【现货】据Mysteel，截至1月28日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格14500元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格14300元/吨，日环比下跌50元/吨；基差205元/吨，日环比上涨75元/吨。 【原料】镍矿方面，印尼地区矿山出货有限，旧配额部分矿山MOMS系统审核未能通过，新配额ESDM 审批缓慢，镍矿升水大幅拉涨至28-32美元/湿吨。高镍生铁市场询单冷清，供方一口价报价多在1080- 1100元/镍(舱底含税)附近，长协报价多在升水10-20，市场低价资源较少；铬铁现货资源流通较少，叠 加铬铁供应增量放缓，铬铁零售价格仍较坚挺。 【供应】据Mysteel统计，12月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量326.05万吨，月环比减少23.26万吨，减幅 6.7%，同比减少5.3%；300系174.72万吨，月环比减少1.45万吨，减幅0.8%，同比减少5.9%。1月不锈钢 粗钢预计排产340.65万吨，月环比增加4.48%，同比增加19.05%；其中300系176.32万吨，月环比增加 0.92%，同比增加12.58%。节前钢厂加大减产力度，近期多有钢厂减停产消息传出。 【库存】社会库存转为小幅累积，仓单维持趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sulfur prices have surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market influences and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 5, 2025, sulfur prices have more than doubled compared to the beginning of the year, with major producers like Shandong Shenchi and Dongming Petrochemical raising prices to 4180 CNY/ton and 4350 CNY/ton respectively [3][4]. - The price increase is attributed to strong external market performance, with Qatar's sulfur contract price rising significantly, leading to higher import costs for China [4]. - Despite high port inventories of 2.2028 million tons, the market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of surveyed participants expecting further price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The phosphate fertilizer sector is recovering, with production capacity utilization rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, providing support for sulfur prices [6]. - However, rising sulfur prices are squeezing profit margins for major fertilizer companies like Yuntianhua, which reported a 21.88% decline in revenue due to increased production costs [7]. - The market is expected to maintain high price levels through early 2026, driven by seasonal demand for spring planting and limited supply growth [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term price corrections due to year-end inventory adjustments, the long-term outlook for sulfur prices remains bullish, with potential peaks as high as 5000 CNY/ton [6][9]. - The market is characterized by a cautious approach from end-users and traders, who may refrain from aggressive purchasing at record high prices [8]. - The supply side is expected to remain tight, with no new domestic production facilities and limited import growth due to cost pressures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of sulfur has surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market prices and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][5][12]. Price Trends - As of December 8, domestic sulfur manufacturers have raised prices significantly, with increases of up to 100 yuan/ton in a single day [1]. - The price of sulfur has more than doubled in 2025, with solid sulfur prices reaching 4150 yuan/ton and liquid sulfur at 4200 yuan/ton, compared to earlier prices of 1750 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [3][5]. - The total inventory of sulfur at Chinese ports is reported to be 220.28 million tons, yet this has not prevented price increases [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The surge in sulfur prices is attributed to strong external market performance, particularly from Qatar, where the December sulfur contract price rose to 495 USD/ton, significantly impacting import costs [5]. - Despite high inventory levels, market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of participants in a survey expressing a positive outlook for December [7]. - The phosphate fertilizer industry is recovering, with production rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, which supports sulfur demand [8]. Profitability and Cost Pressures - Leading companies in the fertilizer sector, such as Yuntianhua, are facing increased production costs due to rising sulfur prices, which have negatively impacted their profit margins [9]. - Yuntianhua reported a 21.88% decline in revenue and a 2.81% drop in net profit, attributing these challenges to high raw material costs [9]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high price levels, with predictions of sulfur prices potentially reaching 5000 yuan/ton in the future [1][10]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term price corrections may occur, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to limited supply growth and steady demand [11][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a fluctuating manner. The fundamentals of PX are weak, with supply increasing and demand not meeting expectations. PTA's fundamentals remain unchanged, with cost support and some plant maintenance plans, but downstream demand is weak. PR's downstream demand is average, with sufficient market supply and cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $64.05 per barrel, down 0.73%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.95 per barrel, down 0.76%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608.88 per ton, up 0.66%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $680.50 per ton, down 0.58%. The spot price of paraxylene PX CFR China Main Port was $836 per ton, up 0.20% [1]. - **PTA**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closed at 4,712 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,628 yuan per ton, up 0.22% [1]. - **PX**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closed at 6,772 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The spot price of paraxylene in the domestic market was 6,656 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closed at 5,868 yuan per ton, up 0.38%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,850 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on September 17, 2025 [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 42.42%, up 1.47 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 52.32%, down 12.75 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 102.68%, down 18.06 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.2 million - ton PTA device stopped on September 5 [2]. PX Summary - **Important Information**: Geopolitical factors and the Fed's strong expectation of interest - rate cuts support oil prices. The overnight rise of raw materials expanded, and the morning PX negotiation level strengthened, but the trading atmosphere declined in the late session. The domestic PX operating load is high, but many PTA devices have announced maintenance plans, increasing the game between cost and supply - demand [2]. - **Long - Short Logic**: The fundamentals are weak. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,772 yuan per ton, down 0.24%. The supply has increased due to the delay of Fujia Dahua's maintenance and the restart of some devices. Although it is the peak season for downstream polyester, new orders and loads are not as expected. Naphtha prices are strong, and PXN is expected to run weakly [2]. PTA Summary - **Long - Short Logic**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,712 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. Cost support and some PTA factory maintenance plans are beneficial, but downstream polyester filament sales are only 42%. A 4.5 million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. New maintenance plans from October to November have limited impact on the current market. The overall industry chain shows that the start - up of polyester raw materials has increased significantly, while the start - up of polyester and downstream has recovered slowly. The demand side has not actively destocked, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand has weakened [2]. PR Summary - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,830 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate, the supply - side quotation of bottle - chips is stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously [2]. - **Long - Short Logic**: The downstream demand is average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,868 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, the market supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious [2].