Core Viewpoint - Sulfur prices have surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market influences and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 5, 2025, sulfur prices have more than doubled compared to the beginning of the year, with major producers like Shandong Shenchi and Dongming Petrochemical raising prices to 4180 CNY/ton and 4350 CNY/ton respectively [3][4]. - The price increase is attributed to strong external market performance, with Qatar's sulfur contract price rising significantly, leading to higher import costs for China [4]. - Despite high port inventories of 2.2028 million tons, the market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of surveyed participants expecting further price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The phosphate fertilizer sector is recovering, with production capacity utilization rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, providing support for sulfur prices [6]. - However, rising sulfur prices are squeezing profit margins for major fertilizer companies like Yuntianhua, which reported a 21.88% decline in revenue due to increased production costs [7]. - The market is expected to maintain high price levels through early 2026, driven by seasonal demand for spring planting and limited supply growth [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term price corrections due to year-end inventory adjustments, the long-term outlook for sulfur prices remains bullish, with potential peaks as high as 5000 CNY/ton [6][9]. - The market is characterized by a cautious approach from end-users and traders, who may refrain from aggressive purchasing at record high prices [8]. - The supply side is expected to remain tight, with no new domestic production facilities and limited import growth due to cost pressures [9].

去年以来，硫磺的价格走势犹如化工界的一匹"黑马"。2025年即将结束之际，尽管港口库存高企，但硫磺价格仍创下年内新高，甚至打破了近十年的历史峰 值。这一明星化工品种正在经历价值重塑。 12月8日上午，国内硫磺厂家再次上调报价，一日之内涨幅高达100元/吨。 "争先恐后"的涨价潮直接将市场氛围推向了高潮。12月8日，山东神驰销售部门一位人士向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，公司当日硫磺报价再次上调，已至 4180元/吨。 同一天（12月8日），东明石化官网发布的产品价格显示，公司硫磺（固硫）4350元/吨，硫磺（液硫）报价4200元/吨。而对比东明石化今年1月1日发布的 硫磺（固硫）1750元/吨、硫磺（液硫）1700元/吨的报价，硫磺产品的价格在2025年内早已翻番。 隆众资讯数据显示，截至12月4日，镇江港主流颗粒硫磺价格较11月底上涨150元/吨，涨幅达3.79%，正式宣告市场进入高价位运行区间。 山东神驰销售人员表示，这轮行情的引爆点源于外盘市场的强势拉动。 在与《每日经济新闻》记者交流时，包括生产企业、资讯机构在内的多位人士表示，此次上涨背后是外盘价格强劲攀升导致进口成本倒挂，以及下游磷肥行 业开工回暖带来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a fluctuating manner. The fundamentals of PX are weak, with supply increasing and demand not meeting expectations. PTA's fundamentals remain unchanged, with cost support and some plant maintenance plans, but downstream demand is weak. PR's downstream demand is average, with sufficient market supply and cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $64.05 per barrel, down 0.73%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.95 per barrel, down 0.76%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608.88 per ton, up 0.66%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $680.50 per ton, down 0.58%. The spot price of paraxylene PX CFR China Main Port was $836 per ton, up 0.20% [1]. - **PTA**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closed at 4,712 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,628 yuan per ton, up 0.22% [1]. - **PX**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closed at 6,772 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The spot price of paraxylene in the domestic market was 6,656 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On September 17, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closed at 5,868 yuan per ton, up 0.38%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,850 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on September 17, 2025 [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 42.42%, up 1.47 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 52.32%, down 12.75 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 102.68%, down 18.06 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.2 million - ton PTA device stopped on September 5 [2]. PX Summary - **Important Information**: Geopolitical factors and the Fed's strong expectation of interest - rate cuts support oil prices. The overnight rise of raw materials expanded, and the morning PX negotiation level strengthened, but the trading atmosphere declined in the late session. The domestic PX operating load is high, but many PTA devices have announced maintenance plans, increasing the game between cost and supply - demand [2]. - **Long - Short Logic**: The fundamentals are weak. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,772 yuan per ton, down 0.24%. The supply has increased due to the delay of Fujia Dahua's maintenance and the restart of some devices. Although it is the peak season for downstream polyester, new orders and loads are not as expected. Naphtha prices are strong, and PXN is expected to run weakly [2]. PTA Summary - **Long - Short Logic**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,712 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. Cost support and some PTA factory maintenance plans are beneficial, but downstream polyester filament sales are only 42%. A 4.5 million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. New maintenance plans from October to November have limited impact on the current market. The overall industry chain shows that the start - up of polyester raw materials has increased significantly, while the start - up of polyester and downstream has recovered slowly. The demand side has not actively destocked, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand has weakened [2]. PR Summary - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,830 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate, the supply - side quotation of bottle - chips is stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously [2]. - **Long - Short Logic**: The downstream demand is average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,868 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, the market supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious [2].