Core Viewpoint - A new round of domestic refined oil retail price adjustments is expected to result in a decrease, with most regions seeing 92-octane gasoline prices returning to around 6 yuan per liter, leading to savings of approximately 10 yuan for a full tank in private cars [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The adjustment window will open at 24:00 on October 27, 2025, with predictions indicating a reduction of 265 yuan per ton for gasoline and 255 yuan per ton for diesel [2]. - The current reference crude oil price change rate is -6.09%, which supports the anticipated price decrease [2]. - Following this adjustment, the retail price for 92-octane gasoline is expected to be between 6.8 and 6.9 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 6.5 to 6.7 yuan per liter [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is set for November 10, 2025, with analysts suggesting a higher probability of price increases due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3]. - The market is closely monitoring the interplay of geopolitical tensions and US oil production expectations, which could influence future crude oil prices [3].

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in fuel prices has led to a decrease of 75 yuan per ton for gasoline and 70 yuan per ton for diesel, resulting in a drop of 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel [1] - The average price of 92 octane gasoline has decreased from 7.8 yuan per liter at the beginning of the year to approximately 7.3 yuan, marking a cumulative decline of 0.5 yuan per liter [3] - The upcoming price adjustment window on October 27 may see further reductions in fuel prices, with estimates suggesting a decrease of 230 to 290 yuan per ton [3] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - International oil prices have seen significant declines, with WTI crude futures dropping to 57.328 USD per barrel and Brent crude futures to 61.547 USD per barrel [5] - Russia's maritime crude oil exports have reached a 28-month high, averaging 3.74 million barrels per day, contributing to the downward pressure on global oil prices [5] - OPEC has announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November as part of a gradual rollback of previous production cuts [5] Economic Impact - The transportation sector accounts for 53.5% of total logistics costs in China, with fuel expenses constituting nearly half of corporate costs, indicating that lower oil prices will lead to direct cost savings for businesses [7] - Some airlines have reduced fuel surcharges following the price drop, and there has been a notable increase in sales of fuel-related products on e-commerce platforms [7] - The decline in fuel prices has not significantly impacted the demand for new energy vehicles, with only a 3% decrease in orders observed [7] Regulatory Framework - China's refined oil pricing mechanism, in place since 2013, links domestic prices to international oil market fluctuations, with adjustments occurring when the price change rate reaches ±4% [9] - The mechanism includes a "floor price" and "ceiling price" to prevent excessive volatility, ensuring market stability while allowing for energy transition policies [9] Future Outlook - Future oil price trends will be influenced by multiple factors, including OPEC's production meeting on November 2, developments in US-China trade negotiations, potential US government shutdowns, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease, leading to lower consumer fuel costs, with a projected reduction of approximately 3 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92 gasoline [1][2] Pricing Mechanism - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is based on the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past 10 working days compared to the previous week [1] - If the price change per ton is less than 50 yuan, no adjustment will be made, and the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next pricing cycle [1] Recent Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 23 to October 13, 2025), international crude oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production plans, followed by a decline due to easing geopolitical premiums and trade tensions [1] - As of October 10, the reference crude oil price change rate was -1.81%, leading to a forecasted reduction of 75 yuan per ton for gasoline and 70 yuan per ton for diesel [1] Future Price Expectations - The upcoming pricing window on October 27, 2025, is anticipated to also reflect a downward trend in refined oil prices based on current international crude oil levels [2] - Analysts predict that the next round of price adjustments will likely continue the trend of "six increases, eight decreases, and six stasis" for 2025 [2] - Market sentiment is shifting towards risk aversion, with concerns over trade tariffs and a potential oversupply situation, suggesting further downward pressure on oil prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that there is a high probability of no adjustment in domestic refined oil retail prices during the upcoming price adjustment window on August 12 [1][2] - The current pricing mechanism for domestic refined oil is based on the comparison of the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past 10 working days with the previous week's average price [1] - As of August 11, the average price of reference crude oil was $68.48 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.30%, suggesting a potential increase of 20 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Zhaochuang Information predict that crude oil prices may continue to fluctuate, with market sentiment leaning towards bearish due to ongoing geopolitical factors and supply concerns [2] - The expectation of a strong supply side, driven by OPEC+ production increases, has contributed to the weak fluctuations in oil prices [1][2] - The adjustment threshold for refined oil prices is set at 50 yuan per ton, and the calculated increase of 20 yuan per ton is below this threshold, indicating no price change [1]

Core Points - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease by approximately 125 yuan per ton, marking the sixth reduction of the year, with consumers saving around 5 yuan for a full tank of 92 gasoline [1][2] - The pricing mechanism for refined oil is based on the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past ten working days compared to the previous week [1] - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are influenced by OPEC+'s unexpected production increase and renewed U.S. tariff issues, alongside potential supply risks from geopolitical tensions [1] Pricing Adjustments - The adjustment window for refined oil prices will open at 24:00 on July 15, with a predicted decrease in prices for both 92 gasoline and 0 diesel by about 0.1 yuan per liter [2] - Since the beginning of the year, there have been thirteen rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 95 yuan per ton for gasoline and 90 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2] - After this round of adjustments, the pricing pattern for 2025 is expected to shift to "six increases, six decreases, and two pauses" [2]

6月3日24时，国内新一轮成品油零售限价调整窗口将开启。多家机构预测，当天国内汽柴油价格小幅上 调概率较大。 据卓创资讯测算，截至5月29日收盘，国内第9个工作日参考原油变化率1.61%，预计汽、柴油价格上调 70元/吨，调价窗口6月3日24时。 参与方式超简单：关注新华网财经微信公众号，并在本篇文章下方的评论区留言。我 们将选取前两位留言的幸运儿，送上极具特色的「夏午唱游 蜀韵山河」端午风物礼 盒！先到先得哦！每位朋友仅可领取一份，可别错过啦～ 卓创资讯分析师于雅欣表示，端午假期到来，虽节日期间不计算在本计价周期的10个工作日之内，但原 油走势会继续对原油变化率带来影响。卓创资讯预计，市场关注美国对外贸易政策和欧佩克+增产问 题，油价波动性或增大，在距离调价窗口仅剩一个工作日的情况之下，本轮国内成品油零售限价压线上 调概率较大，但不排除因突发因素导致原油大幅下滑，进而成品油零售限价搁浅的可能。 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟预测，2025年6月3日24时成品油调价窗口将再度开启。按照国内成品油调 价机制，届时国内汽柴油上调幅度约为65元/吨，迎来年内第四次上调。若本次价格上调，以70升的油 箱来计算，私家车主加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease by approximately 230 yuan per ton, marking the fifth decline of the year, with 92-octane gasoline prices potentially falling back to 6 yuan per liter [1][2]. Pricing Mechanism - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is primarily based on the comparison of the weighted average price of international crude oil over the last 10 working days with the previous period's average [1]. Recent Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from April 30 to May 19), international crude oil prices experienced a rebound after an initial decline, influenced by OPEC+'s unexpected production increase and geopolitical factors [1]. - As of May 15, the reference crude oil price change rate was -5.23%, leading to the anticipated reduction in gasoline and diesel prices [1]. Consumer Impact - Analysts predict that if the price drop is implemented, the price of 92-octane gasoline will decrease by approximately 0.18 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by about 0.2 yuan per liter, resulting in lower fuel costs for consumers and logistics [2]. - For private car owners, filling a 70-liter tank will cost about 12 yuan less after the price adjustment [2]. Year-to-Date Adjustments - In 2023, there have been nine rounds of price adjustments, resulting in three increases, four decreases, and two instances of no change. After the upcoming adjustment, the pricing situation will shift to three increases, five decreases, and two no changes [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease, with a predicted reduction of approximately 230 yuan/ton, marking the fifth decline of the year, leading to a return of 92 gasoline prices to around 6 yuan/liter [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Mechanism - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is primarily based on the comparison of the weighted average price of international crude oil over the last 10 working days [1]. - If the change rate corresponds to an adjustment amount of less than 50 yuan/ton, gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next adjustment [1]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - During the current pricing cycle (April 30 to May 19), international crude oil prices experienced a rebound after a decline, influenced by OPEC+'s unexpected production increase and geopolitical factors in the Middle East [1]. - As of May 15, the reference crude oil change rate was -5.23%, indicating a downward adjustment for gasoline and diesel prices [1]. Group 3: Consumer Impact - If the price reduction is implemented, consumers will see a decrease in fuel costs for driving and logistics during the next pricing cycle (May 19 to June 3) [2]. - For private car owners, filling a 70-liter tank will cost approximately 12 yuan less after the adjustment [2]. Group 4: Year-to-Date Price Adjustments - In 2023, domestic oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, resulting in three increases, four decreases, and two instances of no change [2]. - After the upcoming adjustment, the overall pricing pattern for 2023 will shift to three increases, five decreases, and two instances of no change [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease by approximately 230 yuan per ton, marking the fifth decline of the year, with 92-octane gasoline prices returning to around 6 yuan per liter in multiple regions [1][2] Pricing Mechanism - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is based on the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past 10 working days compared to the previous week [1] - If the price change per ton is less than 50 yuan, no adjustment will be made, and the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next pricing cycle [1] Market Analysis - During the current pricing cycle (from April 30 to May 19), international crude oil prices experienced a rebound after an initial decline due to OPEC+ unexpectedly increasing production, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1] - The average international oil price has decreased compared to the previous cycle, resulting in a negative reference crude oil change rate of -5.23% as of May 15 [1] Consumer Impact - Analysts predict that if the price drop is implemented, the price of 92-octane gasoline will decrease by approximately 0.18 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel will drop by around 0.2 yuan per liter [2] - For consumers, this price adjustment will lower fuel costs for personal vehicles and logistics during the next pricing cycle (May 19 to June 3) [2] Historical Context - Since the beginning of the year, domestic oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, resulting in three increases, four decreases, and two instances of no change [2] - After the upcoming adjustment, the pricing situation for 2025 will shift to three increases, five decreases, and two instances of no change [2]