][9]. - Zhang Teng identifies the non-ferrous metals sector as having high certainty for investment, especially as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, which historically precedes a recovery in industrial metal demand [10].

□本报记者张凌之 这种从"变量"到"机会"的推演能力，使他的周期投资呈现出较强的进攻性。他强调，很多人对价值存在 认知偏差——"大家给价值贴的标签就是没什么弹性"。但事实上，在他重点布局的有色、化工、钢铁等 板块中，"也有很多短期弹性比较大的标的"。他以碳中和行情中的周期品种、地缘冲突背景中的传统能 源股为例，这些机会不仅具备价值属性，同样可以带来显著超额收益："并不是因为做价值投资就丧失 了整个组合的弹性。"他管理的基金业绩也印证了这一点，截至2025年8月15日，银华瑞和灵活配置混合 基金(005544)今年以来净值增长率29.69%(业绩比较基准3.96%)，过去一年净值增长率45.77%(业绩比较 基准15.23%)，在同类型基金中排名84/415。 真正让张腾区别于传统周期股投资选手的，是他将宏观思维嵌入产业研究中，形成多维度、长周期的决 策框架，从而在周期轮动中实现更早的布局与切换。 "反脆弱"框架持续进化 在波谲云诡的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与宏观框架，走出了一条与众 不同的周期投资之路。 他不是传统意义上的"价值派"，也非单纯追逐热点的"成长型选手"，而是一位深谙产 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Teng, the fund manager of Yinhua Ruihe, adopts a unique energy perspective and macro framework for cyclical investment, distinguishing himself from traditional value and growth investors [1][2] - His investment philosophy emphasizes capturing structural opportunities through a deep understanding of energy dynamics and macroeconomic slow variables, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality and anti-involution [1][6] - Zhang's approach to cyclical stocks focuses on underlying variables rather than merely following commodity prices, aiming to identify undervalued elastic factors at the intersection of industry logic and macro changes [1][3] Group 2 - Zhang Teng's investment framework is influenced by Taleb's "anti-fragile" theory, which emphasizes the importance of macro awareness and diversified investments to achieve long-term stability [4][5] - His strategy includes maintaining a diversified portfolio across five main sectors to mitigate risks while focusing on core driving factors of different assets [5][6] - The "anti-fragile" framework has evolved to enable the identification of opportunities during extreme market fluctuations, allowing for dynamic optimization of investment portfolios [6][8] Group 3 - In the context of the "anti-involution" policy, Zhang Teng identifies significant investment opportunities in the changing supply-demand dynamics of the non-ferrous and chemical sectors, rather than in highly discussed areas like photovoltaics [7][8] - He emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with steep supply curves and high cost differentials, particularly in strategic resources like rare earths, which are expected to experience value reassessment [7][8] - Zhang's macro perspective includes viewing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle as a key slow variable that will benefit the non-ferrous sector, with different metals responding at varying paces [8]